US - 2009 Predictions

Re: US - Economic Data & News (Feb 09 - Apr 09)

Postby -dol- » Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:34 am

kenny,

I am being very reluctantly led to consider such possibilities.

Therefore, I would welcome all-comers to shoot them down and give us a brighter picture.

Cheers!
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice! Please do your own research and due diligence.
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Re: US - Economic Data & News (Feb 09 - Apr 09)

Postby winston » Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:53 am

Hi dol,

I agree with most of your assessment of the situation. I think this could be a long one. At least another 2.5 years of slowdown. Stockmarkets may lead the economy by 6 months to a year though .

Although the news will continue to be bleak, I'm still trying to look for special situations to make some coffee money. They include:-
1) trying to see where the tons of cash on the sidelines would be going to ...
2) trying to see whether the Chinese markets can decouple from the world for a while, to make it worth while to trade it. This would mean trading the A50 or CSI indices listed in HK.
3) trying to uncover opportunities to trade the market ( "short then cover" rather than "buy then sell" )

I always enjoy your kind insights !

Take care,
Winston
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:58 am

Some1 in CNBC now predicts BoA and Citigroup will be gone in a year's time :evil: I think C will too.
Nationalization of major US banks seems to be on the table agenda on and off. It's anguish to see this fin tsunami taking on so many victims.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby kennynah » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:37 pm

i concur with the possibility of more banks going turtle up in the months ahead... and that can happen without any advance warning...

the risks of my C bullish position is not unaccounted for.... and i am not one to encourage anyone to take on such risks without first being prepared to accept the consequences...

so far, the entire stock market situation looks rather bleak...and i recall that some sage, said..."i buy when others fear"..... isn't that the mantra of those ardent fans of warren buffet? or is it that it is useful only when convenient ? hahaha... 8-)
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby OE2008 » Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:41 pm

European Banks are selling off. Are they in trouble and rushing to buy back the USD? The knock on effects are bad. Equities in most markets were sold down today.
See article below:-

============================================================================

Denninger Tonight Regarding the Raping of Futures and FX Tonight...

I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to.

Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.

It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.

At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company.

There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation.

Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."

The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.

To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy.

Unfortunately.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Feb 18, 2009 8:29 am

Hi OE2008
Welcome back. :)
Last week, I posted a msg in the "USD" thread abt the strengthening of the USD due to the relative weakness of the Euro. The USD will strengthen further cuz the Yen is so weak. Look at the idiots and drunkard in power in Japan.

Last Sunday nite, I watched Sissy Chen's TV talkshow in which there was a segmental report on Economics Nobel Prize winner, Robert Mondale's speeches in HK. He urged urgent X-continental governmental co-operation to stablize the USD-Euro-Yen within trading bands. Failure to do so will be catastrophic as he predicted that this is one of 4 key measures to recover from the global fin tsunami.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby OE2008 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:12 am

Hi LenaH,

I make regular visits and read most of the postings. This is a more serious forum with quality postings/opinions. Dont have much to contribute, so avoided poluting with more noise.

I am still a bear and have avoided further punishments by the sell down. Still very much a trader's market with enough opportunities for the bulls as well as bears to scalp some pocket money. Not for me though.

On predicting 2009 direction, I heard a TA analysis on CNBC this afternoon, based on e-wave which says the S&P is on a 5-wave down leg which is the C of the ABC correction from Mar 2000. C started from Oct 2007. There is a bright side, the bottom is near. IMO, this is expected around May/Jun which should see a more sustained rally. So much for prediction :oops:

Btw, USA has become a socialist country. President Obama is another do-gooder and his Administration has initiated another string of bailouts. He really does not have much choice. Much of the mess were made for him to clean up. If his efforts fail, the D word shall follow soon.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:45 pm

Read the Zaobao 2day and noted ex-President Clinton's forecast. He anticipatedthe US economy to recover in 12 - 15 months ' time (that would mean 2010). He would be surprised if it took 2 years.
He would also be surprised if it took 6 months.

