China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Mar 16)

Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:29 pm

Mounting debts could derail China plans to cut steel, coal glut

BY DAVID STANWAY

China's campaign to slim down its bloated industries could be derailed by more than $1.5 trillion of debt in its steel, coal, cement and non-ferrous metal sectors, which threatens to overwhelm local banks.

Source: Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china ... SKCN0WO35T
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:12 pm

刊促習下台公開信
無界傳媒清盤
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/internati ... 4/19542678
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:50 am

Closer Look: Vaccine Scandal Has Roots in Officials' Push for Profits
http://english.caixin.com/2016-03-24/100924301.html



China's Rural Youngsters Drop Out of School at Alarming Rate, Researchers Find
http://english.caixin.com/2016-03-24/100924309.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 25, 2016 4:18 pm

Everyone is worried that a third China bubble is about to pop

By Linette Lopez

First, China's property bubble popped.

Then, China's stock market bubble burst over the summer, and investors lost a ton of money before the government took control of the system.

Now the concern floating around the world of markets is that the third in China's "triple bubble" is about to burst.

That bubble is credit, especially corporate bonds,
which have absolutely exploded over the past year as refugees from the other bubble bursts searched for yield.


Corporate-bond issuance increased 21% from 2014 to 2015, and by the end of last year their total stock made up 21.6% of GDP, as opposed 18.4% the year before, according to Societe Generale.


In March alone the government allowed 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) of local-government debt to be converted into local-government bonds (LGB). In 2016 analysts expect the government to issue another 6 trillion yuan in LGBs.


Source: Business Insider

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/everyone- ... 37292.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:09 pm

More Bad China Debt News: SOE Defaults on $2.3 Billion

By Valentin Schmid

According to Caixin, the state-owned enterprise (SOE) Guangxi Nonferrous Metals Group Co. defaulted on $2.31 billion of its debts, including debts to banks, suppliers, as well as private bondholders.


Since 2014, a number of Chinese companies like real estate developer Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. have defaulted on selected debts; however, outright bankruptcies and restructurings remained few and far between and the amounts were relatively small.


Source: Epoch Times

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2001223 ... 3-billion/
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 27, 2016 9:14 am

by behappyalways:-

Chinese economic data: Fudge-ocracy

The way to get ahead in China is to manipulate statistics

IN THEORY, Chinese officials receive promotions based on their performance against a range of targets: delivering strong growth, maintaining social stability and, until recently, enforcing the one-child policy. But scholars debate whether the system really rewards those who excel according to these (in any case flawed) metrics.

Some believe the emphasis on merit is real, and helps explain China’s stunning economic progress over the past 35 years. Others reckon that connections to the right leaders matter more for those trying to advance their careers. New research, however, suggests a third option: that those who get ahead are adept not at stimulating growth nor at currying favour, but at cooking the books.

A recent paper from America’s National Bureau of Economic Research uses fertility rates as a way to test this theory. Economists have found a relationship between GDP growth in an official’s fiefdom and subsequent promotion, but it is difficult to know how accurate the GDP figures are (a question that haunts anyone following the Chinese economy).

Population data are different: in addition to the figures provided by local officials, China conducts a census every ten years, revising population data all the way down to the village level. That makes it possible to pinpoint where bureaucrats have been fiddling the statistics.

Examining data on 967 mayors in 28 provinces from 1985 to 2000, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Xiao Yu Wang of Duke University and Shuang Zhang of University of Colorado, Boulder, find that officials who claimed to have suppressed population growth were rewarded. Mayors who reduced the local birth rate by one child per 1,000 people per year by their own count had a 10% greater chance of being promoted.

But the relationship between fertility rates and career trajectory disappears when using the census data rather than the figures reported by the local officials themselves. Mayors who received promotions were no better or worse at curbing population growth than those who did not.

The way to get ahead in the Chinese bureaucracy, it seems, is to falsify statistics. It makes you wonder what other data have been doctored.

