US - 2009 Predictions

Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:35 pm

In 1985, Quincy Jones told the superstars who turned up in stretch limousines to record MJ's "We are the World" to "check their ego at the door". I'm doing this right now by refreshing this thread. :lol: :lol:
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby OE2008 » Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:53 pm

An e-wave practitioner, whom I have followed over the years, has been calling the top since SPX hit 956. All in, he had called 4 tops over the past 4 months since Jun 09. Yesterday, he called a top again, this time at SPX 1101. His past track records have been mixed and he tends to have a bearish bias. Without doubt he has a huge ego to go alongside with the conviction of his calls. With stringent money management and battled worn cut loss mentality, he is likely to remain solvent longer than the market can stay irrational.

Main stream e-wavers, including EWI, have been awaiting the start of Primary wave 3 which is devastating if it were to come about. Just imagine, Primary wave 1 was from SPX 1576 to 667. In the meantime, many are frustrated and stressed and some have raised doubts on the validity of this long term count.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:51 pm

Yesterday, I failed to read this article several times but 2day it had surfaced as the "Most Mailed" article from MarketWatch :-
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-soul-is-lost-and-collapse-is-inevitable-2009-10-20
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:34 pm

In the future, the US consumer will be (from the Rand Orgn):-

Image

In the order of descending numbers, the Latinos will consist of Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, others.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:49 pm

OE2008 wrote:An e-wave practitioner, whom I have followed over the years, has been calling the top since SPX hit 956. All in, he had called 4 tops over the past 4 months since Jun 09. Yesterday, he called a top again, this time at SPX 1101. His past track records have been mixed and he tends to have a bearish bias. Without doubt he has a huge ego to go alongside with the conviction of his calls. With stringent money management and battled worn cut loss mentality, he is likely to remain solvent longer than the market can stay irrational.

Main stream e-wavers, including EWI, have been awaiting the start of Primary wave 3 which is devastating if it were to come about. Just imagine, Primary wave 1 was from SPX 1576 to 667. In the meantime, many are frustrated and stressed and some have raised doubts on the validity of this long term count.


With patience and stringent money management, I suppose I am less 'trigger-happy' than Winston.
I'm still bidding my time.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Oct 28, 2009 4:28 pm

LenaHuat wrote:In the future, the US consumer will be (from the Rand Orgn):-

Image

In the order of descending numbers, the Latinos will consist of Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, others.


CNN has revamped its home page and there is now a new column "Latinos In America". They will replace African Americans as the largest minority group next year. Pax South America.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:32 pm

Since August, I've commented about this 'dark' mood in the US. This darkness is not lifting.
Read these 2 articles:
(a) US Governed by Callous Children

(b) Hard Times in the City of Sin

These are very trying times for the US economy.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:43 pm

I've been posting my grave concerns abt the future of the US for some time now - the overstatement of the GDP figure, the loss of R&D talent, the demographic changes that have already taken place, the lack of leadership in the political and business strata etc. :evil:

Well, here's another sober story from the BusinessWeek:-
GDP was a mirage
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:48 am

IMHO, this is a landmark speech by Prof Volcker (from Reuters):-
NAPLES, Fla., Nov 2 (Reuters) - White House economic adviser Paul Volcker said his meeting on Monday with President Barack Obama focused in part on reducing U.S. economic reliance on consumer spending.

The alternatives to help bolster future economic growth include boosting exports, applying innovative technology to green issues and improving the nation's infrastructure, Volcker said.

The former Federal Reserve chairman, who now heads the White House Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said Obama understands that "We cannot have so much consumption."

Consumer spending accounted for 70 percent of the U.S. economy before last year's economic meltdown, a level that Volcker said was sustained only by "the magic of financial engineering."

"We cannot rebuild the economy to the tune of 70 percent consumption or housing booms. It will just break down again," Volcker said.


There are, I think, grave implications from this statement to investors. I will straighten my brainwaves after my Starbucks fix...gotta get one now :lol: :lol:
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Nov 04, 2009 7:28 pm

Whilst watching German Chancellor Merkel spoke to the Joint House of Congress, a TV commentator said that exports constitute some 40% of German GDP. This is almost the same proportion for the Chinese economy. Likewise, their domestic consumer consumption is around 1/3 of GDP.

For the US, net exports is negative as evidenced by their trade deficit. The US economy is some 7 to 8 times the size of the Chinese. If the US restructures just by boosting exports to 5% of GDP, both the Chinese and German domestic consumption need to be raised to around 60% each (assuming that there are just 3 nations in the trade bloc).

Moreoever, there will be more trade friction as the US exports more :evil: .

What does this portend for a small export-reliant economy like Singapore?? I think I to gotta buy more Genting shares :lol: :lol:
Or are there Singapore listed companies who might have a role or niche as a infrastructural player in the US?

Juz some stray thoughts.
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