China - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

Re: HK & China

Postby kennynah » Thu Jun 19, 2008 11:09 pm

allo L :

abt the china stand on removing oil subsidies...m not sure, but it was certainly reported by cnbc this evening that china has decided to raise fuel prices.... but they do mean the same thing, right?....haha...ang moh words... many ways to say the same thing...
Options Strategies & Discussions .(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas

Image..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................Image
User avatar
kennynah
Lord of the Lew Lian
 
Posts: 16005
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 2:00 am
Location: everywhere.. and nowhere..

Re: HK & China

Postby LenaHuat » Thu Jun 19, 2008 11:12 pm

Hello K
Yes, here's the Chinese news :
[新聞]中央明日起調高汽油柴油價
(明報) 06月 19日 星期四 10:35PM
國家發展改革委周四宣布,自周五起將汽油、柴油價格每噸提高1千元,航空煤油價格每噸提高1千5百元。

聲明又稱,液化氣、天然氣價格不作調整。
Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. ImageImage**Image**Image@@ImageImageImage
User avatar
LenaHuat
Big Boss
 
Posts: 3229
Joined: Thu May 08, 2008 9:35 am

Re: HK & China

Postby kennynah » Thu Jun 19, 2008 11:14 pm

for the benefit of winston....

gasoline prices up RMB1K/ton, jet fuel up RMB1.5K/ton
Options Strategies & Discussions .(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas

Image..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................Image
User avatar
kennynah
Lord of the Lew Lian
 
Posts: 16005
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 2:00 am
Location: everywhere.. and nowhere..

Re: HK & China

Postby winston » Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:36 am

1) Should be good for Sinopec & Petrochina and the stockmarkets of HK & China today
2) With electricity prices being increased, there is less pressure to cap the price of coal for too long. However, there is a Resource tax coming up on Coal companies. There was mention of a cap on thermal coal. May not be good for Coal Companies today especially those that are leveraged to spot prices.
3) The Independent Power Producers ( IPPs ) should do well today as well

========================================

China Raises Fuel, Power Prices to Curb Energy Consumption
By Wang Ying and Theresa Tang

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, will raise gasoline and diesel prices by at least 17 percent as of today and increase power tariffs to rein in energy consumption and slow the economy.

Gasoline will increase 17 percent to 6,980 yuan ($1,015) a metric ton from 5,980 yuan, diesel will rise 18 percent to 6,520 yuan and jet fuel will climb by 1,500 yuan, or 25 percent, to 7,450 yuan, the National Development and Reform Commission said on its Web site yesterday. On July 1, China will boost electricity prices by an average 0.025 yuan a kilowatt-hour and cap thermal coal prices until the end of this year.

The Chinese authorities want to curb growth and ease pressure on the state-owned refining companies which have been hurt by rising oil costs. The move, which risks boosting inflation, follows similar fuel price increases in India, Malaysia and Indonesia.

``This pushes inflation up in China but contributes to easing inflationary pressure elsewhere in the world,'' Merrill Lynch & Co.'s head of global commodities research, Francisco Blanch, said by phone yesterday.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and PetroChina Co., the nations two largest oil refiners, surged in U.S. trading. Sinopec, as China Petroleum is known, rose $1.37, or 3.4 percent, to $42.20 at 1:32 p.m. in New York yesterday, while PetroChina gained $5.85, or 4.4 percent, to $140.38.

Energy Use

The country must cut energy use by at least 5 percent for every unit of gross domestic product annually for the next three years to meet its 2010 objective, Yang Tiesheng, director of the commission's energy efficiency division, said at the Energy Efficiency Asia conference in Beijing yesterday.

``It is an extremely difficult target to meet, but I'm optimistic that the government will achieve it by making the utmost effort,'' Yang said.

The country cut energy use by 2.62 percent for every 10,000 yuan ($1,454) of GDP in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, an NDRC official said. The government aims to pare energy use by 20 percent for each unit of GDP in 2010 from 2005 levels.

The world's fourth-largest economy expanded 10.6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the ninth straight quarter of double-digit growth. Driving the expansion were factories powered by dirty coal while the wealth following the nation's economic expansion spurred car sales and fuel demand.

Environmental Tax

The government is considering a so-called environmental tax, a new levy on auto fuels and changes to existing taxes on natural-resource use, Fu Jing, deputy director of policy and legislation at the State Administration of Taxation, said at the conference.

