Ben Bernanke & US Fed 01 (May 08 - Nov 10 )

Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby winston » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:14 am

kennynah wrote:nowadays....when the ah beng speaks.... we best listen more attentively...today, he spoke again...


I saw parts of it on CNBC. I was not impressed at all with the quality of the questions from the Congressmen and Congresswomen that they have...
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby millionairemind » Sat Nov 08, 2008 10:35 am

November 7, 2008, 11.26 pm (Singapore time)

Americans losing confidence in the Fed: survey

NEW YORK - Most Americans say the country's financial crisis has hurt their confidence in the Federal Reserve, according to a Reuters/University of Michigan survey released on Friday.

The poll found sentiment towards banks and other financial institutions, like insurance firms and mutual funds, has also deteriorated.

At the same time, the economic downturn has dented trust in the nation's financial authorities.

Twenty-six per cent of Americans said they were 'a lot less' confident in the Fed, which is the US central bank, now than five years ago. That was up from 7 per cent back in 1987, before Alan Greenspan began his 18-1/2-year term at the helm of the Fed.

An additional 29 per cent said they were 'a little less' confident in monetary policy-makers.

'The loss of confidence in both fiscal and monetary authorities was associated with less favourable levels of consumer sentiment,' said Richard Curtin, director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The data suggested that, while consumer confidence may experience a momentary rebound from the results of the presidential election, such a bounce will likely be fleeting.

'These honeymoons are based on the promise for improvement, more about people feeling better about the future policy than actually doing better,' Mr Curtin said. -- REUTERS
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby kennynah » Mon Nov 10, 2008 12:06 am

Twenty-six per cent of Americans said they were 'a lot less' confident in the Fed, which is the US central bank, now than five years ago. That was up from 7 per cent back in 1987, before Alan Greenspan began his 18-1/2-year term at the helm of the Fed.

i am not actually in total agreement with the bold words...that the fed is US central bank....it acts as if it is a central bank....but whether it is one...where it has solely a public interest, i am not sure...it is a private organization where it is also profit oriented???
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby millionairemind » Fri Nov 14, 2008 12:33 pm

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2008
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET DAILY

Uncle Sam's Credit Line Running Out?
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

The yield curve and credit-default swaps tell the same story: The U.S. can't borrow trillions without paying a price.

WHAT ONCE WAS UNTHINKABLE has come to pass this year: massive bailouts by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, with the extension of billions of the taxpayers' and the central bank's credit in so many new and untested schemes that you can't tell your acronyms or abbreviations without a scorecard.

Even more unbelievable is that some of the recipients of staggering sums are coming back for a second round. Or that the queue of petitioners grows by the day.

But what happens if the requests begin to strain the credit line of the world's most creditworthy borrower, the U.S. government itself? Unthinkable?

American International Group (ticker: AIG), which originally had to borrow what was a stunning $85 billion from the Fed to keep it from cratering in September, upped the total Sunday to $150 billion.

Monday, Fannie Mae (FNM) reported a $29 billion third-quarter loss, far in excess of forecasts, raising the specter that the mortgage giant may need more money after the Treasury pledged to inject $100 billion in preferred stock financing in September.

Meanwhile, American Express (AXP) received Fed approval to convert to a bank holding company, joining the likes of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS), that have a direct pipeline to borrow from the Fed or the Treasury's TARP, the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

And, of course, Detroit is looking for a credit line from Washington. General Motors (GM) Friday warned it could run out of cash next year without a government loan. GM plunged another 23% Monday, to 3.36, as several analysts helpfully recommended selling shares of the beleaguered auto maker that already had lost more than 85% of their value.

Visiting the White House Monday, President-elect Obama pressed President Bush to support emergency aid for GM and other auto makers. The prospect for federal aid for GM ironically weighed on its shares as one bearish analyst said the price of the bailout could be a wipeout of common holders.

Be that as it may, it's all adding up. If the late Sen. Everett Dirksen were around today, he might comment that a trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about real money.

