Thailand 01 (May 08 - Apr 10)

[winston]

so....is the airticket to bangkok $1 now?? if so, i sure go... just make sure, i dont wear red...not even red underwear

Or Yellow

[iam802]

so....is the airticket to bangkok $1 now?? if so, i sure go... just make sure, i dont wear red...not even red underwear

Or Yellow

Wear a T-shirt with the King's picture on it.

[millionairemind]

so....is the airticket to bangkok $1 now?? if so, i sure go... just make sure, i dont wear red...not even red underwear

How about wearing red with the KING's picture on it??

[kennynah]

i go topless...being so hot and humid.... and safe....

[mojo_]

insights from the beeb...

Thai government feels fallout from deadly clashes

By Vaudine England
BBC News, Bangkok

A month ago, Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva might have felt relatively secure, despite the opposition's anger at his government.

A court had just confiscated two-thirds of the private assets of the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra.

Local newspapers were firmly on the government's side, predicting some days of angry ranting by an uneducated rabble from the countryside which would soon peter out.

But then the anti-government protesters, the red-shirts, began their protests in the old heart of Bangkok, to press for new elections, and Mr Abhisit has spent the following weeks under military protection, unable to go home or to his office.

He had to beg generals to implement emergency laws intended to clear the demonstrations once and for all.

And when the troops finally did decide to move against the red-shirts on 10 April, it was a botched operation, leading to the deaths of some 20 people, both civilians and soldiers.

The red-shirts are still in control of some streets in the capital. Huge trucks are blocking public access to the central shopping district and the original base camp at Phan Fah bridge is gathering new recruits during the day.

The high number of dead damages both sides, but analysts are wondering where the government can go from here.

"Mr Abhisit is under a lot of pressure," said Dr Amorn Wanichwiwatana, who teaches Thai politics at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

"He is in a difficult situation - it is hard to see how he could step down splendidly," Dr Amorn said.

It is also raises the prospect of a different kind of military action, he said.

"We have to allow for the possibility of a coup, or a silent coup," said Dr Amorn, adding that the military was not necessarily united behind the Abhisit government.

'Petrified'

Dr Thitinan Pongsudihrak, also from Chulalongkorn University, shares the view that the prime minister's days in office could well be numbered.

"Abhisit's departure is imminent," said Dr Thitinan, who is currently teaching at Stanford University in the US.

"If he and his backers decide to go in for more crackdown, it could boomerang beyond imagination by galvanising the reds' upheaval into an inchoate people's revolution.

"The army's casualties and loss of armoury are shocking... Establishment forces are now shocked, petrified and paranoid. This is why a military assertiveness, perhaps revolving around the more hawkish [deputy armed forces commander] Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, could be on the cards in the short run," he suggested.

The last time there was this much bloodshed on the streets was in 1992, when pro-democracy protesters fought against the appointment of an unelected general, Suchinda Kraprayoon, as prime minister, a conflict only ended when King Bhumibol Adulyadej intervened.

A year ago, red-shirt protesters also tried to get rid of the Abhisit government, only to back off after a few days and two deaths.

This time, the reds have exercised more discipline and organisation.

"Their resolve and rage, mobilisation and organisation, over the past year have been underestimated by the Bangkok-based establishment fronted by Mr Abhisit," said Dr Thitinan.

"Their newfound traction has staying power. When reds' numbers dwindle, reinforcements of both the rural disenchanted and the urban underclass show up. Time was on Abhisit's side before the deadly clash, but now time is on the reds' side."

This movement represents the rising political consciousness of a generation, he says.

Mr Abhisit insists he is committed to returning the situation to normal as soon as possible.

In that he may be frustrated however as many observers fear this situation will get worse before it gets better.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/a ... 613943.stm

Published: 2010/04/11 10:15:17 GMT

[kennynah]

this present upheaval in bangkok presents a golden opportunity for our singaporean political science undergraduates to study and learn....

[winston]

Complacency and pricing things for perfection

Dropped another 3.5% today. So maybe a total of 6% drop from the range high.

Unfortunately, I dont have a vehicle to short the Hospitality stocks there eg. Thai Airways, Thai Airport, Minor etc.

[winston]

Thai Stocks, Baht Decline After Protest Clash Kills Up to 21 By Anuchit Nguyen and Yumi Teso

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Thai stocks and the baht fell, while bond risk climbed after soldiers and protesters died in unrest that prompted the biggest selloff of the nation’s equities in more than four months.

The benchmark SET Index lost 3.6 percent to close at 760.9, the biggest drop since Oct. 15. The baht weakened 0.3 percent to 32.33 against the dollar, according to Bloomberg data.

“Markets may have underestimated the resolve and staying power” of anti-government protesters, said Stuart Winchester, Hong Kong-based senior portfolio manager at RCM Asia Pacific Ltd., which oversees $142 billion worldwide. He oversees the Allianz RCM Thailand Fund, which beat 93 percent of its peers last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Swaps

The cost of credit-default swaps protecting against a Thai sovereign default rose 4 basis points to 108.5 basis points, according to Deutsche Bank AG. That’s the highest since March 22, prices from CMA DataVision show. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

“Some overseas investors will be so jittery that they may rush to reduce their investments,” said Vana Bulbon, chief executive officer of UOB Asset Management (Thailand) Co., which oversees the equivalent of $1.6 billion of investments. “No one expected that many deaths and this situation further worsens the political crisis.”

Overseas investors sold a net 2.1 billion baht ($65 million) of Thai shares today, the most since Nov. 23, according to the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s data. They withdrew a net 5.2 billion baht over the past three days, halting 31 consecutive days of net purchases, the longest stretch since February 2005.

The SET Index last week had its first weekly drop in nine weeks. Thai markets will be closed for a three-day holiday starting tomorrow.

Foreign investors are expected to sell more Thai stocks after the clash, said Patareeya Benjapolchai, the president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Investors had earlier shrugged off concerns of the protest, driving the SET stocks index 7.7 percent higher in the month prior to today’s drop. The gain was the most in Asia as demonstrations remained peaceful.

“The situation looks quite bad now and investors will sell Thai assets in the short term,” said Tohru Nishihama, economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. in Tokyo. “However, the risk of prolonged political unrest has already been priced in, so the money will eventually go back to Thailand as the economy still looks good.”

Thai stocks are trading at 11.4 times estimated earnings, the lowest in Asia after Pakistan and South Korea’s equities, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

The country’s credit rating fundamentals are “darkening” amid escalating political protests, Moody’s Investors Service said on April 9. The negative outlook on the country’s debt rating remains “appropriate,” Thomas Byrne, a senior vice president at Moody’s, said in an interview.

Moody’s is concerned that worsening unrest will impair the effectiveness of government policies aimed at helping the economy recover from the global recession, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... jjXYV0nD8I

[kennynah]

I just don't see how this unrest can deteriorate into an internal civil war... Buy when fear is present..
I'll go investigate USD/Baht trade

[winston]

... Buy when fear is present..I'll go investigate USD/Baht trade

Hmm.... I have been thinking of Equities only and forgot about the Baht. Thanks K !

However, I dont want to be too early. This can go on and on for another few months if not years ...