US - 2009 Predictions

[LenaHuat]

I read this article via a CNN link at Larry King Live's Blog :-
70 Percent of Young Americans are unfit for military duty

Either they are too obese, fail entrance exams or have run-ins with the law
The babyboomers are retiring or slowing down and these young Americans aren't up to the scratch to inherit a great nation

[OE2008]

Robert Prechter on CNBC.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1319011626&play=1

He is super bullish on US Dollar. He was early in his August 09 call.

[LenaHuat]

Neither Kinokuniya nor Borders has flown his book "Conquer the Crash" into Singapore.

Does any1 think the big US banks will be re-sized or dismantled forcibly?
Seems like Congress is pretty serious abt this. I support this. They have tentacles in so many countries.
So many derivative contracts are inter-linked, strung around the globe and are embedded in many large instituitional portfolios.

[millionairemind]

Neither Kinokuniya nor Borders has flown his book "Conquer the Crash" into Singapore.

Does any1 think the big US banks will be re-sized or dismantled forcibly?
Seems like Congress is pretty serious abt this. I support this. They have tentacles in so many countries.
So many derivative contracts are inter-linked, strung around the globe and are embedded in many large instituitional portfolios.

Perhaps Citi group and AIG.. I can't see how the others will be dismantled since they are no longer in the clutches of the US gahmen.

Blankfein will fight tooth and nail to avoid breaking up.. cos' Goldman is nothing but a giant hedge fund with superb computing prowess.

[LenaHuat]

Hi MM
Yes, I agree with you on Citigroup and AIG. I never thought Citigroup has any 'value-added' in a very crowded banking community. It was just a cluster of disparate parts and no top gun in the org really had a good idea what it is all about less manage it. It just waddled along with the crowd. I always thought it should be left to fail.

As to AIG, well, it should be nationalized in every sense of the word. Not just equity injection.

Goldman Sachs, yes, is in a very special class of its own. It's a strategic US asset. Remember I once wrote in the GS thread that I thought this is so and you commented something along this line - "Don't know whether GS will be ard"

[millionairemind]

Lena,

US is dragging on its feet on banking reforms. I think its got alot to do with the powerful lobbying done by the financial industry on the banking/finance oversight committee.

The Economist carried a good article on the work that has already begun in the UK/Europe to split the TOO BIG TO FAIL BANKS. Amazing that the Yankees got outflanked this time around.

Europe's troubled banks
The muscles from Brussels

Nov 5th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Decisive action on zombie banks from…the European Commission
http://www.economist.com/businessfinanc ... d=14807083

Cheers,
mm

[kennynah]

this is all too difficult for me to comprehend.... my 8086 computing brain can only absorb and understand thus much....

let them all fail and a new world order will arise....surely...no doubt...

i was just telling a friend that a company's stock price says it all....C, up until today, have not achieved a fraction of its pre-crisis value when compared to GS, JPM, or even BAC.... it tells a story...a bad one at that.... maybe, in the years ahead, if it doesnt collapse by then, it could regain its glorious global presence... but until then, it remains as a weak counter, by the sheer value market participants give it now...

GS... well...i dont know them personally, but they sure look formidable today... having braved this crisis almost unscathed...it appears poised to be a banking entity to be reckoned with...no matter how much vomit we may all throw at it.... the rich doesn't really give a damn...

banking reforms is a necessary step...but i repeat what L said... US can truly recover from this overleveraging, by earning its way out...through producing top class products and services...that the world desires... this is the only way out... not thru their unseizing printing of money ....this may be a stop gap measure, but it isn't a long term solution...

[LenaHuat]

Hi K
Wow, your avatar is so ethereal
I'm in total agreement with what you have written. It's a neat piece of thought.
GS walks along the corridors of much power and many powers, internationally. It is a US strategic asset, critical for US interests. I do have a very healthy respect for GS.

Yes, the US must work and produce its way out of this mess. But I think the US has been structurally altered permanently in some ways, albeit like what those auditors of published accounts say, "permanent diminution". Firstly, labor. There will be higher structural permanet unemployment in some communities, especially the African-American ones in the dust and Bible belts. Secondly, small businesses have been severely affected and many will not come back. New ones will not sprout because the future is not with them.

[LenaHuat]

For some 3 months, I have been posting articles about my concern about the competitiveness of the US and its ability to innovate and manufacture new products. I don't share Warren Buffet's and Bill Gates' unadulterated optimism about the US. It's going to be a long and difficult climb to recover ground.
Here's one more article from Newsweek about the "Decline of Western Innovation - Why America is falling behind and how to fix it".
http://www.newsweek.com/id/222979

[LenaHuat]

2nd post 2day in this thread.
Do you believe this CBC report : "1 in 7 American went hungry in 2008?"
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/16/national/main5673056.shtml?tag=stack