Europe - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[winston]

From kennynah with thanks:-

UK Housing Market Worst Hit in 30yrs
Tue 13 May, 2008 5:35 pm

(RTTNews) - UK's housing market is weakening at a faster pace as the number of chartered surveyors reporting house price declines hit a record high in April.

According to a report released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors on Tuesday, the balance of surveyors, reporting a fall rather than rise in house prices, increased to 95.1% from March's revised reading of 79.4%. Economists had expected a reading of 80%. The April reading was the worst since the survey started in 1978.
Completed sales for the quarter to April fell for the 12th consecutive month to 18.3 per surveyor, the data showed, down from 22.2 in March. On an annual basis, they were down by 31.7%. The number of properties on sale also dropped slightly in April and the average ratio of completed sales to unsold stock fell to 21.1% from 24.6% in March.

(truncated)..


Uk March Annual House Price Inflation Eases - Dclg
5/13/2008 5:55 AM ET

(RTTNews) - UK house prices grew 5.2% in March from the previous year, the latest house price index statistics produced by Communities and Local Government showed Tuesday. Annual house price inflation eased from 6.3% registered in February. In London, annual house price growth stood at 7.6%, much slower than the February's 9.2% increase.

The mix-adjusted average house price in the UK stood at GBP217,344 in March, up from GBP217,089 in February.

During the quarter ending March 2008, house prices slid 0.1% compared with a decline of 1% in the December quarter

[winston]

May 11, 2008
UK Residential Properties:-

Home repossession orders soar in UK
Repossession orders rise by 17% in Britain in first quarter, govt. figures show

Some 27,530 mortgage possession orders were made during the period

LONDON, England (AP) -- The government says mortgage repossession orders in England and Wales were up 17 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2007.

Some 27,530 mortgage possession orders were made during the period, though 47 percent were suspended, the Ministry of Justice reports Friday.

The number of mortgage possession claims rose 16 percent to 38,688, the report says.

Both figures are the highest since 1993.

The number of claims was up 7 percent compared to the fourth quarter, and the number of orders was up 9 percent compared to the previous quarter.

Howard Archer is chief European economist at Global Insight. He says the report underlines the limited impact of a series of cuts in the base interest rate this year.

[kennynah]

23 May 2008 08:45 GMT
UK Q1 GDP growth unrevised at quarterly 0.4 percent, annual 2.5 percent
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The UK economy grew below its trend rate in the first three months of the year, though household spending was firm, official figures confirmed.

The Office for National Statistics' second estimate for GDP growth in the first quarter showed the economy growing 0.4 percent compared with the fourth quarter.

That was unrevised from the first estimate, released last month, and represents the smallest growth since the first three months of 2005.

In annual terms, GDP rose 2.5 percent, again unrevised. That is down on the fourth quarter's 2.8 percent increase and is the smallest rise since the last three months of 2005.

The figures confirm that the UK economy's first-quarter performance was below its long-run trend rate of growth, thought to be between 0.6-0.7 percent in quarterly terms.

Analysts had correctly not expected any revision to the first quarter figures.

Today's release also includes details on expenditure and output.

Household expenditure was firm, rising 1.3 percent in quarterly terms, up from the fourth quarter's 0.1 percent increase due to buoyant retail sales during the period -- partly on the back of a roll-over in the Euromillions lottery.

The first quarter household spending growth figure is the highest since the fourth quarter of 2006, when it was also 1.3 percent.

Household spending in annual terms was up 3.0 percent, higher than the previous quarter's 2.4 percent.

Government spending grew 1.0 percent in the first quarter from the fourth, and 1.7 percent year-on-year.

Gross fixed capital formation fell 1.6 percent on the quarter, following the fourth quarter's 1.8 percent rise. It remained 1.1 percent higher in annual terms, sharply down from the fourth quarter's 4.1 percent gain and the slowest growth since the second quarter of 2005.

Inventories rose by 1 billion pounds in the first quarter, down from a 2.9 billion pound increase in the previous quarter.

On the trade side, the deficit in net exports narrowed slightly to 11 billion pounds from 11.6 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports of goods and services were unchanged, while imports fell 0.6 percent.

On the output side of the accounts, the services sector, which accounts for the bulk of the economy, showed continued weakness.

Growth in services was revised down to show quarterly growth of 0.5 percent from 0.6 percent previously.

