Japan 01 (May 08 - Dec 09)

Japan 01 (May 08 - Dec 09)

Postby winston » Thu May 08, 2008 5:24 pm

Is this the big one coming ?

6.8 earthquake shakes Tokyo

TOKYO, Japan (AP) -- A strong earthquake struck off the coast of Japan early Thursday, the national Meteorological Agency said, waking up people 100 miles away in Tokyo.

Two people suffered minor injuries from falling furniture, public television broadcaster NHK reported. An 18-year-old man was hit when his stereo speakers fell onto his bed, and a 25-year-old man was hit by objects rattled off shelves.

There were no other immediate reports of injuries or damage from the magnitude 6.8 earthquake, NHK said. No tsunami warning was issued.

The earthquake occurred at 1:45 a.m. offshore at a depth of about 25 miles, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The epicenter was about 100 miles northeast of Tokyo.

A second quake with a magnitude of 5.3 struck the same area about 30 minutes later, and more aftershocks could follow, Tamotsu Aketagawa, an official who monitors earthquakes for the country's Meteorological Agency, told The Associated Press.

"Since it was a very large-scale earthquake, we would expect to see some modest aftershocks," he said.

Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world because it sits atop four tectonic plates. Tokyo has not been hit by a major quake since 1923, when 140,000 people died in the Great Kanto Earthquake

Source: AP
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Re: Japan - Economic News

Postby winston » Fri May 16, 2008 5:16 pm

Japan's GDP Grows More-Than-Estimated 3.3% on Exports (Update4)

By Jason Clenfield

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew 3.3 percent last quarter, faster than economists estimated, as exports to Asia and emerging markets helped the nation weather the U.S. slowdown.

Gross domestic product in the three months ended March 31 was better than the 2.5 percent median estimate of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Fourth-quarter growth was revised to 2.6 percent from 3.5 percent, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo.

Today's figures came a day after Germany reported its economy expanded at the fastest pace in 12 years, resisting the U.S. slowdown. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average has surged 21 percent in the past two months as companies including Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. forecast record profit.

``The big slowdown isn't happening,'' said Jesper Koll, director of Tantallon Research Japan, a hedge fund. ``The world is resilient. Global demand is strong.''

The yen traded at 104.38 per dollar at 4:11 p.m. in Tokyo from 104.87 before the report. The currency has fallen 7 percent against the dollar since climbing to a 12-year high of 95.76 on March 17, easing the burden on exporters' earnings. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond rose 2 basis points to 1.695 percent.

From the fourth quarter, Japan expanded 0.8 percent, the fastest pace in a year. Figures yesterday showed Europe grew a more-than-anticipated 0.7 percent, led by the 1.5 percent expansion in Germany. The U.S. economy grew only 0.1 percent in the same period, and 0.6 percent on an annualized basis.

Middle East, Russia

Matsushita President Fumio Ohtsubo last month said the Beijing Olympics and demand for Panasonic televisions in the Middle East and Russia will help profit climb 10 percent to a record in the year ending March 31.

Other companies are less optimistic. Toyota Motor Corp., the nation's biggest automaker, expects falling U.S. sales, higher commodity prices and the stronger yen to erode earnings. Sony Corp. this week said profit at its electronics division will fall this year because of the currency's gains.

Companies plan to pare orders of machinery, a key indicator of capital spending, by 10.3 percent this quarter, a report showed yesterday.

Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga and Economy Minister Hiroko Ota said today that they're concerned about the outlook for business investment, which fell 0.9 percent last quarter.

``The negative effect of the U.S. slowdown is going to hit after a time lag,'' said Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities in Tokyo. ``Both households and the corporate sector could be in pretty bad shape, at least through summer.''

Consumers Pessimistic

Household confidence slumped to a five-year low in April, a separate report showed today, as inflation quickened to the fastest pace in a decade. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than half of the economy, grew 0.8 percent last quarter.

Prices of everyday goods rose at more than twice the pace of wages in March. Japanese workers are likely to see summer bonuses increase by the smallest amount since 2002, the Nikkei newspaper reported this week.

