US - 2009 Predictions

Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Fri Oct 02, 2009 8:49 am

My 2nd post in this thread 2day.
Actually I've called it for the year, achieved my targetted returns and are wondering if I should :

(a) be destructive in this forum, that is refresh the Michael Jackson thread or
(b) be entertaining in this forum, start a new thread on "Pop Up Fantasy books by paper engineers" or
(c) be a nagger, presumably like Michelle Obama, and repeat myself :lol: :lol:
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby OE2008 » Fri Oct 02, 2009 9:51 am

Hi Lena,

Diversity of views must always be respected. Haha, so no worry, keep on repeating. Some may be hard of hearing; so reminders are always needed. Reminds me of my children :lol:
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:31 pm

Hi OE2008 and Some Forumers (who had sent stealth msg to me)
Thanks a million for your generous and kind remarks.
I ended up doing all 3 things :lol: :lol: :lol:

IMHO, the US banks hve taken government equity and practically just hatched on it. Have they unwound all those derivatives?? NO, they are just bidding their time for these lethal derivative contracts to mature and run their courses. And when they do, they have to stomach the write-offs.

Nothing much as changed on WallStreet and for most professional equity investors :twisted: These mighty minds are still evil :twisted: :twisted: .

Last nite, I watched Conan O'Brien and Michael Moore's clip abt Ronald Reagan's hand in this evil development is revealing. Watch that Merill Lynch guy beside President Reagan:
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:03 am

LenaHuat wrote on 4 Sep 2009 wrote:I see a big bear trap ahead. Be very careful abt the US market. The US labor market is seriously in a deep cesspool. The employment landscape is structurally changed in many ways. I'm too lazy to type out the issues here but U can read them on ABCNews, CBCNews etc. Capital expenditure/investments in the pte sector have pretty much dried up.


Since my post, the S&P has gone up 4%.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby kennynah » Fri Oct 09, 2009 4:14 am

i am happy to know you are right...again....

(provided i didnt misunderstand what was written in the above post)
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Fri Oct 09, 2009 8:08 pm

Hi K :D
The jury's still out there :idea: I had written that I was prepared to give up 10% gain as I thought the downside risk is much higher than this. 2date (1 month after the post), I had foregone 4% gain.

I had just heard Ichan on CNBC. Both of us are waiting for the same results :lol: :lol:, a double dip.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby winston » Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:26 am

BNP strategist charts `12 exciting months' ahead
by Katherine Ng, The Standard HK

Although there are signs of an economic recovery, BNP Paribas Wealth Management said it does not expect the United States to exit from its stimulus policy next year.

There will be no rate hike in 2010 and possibly beyond, said senior investment strategist Andrew Freris.

Because of such uncertainty, equity markets will continue to be weak and volatile next year despite the Asian stock rally this year, Freris told The Standard.

"As long as unemployment stays high in the United States at near 10 percent, interest rates will not go up."

The US Federal Reserve's policy to keep rates down indicates a threat of inflation, and official interest rates look set to stay unchanged for a long time, leaving economies weak and concerned about inflation, Freris said. "It will be an exciting and volatile 12 months ahead."

China is doing better, he said, but a tightening policy has already been launched and credit will probably be tightened in November or December.

"Countries in Asia such as India and China are already increasing their interest rates unofficially and indirectly," the strategist noted. "During the past three to five months, you saw the SHIBOR [Shanghai interbank offered rate] of two- to five-year bonds going up by about 80 to 160 basis points. Together with all the bond sales by the central bank, China has been effectively taking out liquidity."

However, when everything is factored in, Freris said some markets such as China and India are already well-valued and investors should be cautious and adopt a strategy of small, progressive exposure to equities.

"They could take profit some of the time," he added.

Freris suggested "averaging out" and "focusing on the bigger market."

For other investment such as bonds and foreign exchange, he advised a selective mode in European and US corporate bonds which have a yield of 3.2 to 5.2 percent.

He suggested avoiding government bonds as their yields will continue to face pressure.

He also sees the US dollar remaining weak but is bullish on the euro and yen. Next year will not be spectacular, but investors could take a gradual exposure to equities and adopt cautious strategies and a balanced portfolio to ride the situation, Freris said.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 91012&fc=1
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Thu Oct 15, 2009 1:02 pm

I've foregone 7.5% profit since my 4 Sep posting. I will review my directional position when it hits 10%. Is the bear in death throes??? I will review my directional position when it hits 10%.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby winston » Thu Oct 15, 2009 5:05 pm

Whenever I review my directional position, I always get into trouble :?
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Fri Oct 16, 2009 4:05 pm

Read this CBCNews abt : "Small Investors Sit Out Wall St. Rebound"

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/15/politics/washingtonpost/main5385774.shtml

The BBs profit at the expense of the small investors. The BBs exit the market only when the shoals of small investors are many feet deep in the market.

Is this the reason why the US market is not correcting??
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