The latest figure is the weakest since the first quarter of 2005 and compares with the fourth quarter's 0.7 percent growth.

In annual terms services output rose 2.9 percent, down on the 3.4 percent increase in the previous three months.

The service sector makes up 74 percent of GDP.

Within that, the business services and financial sector, which makes up 28 percent of the economy, grew 0.4 percent in quarterly terms and 3.8 percent year on year.

Meanwhile, industrial output was also revised lower. It fell 0.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with the previous estimate of a 0.1 percent fall and reversing the previous quarter's 0.2 percent gain.

Year on year, industrial output was up 0.6 percent, down a touch from 0.7 percent growth in the fourth quarter.

Manufacturing, which makes up the bulk of industrial output, saw growth revised down to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent in quarterly terms. Output was unchanged in the previous quarter.

In annual terms manufacturing production rose 1.0 percent, up from the previous quarter's 0.2 percent growth.

Rounding up the figures, construction output was up 0.5 percent in quarterly terms and 2.9 percent year-on-year. Both figures were unrevised.

Agricultural output rose 0.7 percent on the quarter, revised up from 0.6 percent, and was 2.4 percent higher than a year before.

The ONS also gave an indication of price growth in the economy. Its implied GDP deflator for the first quarter rose by 2.7 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. That was down from the fourth quarter's 3.0 percent annual gain.

[kennynah]

23 May 2008 11:04 GMT


Italy adjusted preliminary Q1 GDP up 0.4 percent vs Q4 UPDATE
(Updates with economist's comments)

ROME (Thomson Financial) - Italy's adjusted GDP rose 0.4 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2007, and rose 0.2 percent year-on-year, according to preliminary data released by the statistics office ISTAT.

Economists polled by Thomson Financial News were expecting the GDP to have growth by 0.2 percent in the first quarter after a contraction of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate was expected to rise by 0.4 percent year-on-year in the first three months after increasing 0.1 percent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2007.

In a note, Chiara Corsa, economist at the UniCredit group, that the 0.2 percent year-on-year rise in the first quarter is lower than its estimate of a 0.5 percent rise, increasing the risk that the bank will have to revise down its forecast for the whole of 2008 to about flat growth from a current expectation of a 0.4 percent increase.

The economist noted that ISTAT significantly changed its methodology and that its first-quarter estimate was based on old data.

The bank expects GDP growth to weaken again in the second quarter "either coming to a complete halt or slipping slightly into negative territory: the deterioration of business surveys has been abrupt over the last few months and calendar effects should turn unfavourable again in Q2."

It added that it expects virtually flat growth to persist in the second half of the year.

[kennynah]

maybe now, the french wont be so flashy this summer...
********************

23may08 840pm +8gmt
(RTTNews) - French consumer spending unexpectedly declined for the second month in a row due to a fall in purchases of cars and clothes.

A report from the statistical office INSEE said Friday that French consumer spending on manufactured goods, a major growth driver, dropped 0.8% in April from the prior month. This follows a 1% decrease in March, an improvement from the 1.7% decline estimated earlier. Economists were looking for monthly growth of 0.5%.

On a year-over-year basis, consumer spending rose 0.4%, much less than the 2% growth expected by economists'. In March, the year-on-year increase was 1.2%.

Among the components, the biggest decline was recorded in textile-leather goods, down 3% month-on-month after a 2.9% slide in March. Expenditure on durables slid by 0.6% in April, driven by a decline in car purchases. Car purchases slumped 2.7%, worse than the 1.1% fall in the previous month. Meanwhile, spending on household durables increased 1.6%.

In a note, BNP Paribas economist Caroline Newhouse-Cohen said, considering the revision of the previous month data, consumer spending increased 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, compared to a first estimate of 0.6%. Thus, spending growth rose slightly from 0.2% in the final quarter of 2007.

Further, the BNP Paribas economist noted that the one-off unlocking of vested profit-sharing schemes and the fiscal package will somewhat dampen the negative impact of deteriorating consumption drivers in the second quarter. However, this is unlikely to be enough to keep consumption afloat this year, the economist added.

Separately, the latest survey from the NTC Economics and CDAF showed that the French services purchasing managers' index slid to 50.7 from 52.8 in April. Economists were looking for a reading of 52.9. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.