``Real income is declining'' and households may tighten their purse strings, said HSBC's Shiraishi. ``Inflation in prices of necessities has a negative impact on psychology.''

The risk of weaker growth prompted the Bank of Japan last month to shelve its policy of gradually raising interest rates. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board are expected to hold the key rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest in the industrialized world, at the end of their next meeting on May 20 and most economists say borrowing costs will stay unchanged this year.

Export Growth

Net exports -- the difference between exports and imports -- accounted for most of Japan's growth, contributing 0.5 percentage point to the quarterly increase. Domestic demand added 0.3 percentage point.

``Even if the U.S. goes into recession, demand from Europe and Asia should hold up reasonably well,'' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley last month dropped predictions the world's second-largest economy would slip into a recession, ending the nation's longest postwar expansion.

Residential investment rose 4.6 percent from the previous three months. Housing starts are recovering after plunging since June because of a permit logjam caused by government regulations designed to stop building fraud.

The higher cost of imports probably means that the real GDP growth rate overstates the strength of the economy. In nominal terms, which don't take into account price changes, Japan expanded 0.4 percent on the quarter, half the pace of real growth.

``Imported inflation is squeezing domestic profit margins and wages,'' said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers in Tokyo.

Goldman Sachs says annual earnings at Japanese companies will fall for the first time in seven years. That could stifle investment and hiring.

Today's numbers may have also exaggerated growth because some components don't adjust for the leap year. Yuji Shimanaka, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting in Tokyo, said the extra day in February accounted for about half of the increase in consumer spending.
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Re: Japan - General News

Postby winston » Fri May 16, 2008 5:32 pm

Japan's Consumer Confidence Falls to Five-Year Low (Update1)

By Toru Fujioka

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's consumer confidence fell to the lowest in five years in April as gains in prices of everyday goods exceeded the pace of wage growth.

The sentiment index dropped to 35.2 last month from 36.7 in March, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo, the lowest since March 2003.

The cost of daily necessities rose at twice the pace of wages in March, discouraging spending by consumers, whose outlays account for more than half of the economy. Falling consumer spending and waning corporate profits indicate that the world's second-largest economy is losing steam.

``This depressing situation for consumers will continue until gains in food and oil stop eroding real income,'' said Takehiro Sato, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``It's very hard to paint an optimistic picture for consumer spending with this sluggish wage growth.''

A report today showing that economic growth accelerated in the first quarter because of higher export demand hasn't altered people's views that growth will slow in coming months.

`Cautious'

Japan ``needs to be cautious about the outlook given the economy's dependence on foreign demand and the fact that capital spending is slowing,'' Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said today. ``Sentiment among consumers is worsening as they bear the burden of rising food and gasoline prices.''

Households pared spending at the fastest pace in 15 months in March as prices of frequently purchased goods from milk to eggs climbed 3.2 percent, the most in more than three years. Wages rose 1.2 percent in the month.

Some 86.2 percent of households predict prices will rise a year from now, the second-highest proportion on record, today's report said.

Wages may stall because companies can't raise pay as their profits are hurt by higher raw-material costs, NLI's Yajima said.

Japan Airlines Corp., Asia's largest carrier, said this week it will cut salaries and other benefits by 5 percent because profits are likely to drop 44.5 percent this year on fuel costs.

``The wave of inflation from oil and commodity prices is coming to Japan and companies can't make optimistic business plans,'' Masamitsu Sakurai, head of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives, or the Keizai Doyukai, said yesterday.

Equipment orders, which signal capital spending in the next three to six months, declined 8.3 percent and companies expect orders to fall 10.3 percent in the second quarter, the Cabinet Office said yesterday.

Sluggish profits are prompting companies to firing workers to save costs. Pioneer Corp., Japan's third-biggest plasma- television maker, will cut 300 jobs after forecasting its fifth straight annual loss this year, the company said this week. The number of jobs available to each applicant, a leading indicator for the job market, fell to the lowest in almost three years in March.

