China - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:57 pm

China shortens IPO lock-up period

China shortened the trading moratorium for investors who buy stakes in initial public offers to one year from three years, a move that may encourage strategic investors deterred by the lengthy lock up.

Companies will also no longer have to halt trading of their shares during annual earnings announcements and profit forecasts, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges said.

Stocks with volatile and "abnormal'' movements due to speculation will be suspended, they said. The new rules take effect on October 1.

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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby Niczach » Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:52 pm

六大行业裁员降薪调查: 电力最惨员工月薪两百

六大行业裁员降薪调查: 悄悄裁员,有的公司还嘴硬
  由于大量中小企业陷入困境,经济下滑的痕迹越来越明显,中国就业形势不容乐观。其中,房地产、电力、券商、能源、纺织、机械制造等行业出现了较明显的降薪裁员现象。理财一周报对六大行业样本的薪酬裁员情况进行了调查。
东方早报理财一周记者林奇

房地产:裁员减薪应对熊市
  从今年下半年开始,一些城市的房产企业开始裁员的消息逐渐多了起来。种种迹象表明,国内房地产企业进入了一个人力资源的调整期。今年中报显示,77家地产上市公司中,有16家下调了“支付给职工以及为职工支付的现金”。
  其中,宜华地产由去年同期的0.08亿元,下降到今年的0.02亿元,下降幅度为79.01%;天保基建(000965)由0.16亿元下降到0.07亿元,下降幅度为57.61%;长春经开由0.21亿元下降到0.12亿元,下降幅度为42.52%;新黄浦(600638)由0.13亿元下降到0.08亿元,下降幅度为37.54%;银基发展(000511)由0.08亿元下降到0.06亿元,下降幅度为22.79%。
  “我们没有裁员,你看一下主营业务是涨的,但是我们在压缩成本。”银基发展证券代表对理财一周报表示。去年楼市火热的时候,银基发展职工成本支出还在大幅增长。年报显示,去年银基发展支付职工现金0.13亿元,高于2006年的0.08亿元。
  海泰发展(600082)董秘办工作人员表示,其上半年的业绩是上涨的,但是由于没有达到预期的目标,所以公司采取降工资的方式刺激一下职工,如果大家下半年努力能达到全年的目标,奖金会一并发回来的,如果达不到目标工资就真的降了。上述人员告诉记者,“其实今年房地产企业都缺钱,现金流都很紧张,这与‘一保一控’的政策有关,既要保发展,又要控通胀,从紧的政策肯定不会轻易放松,有人预计今年年底会放松,但我估计就算年底松了,明年还会紧,毕竟要控制住通胀。

  据中国证券报报道,重庆市最大的房地产企业之一华宇集团近期开始大幅裁员,裁员规模高达10%~20%。在重庆某房产网上,另一家公司也裁员200人左右。据报道,成都地区两家知名房地产企业近期也在裁员。据称,由于突如其来的大地震,其中一家公司已将本地招聘的75名员工中的60名裁掉。
  广州某地产龙头企业负责人表示,为保持团队的相对稳定性,更多的房地产企业采用的是自然减员的策略。由于员工跳槽及大学生毕业等缘故,每年7月底以后都是房地产企业招聘的高峰期,一些企业不准备招新员工,再加上跳槽员工及退休的员工,基本可实现自然减员。值得一提的是,一些房地产经纪公司也卷入了裁员风暴。据已公开的信息显示,河南居易国际集团也正准备大规模裁员,裁员幅度可能高达40%,涉及行政、后勤、工程及技术等部门的人员。
  居易国际一直定位为房地产全程服务管理商,除郑州之外,北京、沈阳、济南、南京等多个大中城市居易国际均有“涉足”。居易国际的员工多达几千人。如果按40%的比例计算,居易国际此次至少会裁掉1000人左右。
  中国经营报报道,上海某知名的房地产广告设计企业,今年以来业务萎缩了一半以上,而广告设计行业,主要的成本就是人员成本,人员工资相当高,因此不得不裁员。

