China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:30 am

Forget Slowdown, China Already 'Re-accelerating': Economist By: Jean Chua

China's economy is accelerating again and inflation will tick up by the second half of the year after bottoming out in February, according to David Carbon, Managing Director of Economics and Currencies at DBS Bank.

"We look at the numbers and China gave us a touch and go three, four months ago, so it's no longer a question of hard or soft landing," Carbon told CNBC on Monday. "China has already taken off again, as has most of Asia."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46990157
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 10, 2012 12:09 pm

Higher than expected CPI

A sh investors went back to bearish mode after one day rally last week. Higher than expected Mar CPI was the trigger.

Lower than expected earnings for 1Q12 also clouded the prespect of a sustainable rally.

Large fund raisings are going quitely behind the background through private placements and rights offerings instead of more visible IPOs, sucking up precious liquidity from cash-rich large institutional invstors.

Turnover shrank back to US$17 bn, indicating many people are sidelined.

Looking forward, we could see a positive Mar new loan number on Apr 13th as consensus moves above our estimate of Rmb930 bn (some even calling Rmb1 tr).

Our China Economist Yu Song believes the CPI remains on the down-trend (Mar 3.6% vs. Jan-Feb avg 3.9%) so the direction of policy easing has not change, but the pace may be slowed


Source: GS
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 10, 2012 12:27 pm

China court jails disabled activist and husband by Robert Saiget

A Chinese court sentenced disabled activist Ni Yulan and her husband to jail on Tuesday, a year after the couple were detained during a widespread crackdown on dissent in China.

Ni, who has used a wheelchair since 2002, was sentenced to two years and eight months on separate charges of fraud and "picking quarrels, provoking trouble and wilfully destroying private and public property".

Her husband Dong Jiqin was jailed for two years on the latter charge, a court spokesman told gathered media and foreign diplomats outside the Beijing courthouse, where around 100 police officers were deployed.

"This is completely unfair, I urge the government to release my parents," the couple's daughter Dong Xuan told AFP after the verdict and sentencing.

"Both my parents looked very thin. I was unable to see my mother's face, she didn't turn around. She was in a wheelchair and looked very weak. My father saw me and asked me how I was. He told me that he was ok."

Ni and Dong, who have long helped victims of government-backed land grabs in China, were detained in April last year as authorities rounded up scores of activists amid online calls for protests similar to those in the Arab world.

They were tried in December in a four-hour hearing that was closed to the press and diplomats who tried to enter the courthouse. Their lawyers say the charges were trumped up to silence them.

Ni spent much of the trial lying on a bed in the courtroom due to her poor health. She remains ill and is suffering from fever, a swollen neck and has trouble speaking.

The European Union said in a statement it was "deeply concerned" over the sentence handed down and called for Ni's immediate release.

Trained as a lawyer, Ni, 51, was sentenced to a year in jail in 2002 for "obstructing official business" and for two years in 2008 for "harming public property" -- charges brought against her as she tried to protect her home.

Amnesty International has said her knee caps and feet were broken when she was detained in 2002, and she has been confined to a wheelchair ever since.

She was also disbarred in 2002.

Her case has been championed by numerous Western governments, including the United States and the European Union, which sent representatives to meet with her during her brief period of freedom in 2010.

In January, police barred Ni's daughter Dong Xuan from leaving China to collect a 100,000-euro ($131,000) human rights award for her mother in the Netherlands.


Source:AFP Global Edition

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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:13 am

Beijing is expected to post first-quarter GDP figures on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast GDP to grow 8.3 percent from a year earlier, extending China's worst run of quarterly sequential slowing since the 2008/09 crisis.

This could delay any expected pick-up in earnings growth beyond the first quarter, with the upcoming quarterly corporate earnings season starting next week expected to extend weakness from last year.

Source: Reuters
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:22 am

Forget China GDP, Other Indicators Paint Bearish Picture By: Jean Chua

Markets may be fixated on China's widely-anticipated growth data due on Friday, but some analysts tell CNBC investors should look beyond the figures and focus on several other indicators which, they say, paint a more dire picture of the economy.

According to Paul Gambles, managing partner at MBMG, China's gross domestic product (GDP) data — widely regarded as a barometer of the country's economic health — are among the "less reliable" figures from the government.

"We tend to take the view that the least reliable statistics that come out of China are perhaps the GDP numbers, the unemployment numbers and the CPI numbers," Gambles told CNBC on Wednesday. Instead, investors should place more importance on data like energy usage, new car sales external Purchasing Managers' Index, which he said pointed to a less robust Chinese economy.

Earlier this week, David Carbon, Managing Director of Economics and Currencies at DBS Bank, told CNBC that China's economy is accelerating again, basing his argument on the latest inflation data, which came in at a higher-than-expected 3.6 percent in March.

But Gordon Chang, author of the book "The Coming Collapse of China", argued that inflation in China is under-reported, and has in fact fallen in recent months.

"I think one of the big stories is that the rate of inflation has obviously come down very, very quickly over the last three or four months, which shows a deterioration in the economy," Chang said.

