Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:34 pm

<Research Report>Citi: Macau GGR Sees Accelerated Growth since Dec; Keeps Dec Forecast at +4% YoY to MOP19B

Citigroup, in its report, said that based on industry sources, Macau table GGR for the first four days in December could have reached MOP7 billion, reaching MOP7.3 billion with the inclusion of slot-related revenue.

Over the past 11 days, daily run-rate equals to MOP688 million, up 7% than that of MOP626 million in November.

The research house maintains December GGR forecast at a yearly rise of 4% to MOP19 billion.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:29 am

<Research Report>UBS Latest Ratings & TPs for Casinos (Table)

UBS, in its report, updated the latest investment ratings and target prices of Macau gaming stocks:

Stock/ Investment Rating/ Target Price (HK$)
GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)/ Buy/ 35.6->42.5
WYNN MACAU (01128.HK)/ Buy/ 15.1->15.5
SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)/ Neutral/ 33.1->35
SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)/ Sell->Neutral/ 5.2->6.7
MGM CHINA (02282.HK)/ Neutral->Sell/14.3->15.2

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:42 am

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<Research Report>UBS Lifts Macau GGR Forecast; Raises Targets for Casinos

UBS, in its report, said with a new calculation model, its forecasts of gross gaming revenue (GGR) will likely be higher than the original one, and more in line with market expectation.

However, policy overhang could drag on sentiment in the near term, so the broker maintained Neutral on the sector.

Top picks are GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) and WYNN MACAU (01128.HK), and the broker downgraded MGM CHINA (02282.HK) to Sell.

The new model predicted higher-than-expected mass GGR growth of 15%/14% yearly, and a project VIP GGR drop of 11%/9% yearly in 4Q16 and 1Q17 respectively.

Total GGR is projected to grow 2%/3% yearly in 4Q16/1Q17.

UBS raised its 2016-18 market GGR forecasts by 1-6%, driven by the higher-than-expected growth in October and November.

The broker raised its sector EBITDA estimate by 9% for 2017, and expected the sector EBITDA to grow 14% yearly in 2017, broadly in line with consensus.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:42 pm

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Morgan Stanley, in its report, updated its latest Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast:

Revenue (US$)/ Forecast for 2016/ for 2017/ for 2018
Gross revenue/ 27.395 billion -> 27.996 billion/ 28.065 billion -> 30.911 billion/ 29.316 billion -> 32.694 billion
VIP revenue/ 12.131 billion -> 12.738 billion/ 11.646 billion -> 13.503 billion/ 11.646 billion -> 13.773 billion
Mass revenue/ 13.651 billion -> 13.641 billion/ 14.725 billion -> 15.647 billion/ 15.891 billion -> 17.055 billion
Slot revenue/ 1.613 billion -> 1.616 billion/ 1.694 billion -> 1.761 billion/ 1.779 billion -> 1.867 billion

Revenue YoY Chg/ Forecast for 2016/ for 2017/ for 2018
Gross revenue/ -5% -> -3%/ +2 -> +10%/ +4% -> +6%
VIP revenue/ -16% -> -12%/ -4% -> +6%/ 0% -> +2%
Mass revenue/ +6% -> +8%/ +8% -> +15%/ +8% -> +9%
Slot revenue/ -1% -> -2%/ +5% -> +9%/ +5% -> +6

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:43 pm

<Research Report>M Stanley's Latest Ratings & TPs for Macau Gaming Stocks (Table)

Morgan Stanley, in its report, updated its latest ratings and target prices for Macau gaming stocks:

Shares/ Ratings/ Target prices (HK$)
WYNN MACAU (01128.HK)/ Overweight/ 13.5->15.0
GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)/ Overweight/ 35.5->40.0
SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)/ Equalweight/ 33.8->36
MGM CHINA (02282.HK)/ Equalweight/ 13.8->17.6
Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL)/ Equalweight/ US$18.9
SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)/ Underweight/ 5.3->5.7

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:29 am

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<Research Report>M Stanley: Casinos Cyclical Rebound to Sustain to 1Q17

Morgan Stanley, in its report, said Macau mass revenue growth decelerated to 5% yearly in November, from 10% and 14% in September and October, respectively.

On a reclassification-adjusted basis, mass growth was 10%. but that is still down from 16% yearly in each of September and October.

In absolute terms, mass revenue for the industry of MOP9.7 billion (adjusted) was the lowest since July, despite the opening of Wynn Palace and The Parisian Macao in August and September, respectively.

Morgan Stanley believed that the cyclical rebound in fundamentals will continue until 1Q17, as indicated by China PPI.

Despite current valuations being less stretched at 13.7x forward EV/EBITDA after the 16% decline in the group since late November (vs. -9% for Hang Seng Index), the broker saw downside risks to valuations in the near term if December (or any month) GGR growth is less than 10% and/or China further tightens capital outflow.

