US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 06 (Oct 16 - Jul 22)

[behappyalways]

2019.08.18【文茜世界財經週報】避險情緒濃　推升債券價格　殖利率重挫
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88SRJ7o ... xu&index=7

[winston]

Goldman Sachs is getting nervous about stocks. In a note to clients, equity strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann outlined the firm’s fears that there may be significant risk to the downside for the market.

Federal and state tax receipts are really slowing down just like they did just prior to the last two recessions…

Online job postings on LinkedIn have now been falling precipitously since February after 73 months in a row of growth…

The following are 11 quotes from Trump’s speech to Congress that show that the U.S. economy is in a state of collapse…
1. “Ninety-four million Americans are out of the labor force”
2. “Over 43 million people are now living in poverty”
3. “Over 43 million Americans are on food stamps”
4. “More than one in five people in their prime working years are not working”
5. We have the worst financial recovery in 65 years”
6. “In the last eight years, the past administration has put on more new debt than nearly all of the other Presidents combined”
7. “We’ve lost more than one-fourth of our manufacturing jobs since NAFTA was approved”
8. “We’ve lost 60,000 factories since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001″
9. “Our trade deficit in goods with the world last year was nearly 800 billion dollars”
10. “Obamacare premiums nationwide have increased by double and triple digits. As an example, Arizona went up 116 percent last year alone.”
11. “We’ve spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas, while our infrastructure at home has so badly crumbled”

Source: Investment Watch

[winston]

Economists predict high likelihood of 2020 year end recession in US

Consumer spending, which accounted for almost all U.S. economic growth from July through September, is expected to grow a healthy 2.6 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2020.

The business economists in the US expect economic growth to decelerate this year and next but for the economy to avoid stumbling into recession, extending a record-breaking expansion already in its 11th year.

The latest survey by 53 forecasters with the National Association for Business Economics shows that they expect economic growth to slow from 2.9 percent last year to 2.3 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020. The forecasts are unchanged from the association’s previous survey in October.

The economists put the odds of a recession starting at 5 percent this year, 21 percent in the first half of 2020 and 43 percent by the end of next year.

However, they peg the odds of a recession by mid-2021 at 66 percent.

The American economy is likely to remain resilient this year and next, they say, despite risks arising from President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and skirmishes with other U.S. trading partners:

Half the respondents call trade tensions the No. 1 downside economic risk through the end of next year.

The Federal Reserve has lowered the short-term interest rate it controls three times this year. The cuts are meant in part to offset economic damage from Trump’s trade wars, which have raised uncertainty for businesses and contributed to a drop in business investment in the April-June and July-September quarters.

The vast majority of business economists — 94 percent — do not expect the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. But they are divided over what the central bank will do next year.

The economists expect American consumers to continue driving the economy. Consumer spending, which accounted for almost all U.S. economic growth from July through September, is expected to grow a healthy 2.6 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2020.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking- ... 1210&sid=2

[winston]

How Long Will It Take For The US To Collapse?

by Tyler Durden

The collapse of an empire is a process, not an event.

In almost every case of economic crisis or geopolitical disaster, the public is conditioned to believe they are in the midst of a financial “boom” or era of “peace”. They are encouraged to ignore fundamental warning signs in favor of foolish faith in the system. Those people that try to break the apathy and expose the truth are called “chicken little” and “doom monger”.

We can gain some sense of timing from the public admissions of globalist organizations like the IMF and the UN. Each has announced the year 2030 as a target date for the finalization of globalization, a cashless society and sustainability goals. This means that the elites have around ten years to create a crisis and then “solve” that crisis with globalism.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... newsletter

[winston]

Warning: We’re Headed into a Bad Recession

by Shah Gilani

Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21, 2020, were a record 3.28 million.

That’s 11.6 times the week before, when 281,000 claims were filed, and 4.72 times the previous record of 695,000 Americans seeking benefits way back in the week ending Oct. 2, 1982.

The country gets a look at first-quarter GDP on April 29.

Second-quarter GDP’s first estimate comes out on July 30, 2020.

Morgan Stanley says Q1 GDP will be -2.4% (- means negative, as in contraction) and Q2 will be -30.1%.

Goldman Sachs says Q1 GDP will be -6% and Q2 will be -24%.

JPMorgan Chase says Q1 will come in at -4% and Q2 will be -14%.

Source: Money Morning

https://dailytradealert.com/2020/03/27/ ... recession/

[winston]

Coronavirus crisis will leave 3 lasting scars, even if the economy recovers in fourth quarter, Pimco warns

By Shawn Langlois

1. Globalization may be dialed back
2. Increase in private and public debt; interest rates kept low to finance deeper deficits
3. Less appetite for risk-on assets

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c ... &yptr=yaho

[winston]

More price declines forecast in US

Economists expect more price declines ahead with large parts of the economy shut down and millions out of work.

They believe the country has already entered a steep recession and the falling prices raise the prospect of disinflation.

When producers lack pricing power, it can create a circular pattern in which consumers put purchases on hold, driving prices down further.

Consumer activity accounts for 70 percent of all U.S. economic activity and a sustained chill in spending can damage the overall economy.

Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, said the concerns about disinflation was one of the reasons the Federal Reserve has moved so forcefully to combat the current crisis.

Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, said, “There’s deflation in the air and more downward pressure on prices is imminent with economic demand plummeting this quarter.”

Economists are already predicting that the economy could fall by as much as 30 percent at an annual rate this quarter.

The hope is that the downturn will be short as economic activity rebounds sharply once the virus is contained.

Source: AP

[winston]

Kashkari Says U.S. May Face 18 Months of Rolling Shutdowns

by Matthew Boesler

“We could have these waves of flareups, controls, flareups and controls until we actually get a therapy or a vaccine.

I think we should all be focusing on an 18-month strategy for our health care system and our economy.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday that a partial reopening of the economy, could possibly begin in May, but cautioned that the outbreak could flare up again in the fall.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 04219.html

[winston]

Investors should prepare for a coronavirus-induced ‘vicious spiral’, more than twice as bad as the financial crisis, says J.P. Morgan

By Chris Matthews

The current shock originated in the consumer sector, which accounts for 70% of GDP

There is a significant chance the global economy experiences “a vicious spiral, which is typical of recessions, between weak final demand, weaker labor markets, falling profits, weak credits markets and low oil prices.”

The current recession has been triggered by a shock to the consumer — which makes up 70% of GDP in Western economies — as workers around the globe are prevented from earning a living by the closures of nonessential business.

The bank’s house view is that the unemployment rate will remain elevated at 8.5% during the second of the year, while the peak-to-trough decline in real U.S. GDP will be 10%, versus the 4% decline during the financial crisis. “And this is all assuming that the virus is history by June, which might prove significantly optimistic”.

“While consensus view still appears to be a quick recovery, recessions tend to linger”.

“It took equities on average 18 months to record the final low in the past”.

So far, S&P 500 earnings per share estimates have only come down 3%, versus the 20% to 40% typical of previous recessions.

Once earnings estimates fall to necessary levels, it is possible that equity markets will finally begin to “over-discount” a recession. This would be indicated by the S&P 500 trading at 10 times forward earnings — a low seen in previous downturns—versus the roughly 14 times as of Friday’s close.

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inves ... yptr=yahoo

[behappyalways]

2020.04.12【文茜世界財經周報】近1700萬人失業　柏南克：美經濟難見V型反轉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJB3kQo ... xu&index=4