电力:最惨员工月薪仅200多元
  垄断行业电力企业高薪水的问题,长期受到诟病。今年以来,迫于成本上升的经营压力,部分电力企业开始降薪。沪深两市共有46家电力企业,今年中报显示,共有10家电力企业“支付给职工以及为职工支付的现金”出现下降。
  豫能控股(001896)、通宝能源(600780)、黔源电力(002039)、明星电力(600101)等公司人力成本压缩幅度较大。其中,豫能控股(001896)支付给职工的现金比2007年同期大幅减少了九成多。去年中报支付给职工现金为0.26亿元,今年急剧下降到0.01亿元。公司大量压缩人工成本,却没有带来利润的大幅增长。豫能控股2008年上半年实现净利润-1388872万元,比去年同期减少323.74%。
  去年,豫能控股的员工工资还与前年基本持平。年报显示,2007年,豫能控股为职工支付的现金为0.43亿元,比2006年的0.46亿元略有下降。而按公司2007年上半年中报批露的支付给职工以及为职工支付的现金以及1159位员工人数计算,2007年公司员工上半年平均工资还有22192.06元,平均一个月也有3698元。
  豫能控股董秘办工作人员透露,公司并没有裁员,以后会不会裁员不好说,工资是与效益挂钩的,上半年亏损那么多,工资当然低了。公司主营能否改善,最终还要看国家的电力政策。
  假如豫能控股在今年上半年没有大幅度裁员,其2007年年报批露的员工人数为1159人,以此基数计算,员工半年平均工资只有1216元,平均每月才200多元。
  通宝能源今年上半年支付给职工现金0.27亿元,大大低于去年同期的0.59亿元。通宝能源证券代表表示,公司并没有裁员,也没有降薪,不知道什么原因。如果公司没有裁员的话,员工工资相当于打了五折。而年报显示,去年全年通宝能源支付给职工现金1.20亿元,仅比2006年的1.29亿元略有下降。
  上海电力(600021)董秘办工作人员介绍,电力企业工资总支出微调是正常的,今年煤价疯涨,而电价上调是滞后的,电力企业完全处于被动挨打的局面。今年中报显示,上海电力上半年支付给职工现金3.88亿元,低于去年同期的4.17亿元。上述人员透露,考虑到人员退休等自然流动的原因,工资支出变动幅度在正常范围。估计未来公司的人力成本很难继续下调,现在基本都降到底了。但是成本方面的经营压力依然存在。

券商:降薪裁员过冬
  每次熊市轮回,券商都会裁员、降薪,以图度过寒冬。
  根据Wind数据,8月份沪深两市股票基金权证成交额为1.55万亿元,同比下降76%,环比下降43%,再次创下2007年以来新低。同时按照沪深两市股票交易总量1.18万亿元计算,8月股票的日均交易额已降至560亿元。
  市场低迷,券商员工再也无法继续体会前两年牛市阳光灿烂的日子。“最悲观的情况可能是,2008年剩余的交易日的日均成交额为566亿元,折合2008年全年日均成交额1029亿元。”申银万国最新发布的证券行业研究报告中如是表述。照此推算,2008年下半年沪深两市的日均交易量将降至660亿元,这一数字将较上半年1330亿的日均交易量下降50%左右,而券商的经纪业务收入也将随之减半。
“观察近期的市场表现,单日成交量低于400亿的情况时常出现,市场成交量的‘底量’还没有最终确定。最悲观的预计很有可能成为现实。”申银万国经纪业务部总经理张磊表示。
  面对着经纪业务收入可能出现的大幅下滑,券商开始在成本控制上下起工夫。
  今年半年报显示,几家上市券商“应付职工薪酬”一项同比大幅下降。上半年,宏源证券应付职工薪酬0.09亿元,远低于去年同期的1.97亿元;中信证券该项指标由48.48亿元,降低到45.52亿元;国金证券由1.39亿元下降到0.44亿元;海通证券由5.96亿元下降到2.85亿元;太平洋由0.47亿元下降到0.18亿元;东北证券由1.63亿元下降到0.83亿元;国元证券由2.56亿元下降到1.05亿元;长江证券由4.97亿元下降到3.70亿元。
  据《南方都市报》报道,据深圳一家券商营业部有关负责人调查,深圳很多小券商营业部已开始大面积亏损。大券商刚搬迁的营业部,也出现当月亏损。为应对惨淡行情,深圳的证券经纪人或被裁员或自动转行。“深圳高峰时经纪人有1万多人,现在有五六千就不错了,应该流失了一半多。”深圳某知名券商负责人介绍说。