Last week, official data showed that the French economy grew faster than expected. The gross domestic product increased a seasonally and trading-day adjusted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter basis in the first three months of 2008, doubling from 0.3% in the final quarter of 2007. First quarter growth in the second largest Eurozone economy was driven by robust investment and exports growth. Household expenditure eased to 0.1% from 0.6%, adding just 0.1 point to growth.

[kennynah]

23 May 2008 18:18 GMT


IMF Sees UK Economy Growing 1.75% In '08, '09
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The U.K. government received a qualified thumbs-up for its fiscal policy and economic predictions from the International Monetary Fund on Friday.

In the annual Article IV review of the U.K. economy, the IMF predicted decent growth of around 1.75% for this year and next.

That's within the government's 1.75%-2.25% growth estimate for this year but below the 2.25%-2.75% forecast for 2009. However, the forecast is better than many analysts are predicting and is above the 1.6% IMF forecast for U.K. growth in last month's World Economic Outlook.

The IMF forecast, however, that annualized U.K. growth would slow to 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2008. And it said the weakness in the housing market means that "downside risks" to U.K. growth are "high."

On Friday, the U.K.'s Office for National Statistics released gross domestic product data, confirming that the economy slowed modestly in the first quarter. The ONS reported the economy grew 0.4% in the first three months of the year, with growth up 2.5% from the year-earlier period.

The economy expanded 3.0% in 2007.

The IMF also held back from criticizing U.K. fiscal policy, despite a chorus of economists worrying that Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government had surrendered its fiscal discipline.

The IMF said the 2008 "budget judgment was appropriate, as was its commitment to fiscal tightening over the next years."

The organization advised that the government's commitment to tighten fiscal policy by 0.5 percentage point of GDP a year in 2009 and 2010 "should not waver," barring a major downturn.

However, the report did seem to echo some of the concerns about increased government borrowing, with the IMF warning that "margin for error under the fiscal rules has been all but eliminated."

On the monetary-policy side, the IMF said they see "no scope for further near-term monetary easing absent assurances of continued wage moderation, fiscal policy that is tighter than planned, or signs that house price and credit developments are significantly curbing domestic demand."

The IMF said policymakers "should stand ready to tighten at the earliest clear signs of emergent nominal wage inflation."

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has cut interest rates three times since December, but held rates steady at 5.00% this month. With consumer inflation surging, most economists now believe there's little chance of further rate cuts soon.

The IMF said it would be a "serious mistake" to alter the inflation target regime, a view also expressed by BOE Governor Mervyn King and the prime minister.

The IMF also praised the efforts taken by authorities to improve financial markets.

It said the BOE's special lending facility that allows banks to swap asset-backed securities for U.K. Treasury bills "has already contributed to an easing in money market pressures."

[kennynah]

Germany Confirms Q1 Preliminary Growth Rates
5/27/2008 2:33 AM ET

(RTTNews) - Germany's economic growth surged in the first three months of 2008.

Tuesday, the latest release from the Federal Statistical Office, or Destatis showed that the German economy expanded at a pace of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter after seasonal and calendar adjustments. Thus, the preliminary growth estimate, released on May 15, was left unrevised. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the economy had grown 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.

The Destatis said economic growth in the first quarter of 2008 was supported primarily by gross fixed capital formation, which continued on a high level.

The calendar adjusted annual growth rate was 2.6% in the first quarter, up from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2007. This was also unrevised from the initial estimate. The price adjusted annual growth for the first quarter was 1.8%, up from 1.6% in the previous three months.

[kennynah]

27may08 330pm +8gmt

most details are not officially out yet...but at least 3 european consumer/manufacturing confidence indicators from Dutch, Germany and Swedish are all expected to FALL....

so, even with a good Germany's 1st GDP, Eur/Usd is under pressure...

[kennynah]

27 May 2008 07:36 GMT

French May business climate, production outlook indicators miss consensus UPDATE
(updates with further components)

PARIS (Thomson Financial) - A composite indicator of French business confidence fell to 102 in May from 106 in April, according to a monthly survey of industrialists carried out by the statistics office Insee, a sharper fall than anticipated by economists.

The indicator reflects the level of positive business leader opinion on the overall output outlook, their own output outlook, past production, inventories and order books.

General output expectations fell sharply to -15 from -9 in April.

