Japan 01 (May 08 - Dec 09)

[winston]

Japanese Nikkei 225 nosedives

The Index has been in a downtrend since August and is on course to record a fifth consecutive down-week by the close of today, with today alone down by more than 3% so far.

The weakness in Japanese stocks coincided with a surge in the price of credit default swaps (CDSs) on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) - under stress of sovereign solvency fears.

Also, core consumer prices were down 2.2% in October relative to a year earlier, as deflation remains firmly entrenched in the Japanese economy.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009 ... ahoo!+Mail

[kennynah]

BoJ announces fresh lending facilities !!!

one good news after another for the bulls....

[winston]

Is US$115b adequate ? I think the traders smell blood ..

Bank of Japan loans target deflation

Tokyo, Japan (CNN) -- The Bank of Japan will allocate 10 trillion yen ($115 billion) into short-term, low-interest loans to stem deflation and bring down the value of the yen, the bank announced on Tuesday.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/BUSINESS/12 ... index.html

[winston]

Does the Bank of Japan Have Enough Juice to Overcome Nagging Deflation?
By Jason Simpkins, Money Morning

Matters are further complicated by Japan’s overwhelming national debt, which is almost twice the level of its GDP.

That makes another government stimulus package extremely unlikely and puts more pressure on the central bank to hold the economy together.

For that reason, it’s likely that Japan is headed for another “prolonged period of deflation,” despite the central bank’s latest moves to ease monetary policy, James McCormack, head of Asia sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Inc., told The Wall Street Journal.

“When the economic backdrop is as weak as it is in Japan and deflation is as it has been in Japan, it’s very difficult to turn things around quickly,” he said. “Our expectation is that it will take a while.”

http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/12/02/japan-deflation/

[millionairemind]

Dec 9, 2009
Q3 GDP growth estimate cut

TOKYO - JAPAN'S economy in the third quarter grew sharply less than initial estimates as cautious companies decided to save, not spend.

Real gross domestic product expanded at an annual pace of 1.3 per cent in the July-September period, the government said on Tuesday, much lower than its preliminary figure of 4.8 per cent provided last month.

The result corresponds to 0.3 per cent growth from the previous quarter instead of the 1.2 per cent reported initially.

The big downward revision stems largely from capital investment, which fell 2.8 per cent from the previous quarter after the government incorporated additional data. The Cabinet Office had estimated that companies increased spending by 1.6 per cent.

The marked change in GDP figures adds to recent signs that Japan's economic recovery may be losing steam. The world's second biggest economy faces intensifying deflation and a strong yen, on top of a still uncertain global outlook.

GDP, or the total value of the nation's goods and services, rose at a revised annual pace of 2.7 per cent in the April-June period after posting a record decline in the first quarter. -- AP

[Poles]

i just got back from Tokyo. Some on the street observation.
As usual it is pack like sardines in some place.But visually you see less ang mo tourist, maybe because of the strong JPY.
On a retail side, a typical mall at train station will have 7-8 storeys. With supermarket/food market(cooked food) at the basement and others on the upper levels. A very common sight(cause we are always at basement looking for food), only the basement is crowded. The upper levels of consumer good is quiet ......even on weekends.
The only crowded retail outlet in Tokyo irregardless of any part of Tokyo any time >>> UNIQLO
Any crowded budget store will be Don Quote(cannot remember the spelling)

On TV programs, they are showing the locals locations of the cheap buys.....

On transportation, I see more locals on bicycle(not usual japanese auntie bike)...racing bikes, mountain bikes.
Using it as their transportation tool.
More retailer are carrying a wider range of cycling products.
As well a lot more new variety for electric bicycle.
Bridgetsone/Panasonic has a wide range of electric bicycle....


p/s: i think it would be great if fellow forumers here can share local observation of places that they have recently viisited. This would be great 1st hand on the street information not available anywhere...

[kennynah]

no comment on women fashion? length of their skirts, which is an indicator of the economy, according to one book i read...

[millionairemind]

Dec 11, 2009
Japan's confidence worsens

TOKYO - JAPAN'S consumer confidence has worsened for the first time in 11 months due to worries about job security and sluggish wages, the government said Friday.

The Cabinet Office's consumer confidence index declined to 39.5 in November, down 1.0 point from the previous month.

A figure below 50 indicates that pessimistic consumers outnumber optimistic ones. The index had risen for nine straight months up to September, when it hit a near two-year high of 40.5 - a level that was matched in October.

Japan's economy returned to positive growth in this year's second quarter after a severe year-long recession.

But the government reported this week that the world's number-two economy grew at a much slower rate than previously thought in the third quarter, reigniting fears that the fledgling recovery could stall.

Japan's government announced Tuesday a fresh economic stimulus package of US$274 billion (S$380.8 billion), including US$80 billion in new spending, which analysts said should help to support consumer confidence. -- AFP

[kennynah]

they say they expect to expand economy by 1.4%.... but up to people to believe...

**********************************************
Japan Govt: Economy To Expand 1.4% In Fiscal 2010
12/25/2009 6:25 AM ET

(RTTNews) - Friday, the Japan's government said the economy would expand 1.4% in fiscal 2010 after contracting 2.6% in the current fiscal, which ends in March 2010. The economy would be growing for the first time in three years.

In its economic outlook, the Cabinet Office said overall consumer prices would fall 0.8% in fiscal 2010 following a 1.6% decline estimated for fiscal 2009. The government urged the Bank of Japan to take necessary measures to support the economy as mild deflation is expected to persist. It added that the government will work with the BoJ to address deflation.

Moreover, the government sees strong domestic demand in the coming months, boosted by the stimulus package. Private consumption is forecast to rise 1% next fiscal year after 0.6% growth this fiscal.

Unemployment rate would be at 5.3% next fiscal year, slightly down from a record 5.4% estimated for this year. Japan's economic recovery would be gradual, the cabinet office added.

by RTT Staff Writer

[winston]

The lost decade will be turning into the lost two decades very soon..

Do you remember those days where it was chic to learn Japanese, to buy Japanese electrical goods, to buy Japanese cars or to shop at the Japanese Departmental stores etc. ?

At that time, the land of the Imperial Palace was worth more than the entire California

Nowadays, the Japanese are loosening visa restrictions to encourage more Individual Chinese tourists ...