Trillions are no hyperbole. The Treasury is set to borrow $550 billion in the current quarter alone and $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. "Near-term pressures on Treasury finances are much more intense than we had thought," Goldman Sachs economists commented when the government announced its borrowing projections last week.

It may finally be catching up with Uncle Sam. That's what the yield curve may be whispering. But some economists are too deaf, or dumb, to get it.

The yield curve simply is the graph of Treasury yields of increasing maturities, starting from one-month bills to 30-year bonds. The slope of the line typically is ascending -- positive in math terms -- because investors would want more to tie up their money for longer periods, all else being equal. Which it never is.

If they expect yields to rise in the future, they'll want a bigger premium to commit to longer maturities. Otherwise, they'd rather stay short and wait for more generous yields later on. Conversely, if they think rates will fall, investors will want to lock in today's yields for a longer period.

The Treasury yield curve -- from two to 10 years, which is how the bond market tracks it -- has rarely been steeper. The spread is up to 250 basis points (2.5 percentage points, a level matched only in the past quarter century in 2002 and 1992, at the trough of economic cycles.

Based on a simplistic reading of that history and the Cliff Notes version of theory, one economist whose main area of expertise is to get quoted by reporters even less knowledgeable than he, asserts such a steep yield curve typically reflects investors' anticipation of economic recovery. Never mind that the yield curve has steepened as the economy has worsened and prospects for recovery have diminished. Like the Bourbons, the French royal family up to the Revolution, he learns nothing and forgets nothing.

As with so much other things, something else is happening this year.

The steepening of the Treasury yield curve has been accompanied by an increase in the cost of insuring against default by the U.S. Treasury. It may come as a shock, but there are credit-default swaps on the U.S. government and they have become more expensive -- in tandem with an increase in the spread between two- and 10-year notes.

This link has been brought to light by Tim Backshall, the chief analyst of Credit Derivatives Research. The attraction of investors to the short end of the Treasury market is "juxtaposed with the massive oversupply and inflationary expectations of the longer end," he writes.

Backshall is not alone in this dire assessment. Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer for fixed income at Guggenheim Partners, a Los Angeles money manager, estimates that total Treasury borrowing for fiscal 2009 will total $1.5 trillion-$2 trillion. That was based on $700 billion for TARP, a $500 billion-$750 billion "cyclical deficit," an additional $500 billion stimulus program and some uncertain amount for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Minerd doubts that private savings in the U.S. and foreign purchases of Treasury debt will be sufficient to meet those government cash requirements. That leaves the Fed to take up the slack; that is, monetization of the debt.

However it comes about, Backshall's charts of the yield curve and the spread on U.S. Treasury CDS paint a dramatic picture. Both the yield spread and the cost of insuring debt moved up sharply together starting in September.

Let's recall what happened that month: the Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac bailouts, the AIG bailout and the Lehman Brothers failure. The two lines continued their parallel ascent with the announcement and ultimate passage of the TARP last month. And evidence mounted of an accelerating slide in growth.

Cutting through the technical jargon, the yield curve and the credit-default swaps market both indicate the markets are exacting a greater cost to lend to Uncle Sam. And it's not because of anticipated recovery, which would reduce, not increase, the cost of insuring Treasury debt against default.

All of which suggests America's credit line has its limits.

At the beginning of the Clinton administration in the early 1990s, adviser James Carville was stunned at the power the bond market had over the government. If he came back, Carville said he would want to come back as the bond market so he could scare everybody.

President-elect Obama may come to think Clinton had it easy by comparison.
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby millionairemind » Sun Nov 30, 2008 2:55 pm

An interesting article in this week's Ecnomist which is worth a read.