机械制造:一成多企业降薪
  今年上半年,机械制造企业也开始压缩人力成本。今年中报显示,276家机械制造企业中,有38家“支付给职工以及为职工支付的现金”出现下调,从比例看,有13.77%的企业出现下调。
  其中,S*ST长岭(000561)支付给职工的现金为0.04亿元,低于去年同期的0.16亿元,同比下降77.06%;东方银星(600753)由去年同期的0.026亿元下降到0.008亿元,同比下降67.57%;*ST昌河(600372)由0.89亿元下降到0.39亿元,同比下降56.72%;*ST兰宝(000631)由0.0008亿元下降到0.0004亿元,同比下降50%。
  今年中报显示,中船股份为职工支付的现金略有下降,由0.34亿元下降到0.33亿元。中船股份(600072)证券事务代表透露,公司目前员工人数在增加,薪水也在增加,支付给职工的现金低于去年同期,主要是因为中报截止到6月30日,可是6月份的奖金要到7月份才能发放。对于有人担心造船业遭遇拐点的问题,他提醒投资者造船业确实是周期性很强的行业,但目前还看不到拐点迹象。现在公司主要受世界经济形势和汇率政策的影响,对于铁矿石涨价等成本上升问题,公司是可以转嫁的。
  中捷股份(002021)上半年支付给职工的现金为0.21亿元,低于去年同期的0.25亿元。中捷股份董秘办工作人员称,公司并没有裁员,也没有降薪,只是有些岗位方面的调动。但2007年年报显示,中捷股份去年职工工资支出达到0.52亿元,高于2006年0.39亿元。
  今年上半年,同处机械板块的中路股份为职工支付现金0.37亿元,略低于去年同期的0.40亿元。中路股份的证券代表表示,波动很小很正常,公司经营方面一切正常,行业也没有什么变化,“大盘涨到6000这个行业没那么好,跌到2000也没有那么糟。”

能源:中石油上演“裁员秀”
  能源类的垄断型企业,一直以高工资遭人诟病。
  今年中报显示,有6家能源类公司“支付给职工以及为职工支付的现金”出现下降。根据“集团计划在未来3年内削减5%的员工总量”的说法,有媒体以中国石油(601857)员工总数167万为基数,按5%的比例测算得出裁员8万人。
  有媒体估计,按照5%比例缩减员工计算,大约可以节约78亿元开支。去年9月29日,中石油集团副总经理廖永远在内部会议上表示,大家总以为油价很高,中国石油效益很好,事实并非如此。前几年计算的结果,油价超过40美元,每增加1美元,集团公司多增加56亿元人民币的利润,在当时状况下,油价在60美元以上,每增加1美元,就会亏损11.29亿人民币。
  在中国石油被曝将裁员8万人后,中石油集团一位高层对上海证券报澄清了此事。他表示,“裁员”这一说法并不够确切,8万人的数字也只是媒体的推测,并非真实数据。
  中石油集团一位高层表示,本次裁员集团是为应对经营困难,从优化劳动结构、提高劳动生产率角度出发采取的各项举措之一。“蒋总当时并未提及裁员,只是说要压缩人员,这其中包括几个途径:一是正常退休,每年中石油都会有陆陆续续到年龄的人员要退休;二是通过劳动优化组合实现人员精简;三是按照事业发展规划原本应该增加一部分人员,但现在不增了,这也等于压缩了人员总量;最后,采用新技术装备后也可减少一些用工岗位。”
  事实上,今年上半年,中石油为职工支付的现金为340.35亿元,大大超过去年同期的212亿元。
  一些能源类的小公司倒是下调了为职工支付的现金。今年上半年,美锦能源(000723)为职工支付现金0.05亿元,低于去年同期的0.08亿元;恒源煤电(600971)支付1.98亿元,低于去年同期的2.27亿元。美锦能源董秘办工作人员表示,公司现在既没裁员也没降薪,经营上主要受宏观调控影响,如果国际国内经济形势继续恶化,那只能减产。
  虽然嘴上不承认裁员降薪,可事实上,美锦能源从去年就开始下调人力成本支出。去年为职工支付的现金为0.12亿元,大大低于2006年的0.39亿元。
  恒源煤电证券代表对理财一周报表示,公司没有裁员和降薪行为,公司主要生产电煤,目前电煤价格还能维持高位,像大家比较担心的精煤价格下调的风险与公司没有关系。恒源煤电同样嘴上不承认裁员降薪,但查阅去年年报可以发现,去年该公司为职工支付的现金为4.65亿元,大大高于2006年3.32亿元。今年上半年显著回落到1.98亿元。