The indicator represents the balance in percentage points between those expecting an overall rise in output and those predicting a decline.

Economists had expected the composite indicator to come in at 104 and the general production outlook indicator to improve to -8.

The indicator on industrialists' expectations on their own output stood at +6 down from +13 the previous month.

The indicator on past production was +7 compared with +11 a month earlier.

Own price expectations were +13 compared with +12 last month.

Insee said the indicator on inventory levels for May was +14, down from +16.

Overall order levels were -11 compared with -4 the month before, while the indicator on foreign order levels was -7 versus +3 the month before.

All figures relate to all branches of industry except the food sector.

27 May 2008 07:42 GMT
Swedish May consumer confidence indicator minus 1.1 vs plus 0.8 in April
STOCKHOLM (Thomson Financial) - The Swedish consumer confidence indicator fell in May to minus 1.1 from plus 0.8 in April said the National Institute of Economic Research (Konjunkturinstitutet).

Market expectations were for a May reading of minus 0.2, according to a survey of economists by SME Direkt.

"Households' view on the economic situation is continuing to become ever bleaker. This is the fourth month in a row that CCI indicates weaker sentiment than normal among Swedish households," said the Institute.

Relative to April, both the Macro index and the Micro index fell. These indices respectively measure household expectations on the Swedish economy and personal finances.

The Macro Index worsened to minus 21.1 from minus 15.7, while the Micro Index fell to 5.6 from 7.0.

27 May 2008 07:55 GMT
Swedish April PPI up 0.4 pct from March, up 2.9 pct year-on-year
STOCKHOLM (Thomson Financial) - The producer prices index rose 0.4 percent in April from March and increased 2.9 percent from a year earlier, the Central Statistical Bureau said.

Import prices rose 0.5 percent in April from March, and were up 4.5 percent year-on-year, mainly due to higher prices for basic iron, steel and ferroalloys, and for equipment, excluding computers.

Export prices rose 0.3 percent in April from March and were up 1.0 percent from a year earlier.

27 May 2008 08:01 GMT
Dutch May business confidence rises to plus 3.7 from plus 3.0 in April
AMSTERDAM (Thomson Financial) - The Dutch business confidence indicator rose to plus 3.7 in May compared with plus 3.0 in April, the Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS) said on Tuesday.

The CBS said the slight improvement in sentiment follows a decline in confidence in the three previous months.

Business sentiment across the country is positive, it added, but is less exuberant than at the start of the year.


27 May 2008 07:59 GMT
Dutch May consumer confidence falls to minus 17 from minus 12 in April
AMSTERDAM (Thomson Financial) - The Dutch consumer confidence indicator in May fell to minus 17 compared with minus 12 in April, the Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS) said on Tuesday.

Consumer confidence has been falling since September last year, the CBS said, adding that the decline in confidence in May was again due to reduced confidence in the economic climate.

[kennynah]

European government bonds fall as inflation fears prevail
Tue, May 27 2008, 10:24 GMT

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - European government bonds fell in quiet trade, with a batch of soft confidence data doing little to support fixed-income issues as inflation concerns abound.


The GfK consumer confidence indicator for Germany fell to 4.9 points in June compared with 5.6 points in May and against analysts' forecasts for an improvement to 5.8. In France, the Insee business confidence dropped to 102 in May from 106 in April, beyond estimates for a more modest fall to 104.


however bonds remained suppressed, with U.S. Treasuries also falling.


"Support (for European fixed income issues) remains few and far between as global bonds continue to struggle against inflation and the threat posed by energy and commodity costs," said Michael Cartine at IFR Markets.


In the United Kingdom, gilts were fractionally higher on the day after some soft mortgage data from the British Bankers' Association. Although mortgage approvals edged up in April from May, the strength came from remortgaging activity rather than new purchases and overall volumes are way down on a year ago.


"Despite April's modest rise in mortgage approvals, the BBA data are still very weak and indicate that house buying remains under severe pressure," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight.


Later on, markets may take direction from U.S. consumer confidence and new home sales data.


The Conference Board's survey of consumer confidence is expected to have dipped in May to 60.0 from 62.3 in the previous month, while new home sales are set to have dipped to an annualised 522,000 unit rate in April following a 526,000 annual unit rate in March.


Federal Reserve policymaker Janet Yellen is also due to speak on the economy and monetary policy, towards the end of the European session.