China may tax the use of products that pollute the environment or aren't energy-efficient, the China Securities Journal reported yesterday, citing Vice Finance Minister Zhang Shaochun.

The nation seeks to reduce energy use for each unit of GDP to 0.98 ton of coal equivalent by 2010 from 1.22 tons in 2005, Yang said today. China used 1.17 tons for every unit of GDP last year, Xu Dingming, director general of the commission's energy bureau, said in February.

China's largest investment bank said earlier this week the country, the world's biggest energy consumer after the U.S., should raise fuel prices by 50 percent to improve energy efficiency.

The nation needs to increase oil-product prices as rising subsidies pose ``considerable risks'' to fiscal sustainability, China International Capital Corp. economists including Ha Jiming and Gao Ting wrote in a report on June 16.

The level of international oil prices depends ``to a significant degree'' on China's energy pricing policy, as the country accounts for about 40 percent of the increase in global consumption, the bank said.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: HK & China

Postby winston » Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:48 am

From Reuters ( truncated )..

Beijing will also raise average electricity tariffs by 0.025 yuan/kwh or about 4.7 percent on average, a rise that will primarily affect industrial and commercial users, the NDRC, China's top planning body, said on its website.

The rise, which will be effective from July 1, is its first broad increase in years and will bolster power companies struggling with the soaring cost of coal, which generates some three quarters of China's electricity. Beijing meantime announced that it will freeze thermal coal prices, which would further safeguard profits for power firms to help avert brownouts as peak summer use nears.

The latest increase took many market watchers by surprise as Beijing has repeatedly vowed to rule out "near-term" price increases to battle high inflation and avoid social unrest barely two months away from the Beijing Olympics.

Fearful of stirring popular resentment, Beijing pledged subsidies to weaker groups such as farmers, fishermen and cab drivers, right after the announcement of the price hike.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: HK & China

Postby millionairemind » Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:55 am

For those who like an "almost" real time index info for SSE and Shenzhen. SSE going down at -1.25% at the moment :(

http://stock.business.sohu.com/p/bkzs.php
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 8183
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: HK & China

Postby LenaHuat » Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:24 pm

Key consideration for the Chinese govt : Fiscal Prudence.
Next, we might see the Indian govt doing it. Govts can go bankrupt subsidizing oil and diesel at such crazy prices.
Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. ImageImage**Image**Image@@ImageImageImage
User avatar
LenaHuat
Big Boss
 
Posts: 3229
Joined: Thu May 08, 2008 9:35 am

Re: HK & China

Postby winston » Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:03 pm

winston wrote:But what would they be doing ?
1) margin trading ?
2) increase QFII quota ?
3) approve more Mutual Fund products ?
4) increase gasoline prices ? This would make Sinopec and Petrochina jump. The index will then go up as these two are heavyweights on the index
5) increase the windfall tax threshold for Petrochina from the current US$40 to say, US$100 ? Propping up Petrochina
6) loosen lending to corporations that want to borrow money to invest in the stockmarket ?
7) using the Social Security Fund to invest in the stock market ?
8) giving a higher quota to life insurance companies to invest in the market ?
etc..



Now that they have done #4, what would they be doing next ?? They need to sustain the momentum....

It was down 2% initially in SH, then up 6% and then close up 3%.

HK was even more volatile. Up 600 and then close down 50. Too afraid to buy a put when it was up 600 :(

Lena was spot on wrt the global implications :). I was focusing on the implications for HK and SH. Did not expect Oil to drop $5 in NY last night. Tells me that Oil may be quite weak...
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: HK & China

Postby millionairemind » Mon Jun 23, 2008 12:52 pm

Saw this piece of Chinese news in CNA forum.