纺织:内外交困近四成企业降薪
  “上半年纺织服装行业出口、投资增速持续放缓,国内消费停滞不前,拉动行业发展的三驾马车集体放缓。对纺织服装业来说,是内外交困的上半年。”安信证券研究员赵梅岭表示。
  为了压缩经营成本,众多纺织企业选择了降薪、裁员。今年中报显示,沪深两市80家纺织企业中,有30家“支付给职工以及为职工支付的现金”同比下降,员工工资下降的企业占纺织企业比重为37.5%。
其中,ST中冠A(000018)由去年同期的0.25亿元,下降到今年的0.02亿元,降幅达到90.86%;华联控股(000036)由去年同期的0.37亿元,下降到今年的0.13亿元,下降幅度为65.97%;东方市场(000301)由去年同期的0.62亿元,下降到今年的0.26亿元,下降幅度为58.03%;华升股份(600156)由0.72亿元下降到0.32亿元,下降幅度为55.55%。
  纺织板块企业支付给职工的现金的下降幅度,远超其他板块。按照去年年报,ST中冠A仅有员工36人,人均半年收入5.56万元;华联控股职工1265人,人均半年收入1.03万元;东方市场职工总数为5099人,人均半年收入1.22万元。
  海欣股份(600851)董秘办的工作人员称,公司员工是少了些,但个人待遇还有所提高。纺织业受宏观调控影响,成本压力确实比较大,包括原料煤炭、电力等价格的上涨,还包括银行利息等财务方面的压力,在整个偏紧的环境下,公司只能压缩自身成本。公司可能还会继续压缩人员,但并不会大幅度裁员,只是优化组合,让合适的人在合适的位置上,提高效率。今年中报显示,海欣股份今年上半年支付给职工现金0.99亿元,仅比去年同期的0.98亿元略低。
  上海三毛(600689)证券代表对理财一周报表示,公司并没有裁员,如果有这类动作会公告的。今年中报显示,上海三毛上半年支付给职工现金为0.43亿元,比去年同期0.58亿元大幅下降。年报显示,去年上海三毛为职工支付的现金为0.96亿元,还大大高于2006年的0.63亿元。
  赵梅岭分析,下半年,影响纺织业发展的外围市场环境不会明显改善,人民币持续升值的趋势转变的可能性较小,行业出口环境可能较上半年更为严峻,出口增速将进一步下滑。尽管国家近期出台的出口退税率上调政策以及银行信贷向中小企业倾斜的政策对行业产生短期政策性利好,但行业实质性获利较小,纺织行业在人民币升值背景下必然要经历较长时间的调整,才能实现真正的产业升级,下半年行业依然将处于痛苦的调整期。

异域数字
  美国:
  前7个月失业人数新增110万
  据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)8月22日公布月度数据显示,7月份,美国公司因季节性调整进行的大规模裁员达到1512次,裁员人数估值为15.1171万人,虽较6月相比减少131人,但仍创下2003年以来最高值。美国劳工统计局界定的大规模裁员是指一次性裁员数量达到50人或50人以上。
  2008年前7个月,美国企业累计裁员次数达到10770次,初次申请失业救济人数超过110万人。
  英国:
  7月新增失业人数为16年来最多
  据英国国家统计局8月13日公布的数据,7月英国申请失业救济人数为84.67万人,环比增加2.01万人,创1992年来最大月度增幅。
  7月英国失业人数已连续第六个月增加,失业率升至2.7%,高于6月的2.6%。分析人士称,失业人数增加说明英国劳动力市场持续恶化,这是英国经济进一步减速的信号。经济学家预计,未来几个月随着英国经济减速和新毕业大学生开始找工作,英国失业率还将继续上升。
  德国:
  商业银行计划裁员9000人
  据新华社9月2日消息,德国商业银行首席财务官艾瑞克·施特鲁茨1日表示,该银行计划在收购德累斯顿银行之后裁员9000人。数据显示,自去年信贷危机爆发以来,全球银行与金融机构的裁员数量已超过10.3万人。
  巴基斯坦:
  汽车业15万人失业
  根据在线国际商报驻巴基斯坦使馆经商处消息,因钢材和能源价格高涨,汽车生产成本大幅上升,巴基斯坦汽车业陷入困境,导致15万人失业,汽车零配件厂商产能利用率仅为40%。同时,摩托车生产商也面临同样的困境。
  来源:理财一周





  
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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby Niczach » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:32 pm

唱多A股 大忽悠龚方雄暗地打起小算盘

每经记者 李文艺 魏玉卿
  今年股市中谁最会忽悠?龚方雄莫属!
  8月19日,摩根大通首席中国经济师龚方雄称,中国政府正考虑一项2000亿至4000亿的经济刺激方案。受此影响,8月20日沪指暴涨178点。但随后大盘一路走低,龚也被各方质疑。
  从今年2月至今,龚方雄多次发表看多言论。日前,正在“休假”中的龚方雄又表示,虽然市场忧虑中国企业下半年的盈利前景,但通胀已趋温和,中国政府将推出财政和货币政策,减少企业盈利的下跌风险。
  事与愿违,昨日上证指数盘中跌破2245点,最终报收于2203.15点,标志着股改牛市已被彻底推翻。这给了以龚方雄为代表的纷纷唱多的外资投行一记响亮耳光。