Source: The Economist
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 27, 2016 10:10 pm

Massive Protests Emerge as China’s Economy Slows

By Li Zhen

Tens of thousands of angry employees from the state-owned Longmay Mining Group, the biggest coal enterprise in Heilongjiang Province, staged protests for several days over unpaid wages.

Around 1,000 workers of the largest steelworks in Jilin Province also rallied over unpaid salaries.

According to Hong Kong’s China Labour Bulletin’s statistics, Chinese workers’ strikes and protests in 2015 amounted to nearly 2,800, a figure twice as high as in 2014 and 14 times higher than in 2011.

According to statistics, 704 group protests occurred in the first two months of 2016, exceeding the sum of all protests in 2013.


Source: Epoch Times

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2004355 ... omy-slows/
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:49 pm

China bank profits flat-line as bad debts continue to soar

BY SHU ZHANG AND MATTHEW MILLER

Six cuts in the central bank's benchmark interest rate over 17 months has narrowed lenders' net interest margins - or the difference between interest earned on loans and funds extended. Analysts expect slow economic growth and reforms to prompt more cuts.


Non-performing loans (NPLs) reached a 10 year high of 1.27 trillion yuan ($195 billion) last year, or 1.67 percent of all loans outstanding


Analysts said some banks appear to be delaying recognizing some loans as soured. The potential real bad loan ratio may be 8 percent to 9 percent, banking analyst Li Nan at Beijing Gao Hua Securities


Chinese banks are required to set aside funds equivalent to at least 150 percent of bad loans to cover losses. That loan loss provision for the sector as a whole was 181 percent at the end of last year. But, at September-end, it was as low as 153.7 percent at BOC and 157.6 percent at ICBC.


Source: Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china ... orethebell
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:16 pm

China launders cash of foreign criminals

By ERIKA KINETZ, TIA GOLDENBERG, DANIEL ESTRIN and RAPHAEL SATTER

Source: Associated Press

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ap-invest ... 48238.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby winston » Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:36 am

Growth in China ?

by Bryan Rich and William Meade

We talked last week about the weakness in the Chinese economy, which has been compounded by the weak–yen policies in Japan (which threatens China's king–of–exports throne). And we know, based on history, Chinese policymakers won't sit back and let weak global demand and a currency war from Japan undo the path of their economy.

They've already reversed course on their currency policy of the past decade, as they've begun taking back some of the appreciation of the yuan of the past 10 years. And they've already responded with more rate cuts and bank stimulus. But with growth running at recession–like levels in China (even at 6%), expect them to do more, maybe a lot more.

That plays in perfectly with what we have expected to be the biggest theme of the year for markets — surprisingly aggressive action from China to stimulate their economy and, in turn, fuel the global economy and a recovery in commodities.

Billionaire investor David Tepper agrees. He's the man that bought the bottom in banking stocks in 2009, and later completely changed broad stock market sentiment in 2010 by interpreting the Fed actions as a green light to buy stocks. Late last year, he predicted that the Chinese central bank will give global growth and global demand a shot in the arm this year, by aggressively cutting rates and stimulating their economy through a variety of measures that will surprise the consensus view.

If Chinese policymakers do indeed act, and aggressively, this chart on commodities could represent one of the great trades of the decade. Remember, when China rolled out aggressive stimulus in 2009, they began stockpiling commodities that were trading at dirt cheap prices in the depths of the global financial crisis (the huge bounce in the chart below initiated from the middle circle).
chart

Moreover, devaluations of the yuan help the Chinese rebuild currency reserves. What have they done with those reserves historically? They buy a lot of U.S. Treasurys. They buy a lot of commodities.

Technically, the chart on broad commodities looks very intriguing. The Goldman Sachs Composite Commodities Index (the chart above) is trading into a triple bottom and 16-year trendline support (actually, already bouncing).

Source: Forbes
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