For next year, the broker favoured WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) and GALAXY ENT (00027.HK).

Wynn Macau is expected to reach over 30% EBITDA growth in 2017 and 5% F2016 dividend yield, while Galaxy has attractive valuation and relatively intact market share.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:28 pm

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<Research Report>Nomura Lifts Macau 2017 GGR Growth to 10%; Eyes on VIP Sustainability

Nomura, in its report, revised up Macau 2017 GGR growth forecast to 10% in which VIP and mass are expected to record a growth of 10% and 11% respectively.

However, the research house is dubious about whether VIP growth could reach 15% since Beijing policy risk will be higher whenever junket growth rises.

Worse still, the Mainland plugged the currency flow of Macau while the Macau government plans for tighten the threshold for junkets.

The broker remains cautious to Macau gaming industry and prefers the gaming industry in Las Vegas instead.

Nomura believes that Macau GGR growth needs to report over 15% growth to increase the valuation of Macau gaming stocks.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:33 am

Macau braces for post-holiday crunch

Despite a rebound in gaming revenues, new Macau hotels including The Parisian Macao, Wynn Palace and Studio City have cut room rates to attract customers early next year after the holiday season. The price is at a modest HK$822 for one night.

Wynn Palace is giving out its four- month celebration special rate for HK$822 yesterday, and at the same time a three-day sale of a 30 percent off from the standard rate. The offer will be available for any stays between January 2 and June 30 next year.

Studio City, which commenced last year, rolled out earlier the "double 12 spectacular hotel offers". For any bookings before December 26 for stays between January 3 and June 30, the room rate is as low as HK$828 with a HK$100 stay and play voucher and a 200 macau pataca entertainment voucher.

The Parisian Macao, which opened in September this year, gave out its package offer. For any booking and stay before February 28 in king deluxe room, one-way ferry tickets from Macau to Hong Kong or tickets of travel attractions will be given.

The special offers are believed to boost up revenues from room booking in the first half next year, as promotions earlier this month have resulted in rooms being fully occupied for the Christmas holidays.

Rooms of 10 Macau hotels from December 24 to 26 are almost fully occupied. Among, all rooms of Wynn Palace, Four Seasons Hotel Macao and Banyan Tree Macao are fully occupied, while the rest only left for rooms with rates over HK$3,000.

Room rate for Christmas holidays doubled from the rate for normal weekends. The cheapest rate was offered by The Parisian Macao, which was HK$2698 before tax.

While most of the rates are between HK$2,000 and HK$4,000 before tax, rates of Galaxy Macau were higher, reaching as much as HK$4,900 per night.

The surging room booking this year was due to the promotions rolled out by hotels earlier, said Alfred Lau, an analyst at Bocom International, to local media.

He said room rate and non-gaming factors only contributed 10-15 percent of revenues, but high occupancy rate usually resulted in a higher revenue from gaming. Thus he expected an increasing revenue of gaming industry in December and January.

Source: The Standardd
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:26 pm

<Research Report>Macquarie Latest Ratings & TPs for Casinos (Table)

Macquarie, in its report, listed its latest investment ratings and target prices for Macau gaming stocks:

Stock/ Rating/ Target Price (HK$)
WYNN MACAU (01128.HK)/ Outperform/ 16.5
GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)/Outperform/38.0
SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)/Outperform/6.5
MGM CHINA (02282.HK)/Outperform/16.3
SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)/Neutral/ 34.2

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Macau 04 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:24 am

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<Research Report>Macquarie: Survey Says Macau Daily GGR $510M in Recent Week; Expects 9% Growth in Dec

Macquarie, in its report, cited the weekly table-only GGR estimates published by Asia Pacific Gaming Consultancy (APG), expecting the Macau average daily run rate (ADR) at about $513 million for 19-26 December.

With slots revenue estimated at $950 million for the full month, APG forecasted the overall December GGR to be $18.6 billion, up 5% yearly.

Macquarie earlier expected the December GGR to rise 9%, as compared to market consensus estimate of 7%.

Macquarie is still comfortable with its forecast, affirmed by its 3-day channel check in Macau last week.

Considering the holiday season this week together with an early Lunar New Year next month, Macquarie expected a strong finish in December as well as next January.

Overall, the sector is trading at a 13x EV/EBITDA, and the broker expected the an about 18% EBITDA CAGR for the coming three years.

Macquarie maintained bullish on Macau stocks, with WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) chosen as the top pick, as the broker expected it to gain the most market share.

Macquarie also liked GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), as it has an established relationship with Beijing as well as an abundant Cotai land bank.

The broker also liked SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK), Melco Crown and MGM CHINA (02282.HK), while being Neutral on SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) due to high valuation.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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