Plan C
Nov 27th 2008
From The Economist print edition

As their economy slides, America’s policymakers are turning to unconventional devices. Our first article looks at the bold new steps taken this week by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Our second examines policy in Europe

See Link for full story
http://www.economist.com/finance/displa ... d=12689745
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby millionairemind » Mon Dec 15, 2008 4:41 pm

From The Times
December 15, 2008

Radical US Federal Reserve action expected with rate cut
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor

The US Federal Reserve is tipped tomorrow to pave the way for it to take more extraordinary measures to kick-start the American economy after it cuts interest rates to an historic low of only 0.5 per cent. The Fed is expected to cut the key US official interest rate, its Fed Funds target rate, by another half-point from the present 1 per cent level that matches past record lows.

But with still lower official rates seen as unlikely to deliver much of an extra boost to stalled US growth, markets are on alert for the Fed to map out action through radical measures to pump funds into the economy.

Another cut in the official rate is seen as likely to prove mainly symbolic. This is because this official rate is in reality only a target for the cost to US banks of borrowing from each other overnight, through the Fed. In practice, distortions in the marketplace have already pushed the true rate at which the US banks can borrow overnight well below the Fed target, to levels approaching zero.

With serious practical dangers to the US economy likely to be posed by cutting rates much below 0.5 per cent, the Fed is likely to use its statement to set out alternative, aggressive action that it can take in place of conventional cuts in interest rates.

Measures open to Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, include a series of steps known by experts as “quantitative easing”, which is already being used unadvertised by the US central bank on a more limited scale. These could involve giving the American economy extra money through the Fed buying up commercial debt in bonds or asset-backed commercial paper held by US banks, or directly buying government bonds from the US Treasury. This would aim to drive up the amount of money in circulation and drive sharply downwards the true cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers.

The Fed is expected to make clear whether official rates will be pushed below 0.5 per cent amid fears that any such move would trigger a destabilising flood of money out of money market mutual funds that would no longer deliver any return — a development that could wreak havoc in US credit markets.
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby mocca_com » Wed Dec 17, 2008 7:41 am

Fed Cuts Rate to as Low as Zero, Shifts Policy Focus (Update3)
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By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres

Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve cut the main U.S. interest rate to as low as zero for the first time and shifted its focus to the amount and type of debt it buys, seeking to revive credit and end the longest slump in a quarter- century.

The Fed “will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in a statement in Washington. “Weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.”

Stocks soared, while Treasury notes rallied in anticipation the Fed will buy the securities to reduce borrowing costs for consumers and companies. Nine rate cuts in the prior 14 months and $1.4 trillion in emergency lending had failed to reverse the economic downturn. The Fed said today it will target a federal funds rate of between zero and 0.25 percent, a reduction from the 1 percent level that the Fed failed to hit.

Announcements of new lending programs or asset purchases will now be principal signals of policy, a senior Fed official said in a conference call with reporters. The central bank is considering whether to provide more information about the composition and targeted size of its balance sheet, the official said on condition of anonymity.

Stimulate Economy

“The focus of the committee’s policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet at a high level,” the FOMC said.

The dollar tumbled against the euro and yen. Stocks climbed, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 359.61 points, or 4.2 percent, to 8924.14.

“The Fed is sending a message that it will print money to an unlimited extent until it starts to see the economy expanding,” William Poole, former president of the St. Louis Fed and now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Poole is also a contributor to Bloomberg News.

The statement noted that the Fed has already announced it will purchase the debt issued or backed by government-chartered housing finance companies, and said the Fed is ready to expand the program. The central bank said it continues to weigh the potential benefits of buying longer-term Treasury securities.

Deepening Slump

The deepening economic slump pushed unemployment to 6.7 percent last month, the highest level since 1993, while builders broke ground on the fewest new homes since record-keeping began in 1947. Deflation is also emerging as a risk: consumer prices fell the most on record in November, the Labor Department said today.

Today’s vote was unanimous. In a related move, the Fed lowered the rate on direct loans to banks and securities dealers to 0.5 percent. It set the payment on the reserves that commercial banks hold at the Fed at 0.25 percent, down from 1 percent.

Fed policy makers twice pared the federal funds rate, or overnight lending rate, to 1 percent since adopting it as the main tool of monetary policy in the late 1980s. The 1 percent target held from June 2003 to June 2004, and again from the end of October to today.

