InvestIdeas

Juz read this and think there are possibly money-making ideas from Dennis:-

Predictions: 9 For '09 From Dennis Kneale

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27955830

Predictions 3, 7 and 9 are pretty inviting ideas.

3. Banks reap billions on overdone writeoffs.
By late next year some big banks will realize ample profits on the damaged assets they wrote down so severely—the mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other arcane weapons of their own destruction.

7. Print media will survive.
In fact the Old Media may have a surprise resurgence of sorts, as advertising price cuts bring back sponsors and once-torrid online ad sales continue to slow down.

9. The next bubble begins.
By late next year, some brilliant mind on Wall Street will devise the next great black box. One guess: insurance annuities. One banker noted the other day that they have an awful lot of unrealized equity value, juicy and ripe for securitization.

Last nite, there was a big insurance rally.........and it seems Dennis' prediction is building up momemtum:-

From Bloomberg : Insurance Rally

The S&P 500 Financials Index added 8.6 percent for the steepest advance among 10 industry groups, as insurance companies climbed 14 percent collectively. Prudential jumped 35 percent to $28.52. MetLife gained 22 percent to $30.76. Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. each climbed at least 4.1 percent.

Hartford, Prudential, MetLife, Lincoln National Corp. and money manager Ameriprise Financial Inc. would benefit if the National Association of Insurance Commissioners opts to relax capital requirements for managers of variable annuities, UBS’s Andrew Kligerman wrote in a report today. The association is likely to reach a decision by year-end and could announce one as early as Dec. 9, Kligerman said.

I think the Insurance industry is far behind the banks in terms of efficiency:-
1) Their Operating expenses are very high
2) They have a Product that people dont like to buy.
3) Their Distribution Channels are very expensive and very inefficient.
4) The current low Interest Rate environment is not good for their portfolio as they invest a big chunk of their money in Fixed Income instruments

The relaxation of the capital requirements may be a good temporary catalyst for the life industry. It's like reducing the downpayment of of a mortgage to support the housing market..

i predict....hmmmm......someone will hit the state lottery.... some vegas casino may close shop....obama will start losing popularity votes.... lobbyists will stuff more money into congressmen's and senators' pockets..... auto industry will start introducing "no frills" affordable cars....less student gunslinging incidents...(bcos no money to pay for the bullets).... some healthcare providers and drug manufacturers will benefit from a bunch of depressed people... USD will weaken against Euros to about 1.4 (current 1.2+)... singapore will not have a power plant by 2009....some old man may actually survive beyond 2009.... singapore gambling dens will delay their opening ceremony...

Bespoke: Strategists’ 2009 S&P 500 price targets

“Bloomberg recently surveyed market strategists for their 2009 S&P 500 price targets, and collectively, they’re looking for a gain of 21.8% from the index’s current price level.

“As shown below, UBS is the most bullish of the group with a year-end 2009 price target of 1,300 (a 47.2% gain). UBS was the most bullish last year as well with a 2008 price target of 1,700. Goldman and Strategas are the second most bullish this year with price targets of 1,100. Credit Suisse has a target of 1,050 (for mid-year ‘09), Citi and HSBC are at 1,000, and Merrill Lynch is at 975. Merrill is the least bullish strategist of those surveyed, but they’re still looking for a gain of 10.4% from current levels.

“For those looking for direction from these strategists, their 2008 projections should be noted. All were looking for gains this year, and their targets at the start of the year are far above where the S&P 500 is currently trading.”

2008: The year in markets
U.S. indexes
Dow Jones Industrial Average -34%
S&P 500 -38%
Nasdaq -40%
Dow Jones Financials -55%
Amex Oil Index -37%

International indexes
Germany DAX -40%
FTSE 100 -31%
Japan Nikkei 225 -42%
China Shanghai Composite -65%
Mexico IPC -24%
Brazil Bovespa -41%

Currencies/commodities
Gold +5%
Crude -54%
Dollar index +6%
Pound vs. dollar -28%
Dollar vs. yen -18%

Hmmm..... A lot of 50% retracement. Now, which one will rebound the fastest ?

Or which one will continue to drop until it hits 80% ?

Just for kenny... here goes for 2009 ( I cannot see further than that) ...

We are headed for the Greater Depression... economy will NOT recover in 2009...deflation (and not inflation) will be the worry...housing prices will continue to decline...Fed's pump priming will fail...stock market has NOT bottomed - how about SPX 300 & Dow 4,000? (STI? well, it does not matter anymore, right?) ...gold will not be safe haven... US$ will NOT collapse... US consumer will see positive savings rate (no more help from US consumption! - bad news for Asian exports)... California will be in serious financial trouble (Arnie - you will NOT be back)...corporate bond mkt is NOT a bargain...GM and Chrysler facing real threat of bankruptcy (Ford possibly survive even without govt help)...Protectionism (very bad news for Singapore) & currency manipulation...

All the above can happen if Obama & his bunch of merry men continue on their current course of action.

As things now stand, Singapore ought to be very concerned.

And I am not even a bear... just a bull in hibernation

P.s. As with all guesstimates, the above should be taken with a generous pinch of salt.

Dol :

you have a grim view indeed....noted....and thanks for sharing....