四次标志性忽悠 被套资金超万亿
  今年1月中旬开始,大盘进入新一轮下跌行情。作为摩根大通首席中国经济学家,龚方雄总是在市场“最黑暗”,“信心最低落”的时候,站在“权威”的立场发表言论:“A股估值已合理”,“最困难的时候已过去”。在他的催眠声中,投资者“前仆后继”,以为自己抓住了熊市的尾巴,短暂的反弹后,却又要面对更为残酷的现实。
  纵观龚方雄自今年2月以来最具代表性的4次忽悠,由自信满满,到不确定,再到最后的“疯狂一博”,始终有人相信他的观点,始终有人成为被忽悠的对象。

  1.信心满满2月18日 A股估值已合理
  今年2月18日,大盘运行在4500点左右。龚方雄在某知名财经杂志上发表了一篇题为 “保持防御态势继续持有中国股票”的文章。文章主要观点是,未来几个月内,市场信心正在恢复,股票估值也已趋近合理。龚方雄认为投资者应保持防御态势,并继续持有中国股票,电信运营商仍然是近期最抗跌的板块。
  市场表现:2月18日、19日,沪指连续两日分别上涨71点、96点;深成指分别上涨364点、421点。2月20日开始,沪指连续4个交易日大幅下挫,深成指连续5个交易日大幅下挫。新一轮跌势袭来,直到4月下旬,大盘跌至3200点附近。
  忽悠结果:2月18日、19日两市总成交2993亿元,随后的连续大跌中,沪市成交也维持在1000亿元左右,粗略计算,从4500点至3200点,这2993亿资金缩水28%。原本以为“估值已合理”的投资者怎么也不会想到,市场还有更低的估值。

  2.不太确定4月14日 最坏阶段或已过去
  4月14日,大盘运行在接近3300点位置。龚方雄又在某知名财经杂志上发表名为 “最坏阶段或已过去”的文章。从“或已”两字可以看出,经过上次的预言失败,龚方雄对自己的观点有些不确定了。尽管如此,他仍在文章中言之凿凿地表示,虽然不排除股市再次探底的可能性,但最糟糕的下跌过程可能已经结束。未来6~12个月内,投资者增持易受国内固定资产投资影响的股票类型尤佳。
  市场表现:4月21日开始,至5月5日,大盘进入一波反弹行情,从3000点反弹至3700点左右。随后经过长达一个月的阴跌,6月2日开始,股市再次“决堤”,一路下滑至7月中旬的2800点。
忽悠结果:初步计算,在本次700点的反弹行情中,两市成交有超过1万亿,即使以3300点为基数,截至7月中旬的2800点,该部分资金也缩水15%。事实证明,最坏的时候并没有过去。

  3.坚持看多7月19日 A股已经在底部

  7月19日,大盘运行在近2800点位置。龚方雄在第七届中国证券投资基金国际论坛半年峰会上称,最困难的时候可能已经在上半年过去,现在的主要精力要放在防止经济下滑,宏观调控应该放松,可能年底就会出现松动。同时还表示,A股已经在底部,再下行的风险不大,能不能强力反弹取决于油价的大幅下跌和通胀的减速。这两个因素都已出现,这一波反弹至少能维持到年底。
  市场表现:7月21日,沪指上涨83点,随后几日出现一个100点左右的小反弹。7月28日之后,大盘又开始深幅下探。
  忽悠结果:粗略计算,在大盘2900点附近,两市总成交超过3000亿元,截至8月20日最大“忽悠”出现之前,该部分资金缩水20%。最困难并未过去,在2900点被忽悠进场的投资者还将面临新的困难。

  4.疯狂一博8月19日 千亿经济刺激方案
  看着自己的“言论”屡屡落空,龚方雄不得不采取极端手法。8月19日,龚方雄在写给摩根大通客户的报告中称,中国政府领导层正考虑一项总金额至少2000亿至4000亿人民币的经济刺激方案,包括减税、稳定国内资本市场和支持国内房地产市场的健康发展等。而2000亿至4000亿人民币的规模,相当于中国GDP的1%至1.5%。
  该报告内容迅速被各大财经网站转载,令憧憬政府救市已久的A股市场出现井喷式反弹。8月20日,沪指暴涨178.81点,当日成交609亿元,相对前期300亿左右的成交量,陡然增加1倍;深成指暴涨567点,当日成交269亿元。随后,龚方雄开始休假。然而,Topview数据显示,8月20日当天,机构净卖出46.89亿,机构当日持仓比例下降了0.1%,8月21日,机构继续净卖出6.2亿。龚自说自唱的“刺激方案”竟然成为机构出货的掩护,这是巧合还是故意?  市场表现:8月20日狂欢过后,深成指收出6连阴,沪指也在涨涨跌跌中不断下滑,本周一又突然大跌,且以基金重仓股的下跌为主。昨日,大盘开盘跌破2245点,甚至一度刺穿2200点。
  忽悠结果:这是龚在连续唱多半年以来,市场反应最为强烈的一次,也是被“忽悠”人数最多,损失最惨重的一次。8月20日当天,两市总成交569亿元,截止到昨日,短短12个交易日,该部分资金急剧缩水12%。听信龚方雄报告的大部分投资者在大盘已跌至低点的情况下,又一次受到沉重打击。

