US - 2009 Predictions

Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby kennynah » Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:33 pm

you know....recently, i have been chatting with americans on my trading platform, throughout the US trading hours for the last 2 weeks.... it is from these various chatters that i come to sample how disgusted they have been about their government, treasury dept, fed reserve bank, state of US dollar, and how this latest financial crisis have so badly affected many americans.

by the way, some of these fellow traders trade the big spfutures contracts, some mini-sp500, some T-bills, gold futures, stocks, options; the works...some with 30 years of trading experiences, some rookies, men and women...overall, some 1000 actively log on to this chat room with some 10s actively chatting...so, wide enuf an array of profile for me to "listen" to their woes...

just last night, there were comments about food stamps being handed out to americans who are barely above sustenance levels. the actual figure escapes me now; IIRC,either 1 in 4 or 1 in 8....can you beat that? food stamps like those dished out to Jews during nazi occupation... how can they be as rich as imagined by foreigners so far away ?

in a land so far away, many people still mistake US to be a land of gold (金山) mountains... this cannot be further from the truth... many common americans are suffering..no jobs, no prospect of rapid economic recovery...and some americans still foolishly want a strong US dollar now ???
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Nov 18, 2009 9:15 am

Hi K
This is enlightening :
just last night, there were comments about food stamps being handed out to americans who are barely above sustenance levels. the actual figure escapes me now; IIRC,either 1 in 4 or 1 in 8....can you beat that? food stamps like those dished out to Jews during nazi occupation... how can they be as rich as imagined by foreigners so far away ?

And domestic politics will weigh heavily on the country. Moreover, so much US infrastructure is crumbling and many big states are bankrupt.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby winston » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:14 pm

Good choice. Jamie Dimon would command some respect unlike Geitner ..

Dimon seen as successor to Geithner: report

(Reuters) - Several U.S. policy makers consider JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon as a potential successor to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the New York Post said, citing sources.

Dimon "would love to serve his country," the paper quoted people familiar with his thinking as saying.

JPMorgan could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters outside regular U.S. business hours.

Geithner endured a grilling last week before the U.S. Congress over his role in the rescue of American International Group Inc in 2008, when he was president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/ ... pnewsearly
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Nov 24, 2009 5:14 pm

From Thomas Friedman's "Advice from Grandma" :
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/opinion/22friedman.html?_r=1&em

I'm posting our shared "less optimism" about the US here:-
Why? Because at least six things have come together to fracture our public space and paralyze our ability to forge optimal solutions:
1) Money in politics has become so pervasive that lawmakers have to spend most of their time raising it, selling their souls to those who have it or defending themselves from the smallest interest groups with deep pockets that can trump the national interest.

2) The gerrymandering of political districts means politicians of each party can now choose their own voters and never have to appeal to the center.

3) The cable TV culture encourages shouting and segregating people into their own political echo chambers.

4) A permanent presidential campaign leaves little time for governing.

5) The Internet, which, at its best, provides a check on elites and establishments and opens the way for new voices and, which, at its worst provides a home for every extreme view and spawns digital lynch mobs from across the political spectrum that attack anyone who departs from their specific orthodoxy.

6) A U.S. business community that has become so globalized that it only comes to Washington to lobby for its own narrow interests; it rarely speaks out anymore in defense of national issues like health care, education and open markets.

According to him, the solution is :-
The real answer is that we need better citizens. We need citizens who will convey to their leaders that they are ready to sacrifice, even pay, yes, higher taxes, and will not punish politicians who ask them to do the hard things. Otherwise, folks, we’re in trouble.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Thu Nov 26, 2009 11:06 pm

From CNBC:-
With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher.


So the debt is ........................US$12,000,000,000,000.
By 2019, the interest payable is ...... S$700,000,000,000.
Some1 on CNBC said that VAT or GST is on the agenda.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby KimHuat » Fri Nov 27, 2009 10:53 am

Lena,
Looks like your HK fortune teller has woke up. With the Dubai World saga unfolding, could his prediction for 2009 coming true!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Fri Nov 27, 2009 4:50 pm

Hi KimHuat :D
I think he was off the mark by 1 month but that's good enough for me :lol: :lol:
I have been sidelining my positions since DOW hit 9000 to 9400. 2nite's US market will be heart-stopping for some traders.
Now I gonna check if he foretold a quick rebound ;) after the plunge.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Sat Nov 28, 2009 9:15 pm

I promise to look up the HK soothsayer's prediction.
Wow, it's going to be a sharp spikey recovery from 最差 to 最好 :o .
So, how :shock:
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Mon Nov 30, 2009 4:04 pm

In "market guru", there is no thread on Bill Gates. But I had just caught him on Bloomberg TV.
BloombergTV reported that on NBC V, he said that the US economy is now in a "plateau". He did not think that the recovery will go back to the previous excessive levels - household debt, household consumption, financial excesses etc.
But I wonder if the "plateau" is the size of Ayers Rock, which would mean that the US economy won't be going anywhere for a pretty long time.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby Poles » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:43 pm

LenaHuat wrote:In "market guru", there is no thread on Bill Gates. But I had just caught him on Bloomberg TV.
BloombergTV reported that on NBC V, he said that the US economy is now in a "plateau". He did not think that the recovery will go back to the previous excessive levels - household debt, household consumption, financial excesses etc.
But I wonder if the "plateau" is the size of Ayers Rock, which would mean that the US economy won't be going anywhere for a pretty long time.


it could meant life style change for the better....more walking, cycling, re-cycling, re-work, repair , relax & etc......hence less $$ spent.......

Bill Gates: "The Microsoft co-founder also mentioned that he doesn’t spend all day using technology and that “All these tools of tech waste our time if we’re not careful.”

Will Bill Gates lead to change??
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