The Bank of Japan has been the only major central bank in modern times to mix a policy of steep rate reductions with quantitative easing, or the strategy of injecting more reserves into the banking system than needed to keep the target rate at zero.

Spur Growth

Japan’s central bank kept its main rate at zero from 2001 to 2006 while flooding the banking system with extra cash to encourage lending, spur growth and overcome deflation. The abundant funds failed to prompt lending by commercial banks, which expanded their reserves at the central bank almost nine times by early 2004.

The senior central bank official said the Fed’s policy differs from Japan’s approach by focusing on purchases of short- term debt and other assets in constrained markets rather than on adding cash to the banking system.

The FOMC said that inflation pressures “have diminished appreciably.” The senior Fed official said deflation is not a major concern to the central bank.

Bernanke, acting with New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, has set up emergency loan programs aimed at averting a collapse of the nation’s credit markets. Geithner, President- elect Barack Obama’s pick for Treasury secretary, didn’t attend today’s meeting.

Swapping Dollars

The Fed has enlarged bank reserves, supported issuance of commercial paper and provided liquidity to government bond dealers. It is also swapping dollars with the European Central Bank and its other counterparts to supply banks in other countries.

The central bank is trying to lower mortgage rates by purchasing up to $100 billion of debt issued by housing-finance providers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the companies.

The moves have swelled the Fed’s balance sheet to $2.26 trillion from $868 billion in July 2007. That’s in addition to the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, which the U.S. Treasury has used since October to channel about $335 billion of capital injections into banks and other financial companies.

Still, the economy has crumbled, with employers cutting 533,000 jobs from payrolls in November for a total loss this year of 1.9 million, which more than erases the 2007 gain of 1.1 million.

Scarce Credit

Credit remains scarce in many markets and major financial institutions worldwide continue to report losses and writedowns totaling $994 billion.

The Fed may increase its asset purchases and lend against lower-quality debt should Treasury provide funding, the senior central bank official said.

Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, a St. Louis-based consultant, says the economy is probably shrinking at a 6.5 percent annual pace this quarter, which would be the biggest drop since 1980.

The firm forecasts a 4.2 percent annual contraction rate in the first quarter, returning to no growth in the second quarter and a 2.3 percent expansion rate in the second half of 2009.

Early this month, as a panel of leading U.S. economists declared the recession began in December 2007, Bernanke signaled he was ready to dig deeper into the central bank’s toolkit. He said he may use less conventional policies, such as buying Treasury securities, because his room to lower the main U.S. rate was “obviously limited.”

Flood of Funds

The federal funds target rate has weakened as a monetary policy tool because the Fed’s flood of funds has caused the average daily rate to trade below the policy goal every day since Oct. 10.

The gap between the target and the effective rate, or average daily market rate, has averaged about a half point since Sept. 12. The gap averaged just above zero from the start of this year through Sept. 2.

The Fed’s counterparts around the world have staged their own interest-rate cuts. The ECB has lowered its main rate to 2.5 percent this month from 4.25 percent in July, while the Bank of England reduced its rate to 2 percent this month from 5.75 percent in July.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday there’s a limit to how far the bank can cut interest rates and signaled policy makers may pause in January. “Do we have a feeling there is a limit to the decrease in rates? At this stage certainly yes,” Trichet told journalists in Frankfurt.

While the Fed can’t push interest rates below zero, “the second arrow in the Federal Reserve’s quiver -- the provision of liquidity -- remains effective,” Bernanke said in a Dec. 1 speech.

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at [email protected]; Craig Torres in Washington at [email protected];

Last Updated: December 16, 2008 17:33 EST
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby millionairemind » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:46 am

Here comes TARP Part II :D

Published January 14, 2009

Govt needs to mop up toxic assets: Fed chief
Remarks indicate he may be trying to influence opinion of lawmakers


(LONDON) US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke warned that a fiscal stimulus won't be enough to spur an economic recovery and that the government may need to buy or guarantee banks' tainted assets to revive growth.