  唱空为抄底唱多好出货 外资投行报告藏玄机
  再看龚方雄这份激起 “一日行情千层浪”的报告,我们不得不思考为何国际投行一声吼,股指就向上蹿?“天下熙熙皆为利来,天下攘攘皆为利往。外资投行不管是唱多还是唱空,都离不开这个目的。”一专家对记者说道。
年初以来,伴随着股市一路下跌,外资投行时常异口同声地唱空A股市场,“大幅唱空A股,他们的目的就是为了抄底。”上述专家表示。而从4月份起,汇丰银行、花旗银行及高盛等从唱空相继转向高调唱多A股后,境外投行开始集体改口唱多。据相关数据显示,4月份QFII资金净流入达200亿元左右,而4月底在出台降低印花税的利好刺激上,股市出现了一波大反弹,但是随后市场的进一步暴跌,这些妄想抄底的QFII也可谓是“出师未捷”。
  在8月龚方雄发布报告后,雷曼兄弟中国区高级经济学家孙明春也出来对政策做了一份预测,称在接下来的几个星期到几个月的时间里,政府可能采取的政策选项多达12项,首先政府或将更进一步放松价格控制,其次某些部门将享受进一步的出口退税政策。在股票市场上,期待已久的股指期货交易或将出台,并放缓或冻结IPO和股票发行。目前0.1%的股票交易印花税也可能会进一步下调,甚至完全取消。
  另外,美林、标准普尔两家国外知名投行也发布了最新报告,预计中国政府将在奥运后采取措施,保证国内经济持续增长,并且极力看好奥运后中国A股的投资机会。
  一位不愿具名的国内投行人士告诉记者:“境外投行对A股十分热衷,如果不是潜藏的利益因素,这很难解释其如此热心。为实现自身利益的最大化,外资将投行信息发布作为主要平台,通过其对市场的影响力来进行有针对性的博弈。”
  他还表示,国内投资者不要以为外资投行都是讲诚信的,实际上看多看空言论都是受利益驱使。外资投行拥有强大国际影响力和对市场的操纵力,他们的预测和判断更容易受到普通投资者的关注,言论又常常会被市场放大,成为影响投资者操作的重要心理暗示力量。
  著名财经评论家侯宁表示,从近期的一些数据可以看到,QFII的资金都是在股市中呈现净流入,足以证明大量的境外资本受到利益的诱惑而来。跨国金融机构的实质是以经济利益最大化为目标,在他们频频唱多或者唱空的背后,都有自己的小算盘,不排除借机获利的可能。像龚方雄的那篇唱多言论,很明显就是在助机构拉高出货。对此,国内投资者应该保持清醒认识,不要过多的迷信。
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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby blid2def » Sun Sep 07, 2008 12:59 am

Nic, can you post the URLs for the Chinese articles, if available? That'll make it easier for those members who require English translations. :)
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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby Niczach » Sun Sep 07, 2008 8:38 am

it's this Boss :)

六大行业裁员降薪调查: 电力最惨员工月薪两百
http://translate.google.com.sg/translat ... SG242SG242

唱多A股 大忽悠龚方雄暗地打起小算盘
http://translate.google.com.sg/translat ... 2%26sa%3DG
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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Sun Sep 07, 2008 12:12 pm

Very interesting article in this weeks Economist on China labor supply...

This has a potential to impact/disrupt China's ability to attract FDI and hold down worldwide inflation (by holding down cost of goods). China's ability to hold down inflation(ex food/energy) was expounded by Greenspan many years ago thro' the supply of cheap labor and productivity gains.

Reserve army of underemployed
Sep 4th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Is China’s pool of surplus labour drying up?

