Russia 01 (May 08 - Jul 10)

Re: Russia

Postby winston » Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:14 pm

Why would Russia go up ? Funds flowing in ? Oil related companies ?

Russian Stocks May Rally 23% More This Year: Technical Analysis By William Mauldin

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s RTS Index, the world’s best share index in the past six months, may rally another 23 percent this year, based on technical analysis of moving averages by New York-based Auerbach Grayson & Co.

The 50-day moving average of RTS prices climbed above the 200-day exponential average this month, representing a “bullish cross,” according to Auerbach Grayson. The index’s rally from 836, representing a 50 percent retracement from this year’s high in June and January low, signals “bullish momentum” has returned, the brokerage said.

“A resumption of the uptrend in earnest has begun,” said Richard Ross, a technical analyst at Auerbach Grayson, which specializes in emerging and frontier markets and has research affiliates in 120 countries.

The RTS is likely “retest” the 1,180 level “by the late fall,” Ross said. The RTS fell 2.5 percent yesterday to 963.06, snapping seven-day rally. The RTS is close to “resistance” levels at about 979 and 994, based and the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, respectively, according to Bloomberg data and Auerbach Grayson.

“Once we consolidate prices in here and move back above these moving averages, that’s going to provide the catalyst for greater upside,” Ross said.

The 50-stock RTS has climbed 15 percent after closing at two-month low of 835.23 on July 10 as speculation the global recession is easing spurred a rally in oil prices. Russia is the world’s largest energy supplier. The RTS has risen 93 percent in the past six months as oil has almost doubled from this year’s lowest close in February.
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Re: Russia

Postby winston » Tue Aug 11, 2009 10:41 pm

Russian economy shrinks 10.9%

AFP - Wednesday, August 12MOSCOW (AFP) - - Russia's economy contracted 10.9 percent in the second quarter of 2009 from output in the same period last year, but increased 7.5 percent from output in the first quarter, initial data from the statistics office showed on Tuesday.

In the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) had fallen 9.8 percent on a 12-month basis.

The government is forecasting a contraction of up to 8.5 percent in GDP in 2009, in a dramatic end to the robust growth the country enjoyed over the last half decade on the back of high energy prices.

Russia has been hit harder than other major developing economies by the economic crisis which has shown up its failure to implement reform to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon exports.
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Re: Russia

Postby kennynah » Tue Aug 11, 2009 10:44 pm

one might attribute the current lack of strength in US indexes to this piece of data above (russia GDP shrinks in Q2) .... but merely my unsupported conjecture as /ES did a heavy downswing at 855pm(+8GMT) when this exact piece of news hit the wire this evening...
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Re: Russia

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Sep 02, 2009 9:37 pm

Yesterday marked the 70th anniversary of WWII and this Putin-speak makes me speechless:-

History, he said, was multi-faceted and claiming "as the Poles do" that the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop pact triggered the Second World War was like picking raisins from a mouldy bun. You had to see the whole context, he added.

U can read the whole article here:-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/6123485/Analysis-Vladimir-Putins-Poland-war-speech-will-go-down-a-storm-in-Russia.html
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Re: Russia

Postby winston » Sat Sep 12, 2009 4:01 pm

Russian Economy Poised for Recovery, Cargoes Show: Chart of Day
By Yuriy Humber and Paul Abelsky

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Russia is poised for an economic recovery after domestic cargo volumes, a leading indicator for growth, rebounded from the steepest slump since at least 2000.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the year-on-year change in an index of freight transport by rail, road, air and pipeline, in red, rebounded from a record low in April. Economic growth, in white, extended annual declines through the first half.

“The recovery in cargo turnover provides more proof of an improving economic outlook,” said Georgy Tarakanov, Moscow- based analyst at VTB Capital, the investment-banking unit of Russia’s second-biggest lender. “The slump is easing and that is seen in the rising volumes of rail shipments.”