``Employment is showing signs of slowing down and increases in gasoline and food prices have depressed sentiment,'' said Naoki Murakami, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Tokyo. ``We see no full recovery scenario for consumption.''
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Japanese Stocks

Postby winston » Sun May 18, 2008 6:04 pm

GaveKal: Japanese equities are cheap

“The average dividend yield on Japanese equities is now clearly higher than the JGB yield. Historically, this has often been a good entry point for Japanese stocks.

“After years of underperformance, Japanese stocks are now very cheap. On our own equity model, the Nikkei is by far the most attractive from a valuation standpoint.”
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Re: Japan - General News

Postby winston » Mon May 19, 2008 9:21 am

TOKYO - Japanese manufacturers turned pessimistic about business conditions for the first time in five years in May as high raw material prices and a US slowdown eroded sentiment, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.
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Re: Japan - General News

Postby kennynah » Tue May 20, 2008 4:49 pm

only got 1/2% in his arsenal...yet so much to say.... arno arno...
*******************************

20 May 2008 08:42 GMT
BoJ's Shirakawa says slowdown becoming evident in Japan

TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa on Tuesday warned of an emerging economic slowdown in Japan, as surging crude oil and raw material costs squeeze profit growth at corporate Japan.

Strong earnings at Japanese companies and aggressive capital investments had supported the growth of the world's second-largest economy in recent years.

"Recent data show that exports (from Japan) have expanded across the globe, but they also confirmed the flat trend of industrial output, a moderation of the growth of corporate profits and a slowdown in the expansion of capital investment," Shirakawa said at a press conference following the BoJ's two-day policy board meeting.

"Thus, an economic slowdown is becoming more evident," he said.

The BoJ governor said surging crude oil and commodities prices combined with the appreciation of the yen are now "squeezing the growth of corporate earnings."

"We now need to assess if a weakening of the growth momentum of income, stemming from the deterioration of the terms and conditions of trade, will pose downside risks to domestic private demand," Shirakawa said.

"In particular, I'm watching closely how a deterioration of the terms and conditions of trade will affect corporate capital investments," he said.

"But how (domestic private demand) will react to surging commodity prices will vary country by country," Shirakawa said.

The BoJ governor also said that while extreme pessimism about the credit crisis has "eased somewhat" recently, global financial and capital markets continue to be unstable as a whole.

He said the Japanese central bank is also tasked with assessing the prospects of the U.S. economy, one of Japan's key trading nations, especially "whether or not a negative cycle will emerge" in the United States.

Shirakawa also said he wants to assess closely how last week's devastating earthquake in China will affect economic activity there. China's rapid economic expansion has been driving up the global economy in recent years.

The BoJ governor reiterated how he wants to manage monetary policy in the near-term.

"We will examine incoming data more closely to assess the feasibility of a standard economic outlook, as well as the upside potential and downside risks, and take appropriate policy action," he said.

At 0.5 percent, Japan's interest rates are the lowest in the developed world.

Referring to the banking sector, which has been the most exposed to the subprime loan problem in the U.S., Shirakawa said most Japanese banks have so far reported bigger-than-expected subprime-related losses in the year to March 2008, with some of them even reporting net losses.

"But losses are still at levels that can be absorbed by profits that banks generate. I therefore believe that these losses will not shake the Japanese banking system," he said.

"Japanese banks have not changed their lending stance, too, which means that the (positive) effects of accommodative monetary policy are not weakening," Shirakawa said.
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Re: Japan - General News

Postby winston » Thu May 22, 2008 1:37 pm

Japan's Export Growth Quickens to 4% on Asian Demand (Update3)
By Jason Clenfield

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's export growth quickened more than economists estimated in April as shipments to Asia and emerging markets helped the nation weather the U.S. slowdown.

Exports, the driver of more than half of last quarter's expansion, rose 4 percent from a year earlier after climbing 2.3 percent in March, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.5 percent increase.

Shipments to the U.S. fell for an eighth month, extending the worst streak since 2004, as the yen gained and the housing recession stifled demand for cars and electronics in Japan's biggest market. Growth in China and a commodities boom in Russia and the Middle East have helped exporters including Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. and Komatsu Inc. resist the U.S. slump.

``There's a new global growth dynamic,'' Huw McKay, senior international economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney, said on Bloomberg Television. ``Japanese manufacturers are so diversified, they're in as good a position as any to take advantage of that.''