WHAT is the single most important price in the world? Popular answers are the price of oil, American interest rates or the dollar. Yet Chinese wages are, arguably, more important. China has by far the world’s biggest labour force, of around 800m—almost twice that of America, the European Union and Japan combined. Thus recent claims that it is running short of cheap labour would, if true, have huge consequences not just for China, but also for the rest of the world.

A seemingly unlimited supply of cheap workers has been one of the main forces behind China’s rapid economic growth. But over the past couple of years, factory owners have complained of labour shortages and wages have risen more rapidly, leading some to conclude that China’s “surplus” labour has been used up. The country’s one-child policy, introduced in 1979, has caused the growth in its labour supply to slow sharply (see chart). After rising by 1.3% a year during the decade to 2005, the population of working age is expected to increase at an annual rate of 0.7% until 2015, and then shrink by 0.1% a year until 2025. At the same time, the shift of workers from agriculture to industry, which has been an important source of productivity gains, will also slow. Jonathan Anderson, an economist at UBS, reckons that these two trends will reduce China’s sustainable growth rate from 9-9.5% today to 7-7.5% by 2025.

But as well as boosting growth, the flow of workers from farms to factories has held down manufacturing wages—not only in China, but also throughout the world. The theory behind this was first expounded by Sir Arthur Lewis, an economist from St Lucia, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 1979. He argued that a developing country with “surplus” (ie, underemployed) rural labour could expand industrial employment for many years without causing wage inflation, because employers enjoy such a large supply of labour. During the first 50 years of Britain’s industrial revolution, real wages remained more or less flat while profits soared. Likewise in China, as millions of migrants have quit the countryside for urban factories and construction sites, the real wages of low-skilled workers barely rose during the 1980s and 1990s, despite big productivity gains; only recently have they increased rapidly.

This acceleration of wages has prompted some to conclude that China’s surplus labour in the countryside has been used up. Last year Cai Fang, the director of the Institute of Population and Labour Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argued that China has reached the “Lewis turning point”. By 2009, he predicted, there would be a widespread shortage of workers, pushing up industrial wages. Does this mean the death of China’s growth model?

As so often in China, this debate is clouded by the poor data. Until recently, most estimates of surplus labour varied between 150m and 200m people. But the true figure is probably much smaller, because government figures for the rural labour force include millions of migrants who have already moved to cities and others who work in rural industry, not farming.

In addition the population is ageing: the number of workers aged between 20 and 29 fell from 233m in 1990 to 165m in 2005. Many textile and electronics firms hire only young women in their 20s, as they are thought to be less troublesome and more willing to work long hours. Construction firms favour young single men. Older people are not only less employable, but they are also typically less willing to migrate if they have children. After taking account of this, Mr Cai estimates that China’s surplus labour has been virtually exhausted.

But Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, thinks that talk of China’s vanishing labour surplus is premature. In a report this year he argued that the surplus would not run out for another decade. Although the number aged between 20 and 29 fell over the past decade, their ranks are now rising again. Using the 2005 census, Mr Green estimates that the 20-something group will increase by a third in the ten years to 2015, as baby-boomers’ children join the workforce (see right-hand chart); only then will it start shrinking sharply.

What is more, the recent spurt in urban wages is not necessarily proof that the surplus has gone. Mr Green argues that to attract migrant workers, urban employers have to pay more than rural income, which has increased in recent years, thanks to government policies and higher food prices. The temporary increase in the age group between 20 and 29 over the next few years will also ease the upward pressure on urban pay.

Go East, young women
The World Bank agrees that China’s labour surplus has not yet run out. Even when the number of young people drops, the labour supply is determined by more than demographics. Migrant workers are usually excluded from urban social-security schemes and have to pay more for education and health care. The bank suggests that phasing out the household-registration system would encourage more people to move to the city. Vocational training for rural residents aged over 30 would equip them better for jobs in industry. And financial incentives to encourage workers to retire later could also boost the labour supply: only 60% of men and 30% of women aged over 50 have jobs.

Moreover, Mr Cai’s estimate of China’s labour surplus assumes that 180m workers, or 24% of total employment, are needed for farming. But that is based on today’s agriculture. Mechanisation and the consolidation of land plots will boost productivity, meaning that fewer farmers will be needed. That will in turn release more workers for industry. In developed countries only 3% of workers till the land.