The economy shrank a record 10.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, after declining 9.8 percent in the first, following 10 years of annual expansion averaging almost 7 percent. Domestic cargo volumes have rebounded 14 percent from a six-year low in April to 377.8 billion metric tons a kilometer (0.6 mile).

“The only accurate proxies that tell you the current state of affairs are railway cargo and power,” said Pavel Teplukhin, president of Troika Dialog, Russia’s oldest investment bank.

OAO Russian Railways, whose sales account for almost 3 percent of nominal gross domestic product, said cargo traffic advanced 2.5 percent in August from the previous month. The shipments fell 23 percent in the first half from a year before. The economy will contract 7.2 percent this year, according to the median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... CfVUrpskgY
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Re: Russia

Postby winston » Tue Sep 15, 2009 4:51 pm

The stock market still can fly at 10% interest rate ? :?

Russia Cuts Benchmark Rate to 10.5% to Buoy Recovery

Russia’s central bank lowered its main interest rates by a quarter percentage point after the world’s biggest energy exporter suffered a record economic contraction and as the nation faces a slow recovery.

Bank Rossii cut the refinancing rate to 10.5 percent from 10.75 percent and lowered the repurchase rate charged on central bank loans to 9.5 percent from 9.75 percent, effective from tomorrow.

The bank has cut the rates six times since April 24. It last lowered them by a quarter point on Aug. 10. Russian output shrank a record 10.9 percent last quarter after a decline in global trade undermined demand for the commodity-reliant nation’s exports of raw materials from steel to oil.

Policy makers are trying balance a faltering economy with annual inflation in excess of 10 percent while trying to offer ruble returns that keep the currency attractive.

The ruble weakened 0.7 percent to 30.8697 per dollar at 3:16 p.m. in Moscow and declined 0.5 percent against the target currency basket to 37.1850.
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Re: Russia

Postby winston » Wed Sep 23, 2009 8:08 am

Russia’s ‘Explosive’ Earnings May Spur Stock Surge (Update3)By Michael Patterson

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Russian stocks are poised to surge, extending an 88 percent rally this year, as the economy’s recovery spurs profits, analysts at UBS AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in reports today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 2EBiKRLku0
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Re: Russia

Postby kennynah » Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:09 pm

Medvedev says Russia economy to shrink by 7.5% in 2009
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Re: Russia

Postby winston » Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:08 am

Russian economy hit hard but not in dire straits

Russia was hit harder than expected by the global financial crisis, but Kremlin measures helped the country avoid the worst-case scenario, President Dmitry Medvedev said yesterday.

Russia's gross domestic product will drop by about 7.5 percent this year, compared with earlier forecasts of 3 to 3.5 percent, Medvedev said. Industrial production fell by nearly 14 percent in the first half of this year.

"I must admit that we sunk below our lowest expectations," Medvedev told state-owned television. "The real damage to our economy was far greater than anything predicted by ourselves, the World Bank and other organizations."

Russia is facing its first recession in a decade, with gross domestic product down by an annual 10.9 percent in the second quarter.

The recession followed a commodity prices crash, flagging foreign investment and a squeeze on credit markets.

Medvedev said Russia faces a significant budget deficit next year that will surpass the September figure of almost 5 per cent of GDP.

"But it's not a tragedy, not a disaster for the economy."

He also cited positive signs, including a sharp fall in inflation, the strengthening ruble and overall economic stability.

A recent rebound in oil prices has prompted Russian officials to give upbeat reports that the recession has bottomed out and that the country will start seeing moderate growth.

Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Re: Russia

Postby winston » Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:37 pm

Russian equities have soared to new highs for the year as the strengthening oil price and hopes of a global recovery established Moscow as the world's best-performing stock market this year.

The dollar-denominated RTS index closed on Monday at 1,428.06, up 4 per cent on the day and up 126 per cent since January 1.

The rouble-denominated Micex index closed at 1,357.44, up 3.7 per cent on the day and 119 per cent higher since the start of the year.


Source: Financial Times
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