Ignore this pollution :?:
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby mojo_ » Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:16 pm

Actions to help Survive Worldwide Financial Meltdown

1. Convert all liquid assets to other liquids - invest in personal water, freshwater stills, fuel, evacuated tube solar hot water systems or just learn how to make your own, rainwater catchment systems and greywater recycling are all good places to start. And if the financial crisis doesnt show up, you’ll still be ahead of the curve.

2. Water filters - learn to use them. as infrastructure fails, so goes the water. otherwise, its drink pee for u n me.

3. Mosquito nets - this is more of a global warming thing. but everyone should have one anyway.

4. Get Religion - Religions generally do pretty well at keeping everyone working as a group - until the koolaid. particularly beneficial if the community owns its own farmland, and can defend it against non-believers.

5. Stick with intelligent people - avoid the strong and stupid. They may have good short term rates, but their long term investments usually get killed off before they can get off the ground.

6. Dont hold cash: spend it - get rid of cash. the staple of every financial meltdown and apocalyptic book or movie is the sudden uselessness of cash. Guns and food seem to be popular alternatives. and enslaved citizens you can entice to work for food crumbs.

7. Join the Army - This is a better point than it may seem at first. Armies throughout history have been one of the first off the cuff solutions to severe economic problems. Adrenaline keeps the hunger pangs down.. for awhile, at least. Plus, there is free food… if you fight.

8. Intermarry - If you are in the survival game for the long haul, this is a very good suggestion: focus on the gene pool.

9. Food for Survival - now, survival food is a tricky area to manage. The best bet is to follow the example of locavores and locavolts: no, not the trendy yuppie franchise and goat cheese eclairs, but rather, the do-it-yourselfers. As in, get yourself a farm. But the real qiestion is, what type of food will be best in a worldwide financial meltdown? Things like rice, potatoes, grains, and starches are important, because they are big imports, at least in the US, so their availability will decrease. Rice and beans in particular create a full protein when used together, and they last a long time without refridgeration. But dont forget citrus or a source of vitamin c, vitamin d for ricketts, and… well, the list goes on. For best resources, study the journals of explorers such as Shackleton, or the desert explorers, to find out what might be best for you.

10. Power - it might seem that power is very important to survival, but actually, its a luxury. What is more important is listed above, ie, the all important WATER FILTER. Nevertheless, for radio contact or other small uses, a simple solar panel/car battery setup is cheap, and lasts. Boat liveaboards have used them in some cases even before the early “hippies” did. Wind turbines are also ok, but they are mechanical, and are used best for simple things like water pumping, not electrical generation.

11. Water heating - lay in a supply of Evacuated Tube Solar Hot Water heaters. These things crank water heat up to 280 deg f. on a Minnesota winter day. Which can be a problem in the summer months. They are fragile, though, and once you run out, the manufacturers wont be around to deliver to your doorstep.
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Re: US 2009 Predictions

Postby LenaHuat » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:42 pm

OE2008 on 19 Feb 2009 wrote:Hi LenaH,

I make regular visits and read most of the postings. This is a more serious forum with quality postings/opinions. Dont have much to contribute, so avoided poluting with more noise.

I am still a bear and have avoided further punishments by the sell down. Still very much a trader's market with enough opportunities for the bulls as well as bears to scalp some pocket money. Not for me though.

On predicting 2009 direction, I heard a TA analysis on CNBC this afternoon, based on e-wave which says the S&P is on a 5-wave down leg which is the C of the ABC correction from Mar 2000. C started from Oct 2007. There is a bright side, the bottom is near. IMO, this is expected around May/Jun which should see a more sustained rally. So much for prediction :oops:

Btw, USA has become a socialist country. President Obama is another do-gooder and his Administration has initiated another string of bailouts. He really does not have much choice. Much of the mess were made for him to clean up. If his efforts fail, the D word shall follow soon.


I remember OE2008's post abt the US having become a socialist country.
Feb's uproar over a 'racist' chimp cartoon of Obama; the recent Prof Gates v Cambridge police and now the acriminous debates over health care reforms are dividing the US bitterly along social, racial and party lines.
These do not signal a readiness to spur or forge forward.

A socialist agenda will cause severe wage stagnation but serious asset inflation on the other hand cuz the Fed has pumped in so much money. Juz some stray thoughts.
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