'Fiscal actions are unlikely to promote a lasting recovery unless they are accompanied by strong measures to further stabilise and strengthen the financial system,' Mr Bernanke said at the London School of Economics. 'More capital injections and guarantees may become necessary to ensure stability and the normalisation of credit markets.'

Mr Bernanke's remarks indicate he may be seeking to influence deliberations among lawmakers and President-elect Barack Obama's economic aides on how to deploy the next US$350 billion of the financial- rescue fund approved in October.

While some Democrats have focused on offering aid to troubled homeowners, the Fed chief's comments show he's more concerned about a continued choking off of credit to companies and households.

The Fed chairman recommended three approaches on troubled assets. Public purchases of the bad assets are one possibility, as was originally planned under US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

The government could also agree to absorb, in exchange for warrants or a fee, part of the losses on a specified portfolio of troubled assets, he said. Regulators used that method recently with their bailout of Citigroup Inc.

Another measure 'would be to set up and capitalise so-called bad banks, which would purchase assets from financial institutions in exchange for cash and equity in the bad banks,' he said.

While the US Treasury has already channelled US$350 billion in taxpayer funds to recapitalise banks and rescue companies including American International Group Inc and Citigroup, financial stocks have been hammered in recent days amid deepening concern about credit losses.

Mr Bernanke's warning about toxic assets is 'a call to use the second half of TARP for what it was intended for', said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. 'It was sold as something to get the mortgage market functioning again, which is something Congress would like to see because that gets back to homeowners.'

Mr Obama is pressing Congress for a stimulus plan of about US$775 billion, including tax cuts and spending on everything from roads and schools to the energy network, to help pull the world's largest economy out of a slump that's in its second year.

Sounding a cautionary note however, the World Economic Forum (WEF), in a report yesterday, warned that massive government spending to counter the financial crisis could backfire.

The annual report on global risks, which this year focuses on the implications of the crisis that has hit banking and finance, concluded that 'the economic outlook for 2009 is a grim one for most economies'.

The WEF identified deteriorating government finances, a plunge in China's economy and threats to food and health from climate change among the major risks facing the the world today.

But the crux of the report was a prediction that 'massive' government spending to support ailing financial institutions hit by the credit crisis could sow the seeds of more problems in the future.

'One of the biggest risks is that short-term crisis fighting may induce businesses and governments to lose the long-term perspective on risk,' said one of the contributors, Daniel Hofmann, chief economist for insurer Zurich Financial Services.

The report - Global Risks 2009 - was released by the WEF, a business and academic think tank, ahead of its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland from Jan 28 to Feb 1. It said there is great danger in the world's varied approaches to global governance - essentially uncoordinated responses by governments to globally entwined problems. -- Bloomberg, AFP, Reuters
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby kennynah » Wed Jan 14, 2009 3:24 pm

now this is where the conspiracy theory about fed being a private bank controlled by invisible sources....and that all these market slumps have always been greatly influenced and caused by thisfed reserve bank...their objective is obviously to profit from such chaos....

just like such TARP programs will benefit fed...and when fed buys up seemingly toxic assets...

have u ever heard ben bernanke or greenspan, ever being asked about how fed should "repay" tax payers' money? i have not heard it directly before... it would like asking UOB...how they intend to distribute their earnings to the general public...
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Re: Ben Bernanke

Postby winston » Wed Feb 11, 2009 2:39 pm

Liquidity crisis has eased, says Bernanke

US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said special central bank programs aimed at easing a credit crunch have helped to ''relax the severe liquidity strains'' in markets.

Appearing before the House of Representatives committee on financial services, he said that measuring the impact of the Fed's programs ''is complicated by the fact that multiple factors affect market conditions.

''Nevertheless, we have been encouraged by the responses to these programs, including the reports and evaluations offered by market participants and analysts,'' he stated.

''Notably, our lending to financial institutions, together with actions taken by other agencies, has helped to relax the severe liquidity strains experienced by many firms and has been associated with considerable improvements in interbank lending markets.''

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