The yen traded at 102.84 per dollar at 12:24 p.m. in Tokyo from 103.07 before the report was published. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond rose 5 basis points to 1.655 percent.

Imports climbed 11.9 percent from a year earlier as oil prices surged to a record, narrowing the trade surplus by 46.3 percent to 485 billion yen ($4.7 billion), the ministry said. Economists expected a surplus of 739 billion yen.

U.S., China

Shipments to the U.S. fell 9.1 percent in April from a year earlier. Export growth to China accelerated to 14.1 percent last month from 3.1 percent in March. Shipments to Asia, where Japan ships about half its exports, rose 7.2 percent after gaining 1.8 percent a month earlier. Those to Europe climbed 1.3 percent.

``While exports to the U.S. will keep slumping because the country's economy is almost in a recession, exports to Asia and emerging countries will remain solid,'' said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities in Tokyo. ``With oil prices soaring, exports to the Middle East and Russia will remain strong.''

Fumio Ohtsubo, president of Matsushita Electric, last month said demand for Panasonic televisions in the Middle East and Russia will help profit climb 10 percent to a record in the year ending March 31.

Komatsu, Japan's largest maker of earthmovers, last month forecast a fifth year of record earnings, helped by sales of construction and mining equipment in China and resource-rich countries.

Profit Squeeze

Exports to emerging markets helped Japan's growth accelerate to an annual 3.3 percent pace last quarter.

Still, costlier raw materials and a stronger yen are squeezing profits even as exports grow. Crude oil has doubled in the past year and soared to a record $135.04 a barrel today. Japan imports virtually all of its oil.

``The main problem for Japan isn't the U.S., it's the terms of trade,'' said Westpac's McKay. ``Margins are under serious threat.''

Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said today that rising oil prices are giving a ``big shock'' to the world's second-largest economy. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said this week that costlier energy and raw materials may cause companies and consumers to pare spending, slowing the economy's longest postwar expansion.

Toyota Motor Corp., the nation's biggest automaker, expects falling U.S. sales, higher commodity prices and the stronger yen to erode earnings. Sony Corp. last week said profit at its electronics division will fall this year because of the currency's gains.

Stronger Yen

The yen traded 14 percent higher against the dollar in April from the same month a year earlier, eroding the value of exports when repatriated and making Japan's goods less competitive abroad. About half of the nation's shipments overseas are settled in dollars.

The U.S. slowdown is beginning to take its a toll on Asia. Shipments of semiconductors and electrical parts to China fell for a sixth month, today's report showed.

``This shows the spillover from the U.S.,'' said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``Those parts are used in products that are assembled in China and then exported to the U.S.''
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Re: Japanese Stocks

Postby kennynah » Fri May 23, 2008 8:03 pm

23 May 2008 12:00 GMT

BULLET: BANK OF JAPAN: Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki on.....

BANK OF JAPAN: Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa on Friday sought to reassure that a recent uptick in long-term borrowing costs in major countries is not choking growth while repeating his vow to safeguard price stability through pre-emptive interest rate hikes at home, if necessary.

However, in a group interview with Market News International and other news organizations, the governor warned that it would be foolhardy to suppress general increases in goods and services prices simply to offset the effects of a spike in energy prices.
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Re: Japan

Postby winston » Mon Jun 02, 2008 8:56 pm

From kennynah with thanks:-

(RTTNews) - According to official data released Friday 30may08), the Japanese unemployment rate grew slightly more than expected to 4% in April, up from the 3.8% rate in March.
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Re: Asian Economic Data

Postby kennynah » Wed Jun 04, 2008 7:01 pm

04 Jun 2008 10:58 GMT

JAPAN: Data released in Japan Wednesday,
** Q1 non-financial firms capex -4.9% y/y vs -7.7% in Q4
- Q1 non-fincl firms current profits -17.5% y/y vs -4.5% Q4
- Q1 manufacturer capex +0.9% y/y vs +0.5% Q4
- Q1 non-manufacturer capex -7.8% vs Q4 -12.0%
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