"When you put that together with the bad electricity production statistics, bellwether car sales, new lending, all of those numbers point to either a contraction or essentially an economy growing at 3 to 4 percent."

Chang added that China can’t be growing at 8.4 percent in the first quarter — as forecasted last week by Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of China's National Development and Reform Commission.

"China's not going to grow at 8.4 percent. It grew in low-single digits in January and February, if you combine those two months, from any number of official statistics that the government issued. You'd have to have incredible growth in March, just to average out at 8.4," Chang said.

He also pointed to a contraction of the country's manufacturing sector, as reflected in the latest HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading.

The HSBC private survey of smaller factories released earlier this month showed a reading of 48.3 in March, declining from February's 49.6, largely in line with a preliminary PMI reading of 48.1. The figures seem to contradict the official PMI, which jumped to an 11-month high of 53.1 in March, up from February's reading of 51.

Chang however cautioned against reading too much into the official figure, which measures the activity of large factories.

"It's an official number and that number doesn't correlate with anything that we know either about the January and February period or March," he said. "And when you look at the HSBC number, it's much more consistent with the data that we know."

Gambles added that the official PMI seemed weak given the strong factory activity expected after the Lunar New Year holidays.

"Following Chinese New Year, you always expect a strong bounce in PMI and actually the bounce in PMI wasn't so great even on the official numbers. Something like 56 would be more in line with the post-Chinese New Year PMI, so I think the problems are still there."

Their views are far more bearish than those of majority market watchers, who expect China’s full-year growth to exceed the 7.5 percent forecast by the Chinese government. Both Song Seng Wun, Regional Economist at CIMB Research, and Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs, told CNBC earlier this week that China's economy could expand as much as 9 percent this year.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47012033
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:13 pm

China deletes 210,000 online posts 'to halt rumours'

China has closed 42 websites and deleted more than 210,000 online posts since March in a crackdown on "Internet-based rumours", state media said Thursday, amid a major political scandal.

The news, announced by the official Xinhua news agency in a brief report, comes as China is rocked by its biggest political crisis in decades with the purge of a top leader and the detention of his wife on suspicion of murder.

Source:AFP Global Edition
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:07 pm

贵州山区学生的“露天厨房
http://www.tudou.com/playlist/p/l153231 ... 0_06_02_99
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Sat Apr 14, 2012 9:23 am

What CLSA’s Andy Rothman Thinks is the Biggest Misunderstanding in China

In our webcast last week on what to expect from China, Andy Rothman from CLSA outlined the major misconceptions about China.

He believes the biggest myth that investors think about China is that its economy is primarily driven by exports.

Using two charts which debunk this misconception, Andy explained that domestic investment and domestic consumption have long been the most significant drivers of China’s economic growth.

While most items we buy in big box stores have a “Made in China” tag stuck to the bottom, it should actually say, “Assembled in China” since China has moved up the manufacturing food chain. Andy uses the distribution value of Apple’s iPad to illustrate this development.

Andy says when an iPad leaves China, it has a factory value of $250. As you can see in the pie chart, the input costs for assembling the iPad in China are only about 2 percent of the value. About the same amount goes to Taiwan (2 percent) and even more of the cost of the iPad goes to South Korea (7 percent) because of the parts made by LG and Samsung which are then shipped to China.

How does this translate to GDP growth for China? If you break down China’s GDP growth year-by-year since 1996, you can see how much of the growth was attributable to net exports of goods and services versus internal consumption.

Andy says, “In the decade before the global financial crisis, China, on average, experienced 10 percent GDP growth, but each year only one percentage point of that 10 percent growth came from net exports.”

On the far right is what CLSA is expecting for GDP growth from China in 2012: “Basically, we're looking for 9 percent GDP in China, about half from investment, half from consumption, with a negative half a percentage point from net exports, because obviously world demand for goods coming from China is a little bit weak.”

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resourc ... lk/?i=8110
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:10 am

'Briton tried to expose Gu's shady deals'

The British businessman whose murder has sparked political upheaval in China was poisoned after he threatened to expose a plan by a Chinese leader's wife to move money abroad.

Source: SCMP
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 07 (Oct 11 - Apr 12)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 17, 2012 2:56 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: BNPP Tips Darkest Hour Before Dawn For China Econ

1437 [Dow Jones] BNP Paribas says the Chinese economy has been in the unusual position of lagging the upturn seen in other parts of Asia, as the 1Q12 GDP release confirmed that the economy started the year badly, with growth coming in at 8.1% on-year, close to BNPP's forecast of 8.2% but below market expectation for 8.4%.

"However, the darkest hour is just before the dawn," the house says, noting other data released recently have been more promising, with the trade deficit bouncing back into surplus in March following February's large deficit, and "there are other signs of life in the economy," such as the OECD's leading indicator for China that has been picking up, as well as the national leading index.

It adds, headline money and credit figures for March were also better than expected, while limited pipeline inflation pressures give the authorities some room for manoeuvre.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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