China’s surplus labour will eventually dry up, but it still seems some years away. In any case, that moment should be cause for cheer not fear in China and elsewhere, because it will lead to bigger gains in income and consumption. That, after all, is the whole point of development.
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby blid2def » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:20 am

Niczach wrote:it's this Boss :)

六大行业裁员降薪调查: 电力最惨员工月薪两百
http://translate.google.com.sg/translat ... SG242SG242

唱多A股 大忽悠龚方雄暗地打起小算盘
http://translate.google.com.sg/translat ... 2%26sa%3DG


Thanks, Nic. Man, the translation sucks! Hahahaha.... anyway, thanks for this. In future, please post the original URLs, so that folks can choose to use their own translation engines. Thanks for this though. :)
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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:25 pm

Luxury items taking a hit?? Maybe every1 watching Olympcis??

Falling Chinese car sales concern US producers

By Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai
Published: September 8 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 8 2008 03:00

Growth in the Chinese auto market has slowed more rapidly than expected in recent months and preliminary data suggests August car sales have fallen by as much as 10 per cent year on year.

Signs of a worse-thanexpected slowdown in the Chinese car market come at a time when General Motors and other troubled carmakers are counting on growth in China to cushion the effect of problems in the US market.

Rick Wagoner, GM chairman and chief executive, told the Financial Times last month that he expected emerging markets to contribute 80 per cent of global car industry growth in the next five years, and he was particularly optimistic about China, GM's second-largest market.

Lehman Brothers said in a research report last week that passenger car sales in China fell 10 per cent year-on-year last month because the Beijing Olympics and weakening consumer confidence kept buyers out of car showrooms.

JD Power, the auto consultancy, said 80 per cent of Chinese auto dealers whom it surveyed said that sales had fallen in the three months to August over the previous quarter. This would be the first time sales have fallen on a monthly basis since 2005.

John Bonnell, chief China forecaster for JD Power, said it was too early to predict the magnitude of the August slowdown until official figures were released next week.

However, he added, "any kind of a contraction would be a surprise". It was still unclear whether a possible slowdown would be just the temporary effect of the Olympics.

"Is the whole thing slowing down, or are people only taking a pause to go to the Olympics?"

JD Power cut its forecast for 2008 sales growth to 10 per cent after several years of double-digit growth. But Mr Bonnell said there was a chance that 2008 would see little or no growth in Chinese auto sales.

Baosteel, the Chinese steelmaker, has cited weakness in the Chinese auto sector as one of the main factors behind a recent drop in steel demand. Baosteel said auto sales might recover in the fourth quarter, for seasonal reasons. - contributing to falling BDI???

Lehman Brothers said it expected a "reasonable demand recovery in September and October", but it predicted that auto sales would remain "lacklustre for the rest of 2008 and possible early 2009".
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Tue Sep 09, 2008 8:47 am

Economy looking good, says Wang
Katherine Ng

China's economy is in good shape and on course for continuous and steady growth despite the impact of negative external factors, Vice Premier Wang Qishan said yesterday.

"Inflation is controllable and domestic demand is strong," Wang told a conference in Xiamen.

Wang said Beijing has taken "timely measures" and the economy is responding, and he is confident China can sustain stable growth and tame inflation.

Reining in the overheating economy has become the Communist Party politburo's priority since the second quarter this year, and it has shifted macroecomic policy from focusing on curbing inflation.

The National Bureau of Statistics yesterday said August macro data would be released tomorrow, one day ahead of schedule.

The cost of food has declined since April, following record consumer price inflation of 8.3 percent in February, and inflation is expected to decline in line with market consensus. Consumer price increases are expected to have slowed significantly to between 5.2 percent and 5.4 percent from 6.3 percent in July.

The producer price index, a barometer measuring upstream inflation, will also soften to 9.8 percent, economists say.

Wang said slowing external demand, higher energy prices and natural disasters created pressure, but fine-tuned policies are working.

Deutsche Bank's China chief economist Ma Jun said CPI and PPI will trend downward to 5.5 percent and 9 percent by the end of this year. "The easing of inflationary pressure will help the government adopt a more relaxed monetary policy especially in lending allowances," he said. "However, fiscal policy such as tax cuts and increases in spending will only be due next year."

There will be a subtle shift in policy focus, said Lehman Brothers China economist Sun Mingchun, including a possible lending quota cut of 5 percent to 10 percent.
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Re: China - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:04 am

August CPI up 4.9pc on yr, PPI up 10.1pc

China's annual consumer price inflation fell to a 14-month low of 4.9 percent in August from 6.3 percent in July as the pace of food price increases continued to slow.

The fourth consecutive monthly drop in CPI inflation, now well below February's peak of 8.7 percent, will come as a relief to policy makers, but wholesale price inflation in August rose to 10.1 percent, the loftiest level since the mid-1990s.

Food CPI rose 10.3 percent versus 14.4 percent in July while Non-food CPI gained 2.1 percent compared to 2.1 percent in the previous months.

REUTERS
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