据香港文汇报报道,持续一年的惨淡楼市,使得深圳不少炒房客从拥有千亿元物业的“亿万富翁”变成“负翁”(负资产),深圳开始清查商业银行坏账。有业内人士透露,不少客户一人手中就有上亿元物业,但几十套豪宅无法套现,还款困难。

   深圳中原香蜜湖片区一负责人透露,不少客户手中拥有数十套物业,每套上百万甚至数百万元,物业总资产达到上亿元。这些物业大多是去年楼价高峰期前后购入,如香蜜湖一豪宅楼盘,买入时均价每平米3.5万-4万元,加上业主的房贷利息,业主只有盈利30-50%才愿意出手,否则不如“捂盘”。

   “不少人是在去年9月前入市,当时楼价最高峰,每套房首付不过3-4成,一套房月供需要1万多元,如果手里有20多套,那一个月需要还贷20多万元,但是现在房子根本卖不出去,业主也不愿意贱价割让。”据该人士透露,这些豪宅客户不少资金链已经出现问题,其物业大多集中在香蜜湖片区、东部海滨片区以及南山片区。他介绍,在香蜜湖地区的房产中介,不少代理的客户都是同时炒十几套房子,每套房子少则百万元,多则400万-500万元。

   有资深地产代理透露,最明智的炒家已经在去年7月左右就撤资了,而现在留守的炒家,不少原来是亿万身家的业主,现在变成负资产一族。有代理预计,这部分客户熬过了今年春节,但熬不过今年夏天。

   负资产源于投机性炒作。据深圳本地中介机构统计,去年深圳楼市中70%的购房者为投资客,实际购房自住的不到30%。深圳楼市今年以来的暴跌可以被视为“挤压泡沫”。

   有业内人士透露,当前深圳确实已出现部分楼盘因价格下跌而出现还贷危机,甚至数月都还不了贷款。这批楼盘主要掌握在深圳炒家手中,主要分布在宝安、龙华及特区内的部分豪宅片区。除了深圳本地炒家外,还有来自北京、香港、江浙一带的炒家。

   银监局方面称,深圳银监局已经开始调查深圳银行的坏账情况,调查主要包括调集银行最新贷款数据,了解坏账比例,并测算坏账总量。针对网络传言,深圳银监局人士回应媒体称,当前来看,应该还到不了千亿元坏账的地步
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 8183
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: HK & China

Postby winston » Mon Jun 23, 2008 5:07 pm

Have they run out of bullets to prop up the market or do they have something else up their
sleeves ?

================================

China Regulator Says to Act to Ensure Stable Markets (Update1)
By Zhao Yidi

June 23 (Bloomberg) -- China's securities regulator pledged to control the pace of new share sales and tighten market supervision to ease volatility after a 47 percent slump in the benchmark index this year.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission will ``rationally balance supply and demand of the capital market, and adjust the pace of financing in an orderly way,'' Chairman Shang Fulin said in a statement. The watchdog will punish people who spread rumors to cause ``market instability,'' he said.

The CSI 300 Index fell as much as 2.8 percent after the statement, carried on the front pages of securities newspapers today, failed to bolster investor confidence. The index completed a record 10-day losing streak last week on concern that government efforts to tame inflation will erode earnings.

``The CSRC's statement isn't very effective because the main driving force for the market is monetary policy,''
said Cheng Weiqing, Beijing-based chief strategist at Citic Securities Co. ``The market is concerned about further pressure from tightening monetary policy.''

China has been looking at ways to bolster the stock market. Last week, the government agreed to let overseas fund managers repatriate principal and profits more quickly, a move that may increase the allure of domestic stocks to overseas investors.

People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on June 20 that the central bank may formulate ``stronger policies'' to tackle inflation. The consumer price index rose 7.7 percent from a year earlier in May.

The CSI 300 dropped 1 percent to 2,822.50 at the 11:30 a.m. trading break in Shanghai. The index has fallen 52 percent from its peak in October, after climbing more than sixfold in the previous two years.

Supply Concern

Concern that the supply of new stock may overwhelm demand has also weighed on China's stock market, Asia's second-worst performer this year.

The commission will publish a list of the number of shares that can now be traded after lock-ups expired, Shang said in the statement, published on the regulator's Web site late yesterday.

Shang said the regulator would also take more effective measures to investigate and punish people who spread rumors that ``disturb and increase market instability'' to ensure long-term, sustainable development.

Wang Yi, vice president of China Development Bank, is under administrative detention for alleged ``illegal activities'' in the stock market, the Hong Kong-based Oriental Morning Post reported on June 14, without saying where it got the information.

Corruption scandals helped to prolong a four-year bear market that dragged the then-benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down by more than half by July 2005.

Shang said the regulator would act as market fluctuations had become larger due to ``internal and external situations'' and investor confidence had been hampered.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to Archives

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests