US - Econ. Slowdown - How deep & long ? 06 (Oct 16 - Jul 22)

[winston]

Are We Setting Up For a Major Recession and a Major Crash?

By Michael Snyder

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2016/11 ... jor-crash/

[winston]

Since 2014, the US has added 571,000 waiters & bartenders and lost 34,000 manufacturing workers

Source: Daily Crux

http://thecrux.com/since-2014-the-u-s-h ... g-workers/

[winston]

Recession 2017? These Things Never Happen Unless A New Recession Is Beginning

By Michael Snyder

Tax receipts indicate the US is in recession.
Gross private domestic investment indicates were are in a recession.
Retailers are showing that the US consumer is tapped out (see AMZN’s recent miss).
UPS, another economic bellweather, dramatically lowered 2017 forecasts.

“Although modest over the past couple of quarters, it is still worth noting that this is now the sixth quarter in succession that standards have tightened for large and medium sized firms,” Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid wrote in a research note to clients.

“This usually only happens in recessions.”

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2017/02 ... beginning/

[winston]

The Great Recession is still with us, top forecaster says

By Rex Nutting

Cost in lost output so far could be more than $13 trillion, estimates John Silvia of Wells Fargo

We are much poorer than we would be if the recession hadn’t happened. How much poorer?

By one estimate, U.S. real gross domestic product has been nearly 10% lower, on average, for each of the past nine years, Silvia says, which means that (by my calculations) we’ve lost about $13.6 trillion in output.

Real disposable incomes are about $11 trillion lower over those nine years, amounting to a loss of more than $35,000 per person. That’s the equivalent of everyone in America getting laid off for 11 months.

Source: Market Watch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-gr ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

How Will America Look When Stocks, Home Prices And Even Used Cars All Crash By At Least 50 Percent?

By Michael Snyder

John P. Hussman stated that his team is projecting that by the end of this current market cycle “roughly half of U.S. equity market capitalization – $17 trillion in paper wealth – will simply vanish”.

This week, Morgan Stanley (one of the too big to fail banks) released a report that said that used car prices “could crash by up to 50%” over the next several years…

Many believe that some cities on the west coast will be quite fortunate if home values only go down by 50 percent during the coming crash.

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2017/04 ... 0-percent/

[winston]

The last time this happened, it was in 2008

Source: Daily Crux

http://thecrux.com/the-last-time-this-h ... s-in-2008/

[winston]

11 Facts That Prove That The U.S. Economy In 2017 Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2017/04 ... s-in-2016/

[winston]

Something’s Deeply Wrong in the American Economy

By Brad Briggs

Since 2010, when the government took over student lending, direct government lending to students has gone from approximately $200 billion to more than $900 billion — creating dramatically increased student defaults and a population that is rightfully angry about how much money they owe, particularly since it reduces their ability to get other credit.

Our nation’s healthcare costs are essentially twice as much per person vs. most other developed nations.

Felony convictions for even minor offenses have led, in part, to 20 million American citizens having a criminal record — and this means they often have a hard time getting a job.

– Labor force participation is too low. Labor force participation in the United States has gone from 66% to 63% between 2008 and today. Some of the reasons for this decline are understandable and aren’t too worrisome — for example, an aging population.

But if you examine the data more closely and focus just on labor force participation for one key segment; i.e., men ages 25-54, you’ll see that we have a serious problem… the participation rate for that cohort has gone from 96%in 1968 to a little over 88% today. This is way below labor force participation in almost every other developed nation.

Source: Street Authority

http://dailytradealert.com/2017/05/12/s ... economy-2/

[winston]

It's a slowdown despite the backdrop of ultra-low rates

It's beginning to look like those who needed a new car have bought one.

Those who wanted a house have bought one. Those who wanted to refinance, have refinanced.

Companies that have wanted to borrow or restructure debt have done it.

It's like opening up an all-you-can eat chocolate bar for kids. At some point, they've had their fill.

What it's probably telling us is that the monetary policy-driven recovery is over.

And to get any real meaningful growth and sustained demand, it will have to come from big, bold fiscal stimulus and structural reform.

Source: Forbes

[winston]

Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck

Nearly 10 percent of those making $100,000 or more say they can't make ends meet.
Overall, most workers said they are in debt and many believe they always will be.

by Jessica Dickler

No matter how much you earn, getting by is still a struggle for most people these days.

Seventy-eight percent of full-time workers said they live paycheck to paycheck, up from 75 percent last year, according to a recent report from CareerBuilder.

Overall, 71 percent of all U.S. workers said they're now in debt, up from 68 percent a year ago, CareerBuilder said.

While 46 percent said their debt is manageable, 56 percent said they were in over their heads.
About 56 percent also save $100 or less each month, according to CareerBuilder. The job-hunting site polled over 2,000 hiring and human resource managers and more than 3,000 full-time employees between May and June.

Most financial experts recommend stashing at least a six-month cushion in an emergency fund to cover anything from a dental bill to a car repair — and more if you are the sole breadwinner in your family or in business for yourself.

While household income has grown over the past decade, it has failed to keep up with the increased cost-of-living over the same period.

Even those making over six figures said they struggle to make ends meet, the report said.

Nearly 1 in 10 of those making $100,000 or more said they usually or always live paycheck to paycheck, and 59 percent of those in that salary range said they were in the red.

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/most-am ... check.html