India 02 (Sep 11 - Oct 15)

India 02 (Sep 11 - Oct 15)

Postby winston » Sat Sep 03, 2011 11:58 am

India's manufacturing growth hits 29-month low by Penny MacRae

India's factory output growth skidded to a 29-month low in August, a widely watched survey showed on Friday, hit by a string of interest rate hikes and a plunge in export orders.

The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, or purchasing managers' index, fell for a fourth straight month to 52.6, a shade below the previous low of 53.2 registered during the global financial crisis in April 2009.

Indian government authorities expect the country to achieve at least eight percent growth, down from 8.5 percent last year, but many private economists see growth in the low seven percent range.

Food inflation is at 10.05 percent year-on-year while overall inflation remains stubbornly over nine percent, the highest among major economies.

There has been "a collapse in export orders," said Credit Suisse economist Devika Mehndiratta.

Release of the index coincided with figures showing foreign funds pulled nearly $1.8 billion from the Indian stock and debt markets in August.

It was the highest monthly withdrawal since October 2008 when investors jumped from risky emerging market assets into government bonds, currency havens and gold.

Source: AFP Asian Edition

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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 04, 2011 4:50 pm

Economic woes could hit Indian festive spending by Salil Panchal

India's retailers look set for a tough annual religious festival season -- traditionally a time for exuberant spending -- as high inflation and interest rates force consumers to tighten their belts.

The season, which began with the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan on August 31, and ends with the Hindu festival of lights, Diwali, in late October, is seen as a lucky time for big purchases from cars and property to gold.

But analysts warn that expenditures could be curtailed this year as the country's economy slows under the brunt of nearly a dozen interest rate hikes in 18 months, aimed at taming nine percent-plus inflation.

"High-value purchases and where borrowed money is involved could slow down," Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist with Barclays Capital, told AFP.

Hemen Kapadia, a Mumbai-based stockbroker, has his heart set on buying the latest Ford Fiesta, which costs nearly one million rupees ($22,000) for a diesel version.

But he said he has postponed the purchase because of India's weakening economic situation, which has sent the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark share index down by more than 20 percent and hit his earnings.

India posted its slowest economic growth in six quarters last week, with output up 7.7 percent year-on-year, as expansion was hit by the longest stretch of monetary tightening in a decade.

"I won't buy the car for another year. It's too costly," Kapadia said.

Indian car sales are viewed as a barometer of the national's overall economic health. Car sales slumped 16 percent year-on-year to 133,747 units in July -- their biggest drop in nearly three years -- as high interest rates and rising fuel prices kept buyers out of showrooms.

"The next wave of buying will come only when incomes rise or consumers find a good deal," said auto analyst Mahantesh Sabarad of Fortune Equity Brokers in Mumbai.

Ajit Joshi, chief executive of Tata Group's Infiniti Retail, which runs the electronics megastore Croma, described the current market as "challenging".

He warned that discounts alone, normally offered during the festival period, would not necessarily boost sales.

But there was one bright prospect in gold, another festive favourite whose purchasing season extends to India's peak wedding period in late December.

"Demand is likely to be fairly good this season," said Rajesh Mehta, chairman of Bangalore-based Rajesh Exports, India's largest jewellery maker and exporter by volume.

"But it would have been much higher if prices were lower," he added.

Last month, gold peaked at $1,913.50 per ounce as global equity markets slumped and investors were spooked by the US sovereign debt downgrade, adding to existing nervousness about Eurozone debt.

Mehta predicted that Indians -- the country is the world's largest consumer and importer of gold -- would follow wider trends to buy jewellery as an investment and safe haven in troubled times.

Source: AFP Asian Edition

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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:39 pm

Indian stocks are the strongest today, up 2.7%.

So what has Greece got to do with Indian stocks ?

European Banks are big lenders in India ?

India exports a lot of stuff to Europe ?

European companies outsourcing a lot of stuff to India ?
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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 11, 2011 8:58 pm

ANOTHER LOOK AT OUR HUGE ASIA TREND

Today's chart shows our big "Asia up, the West not so much" idea is still intact.

To recap, the long-term case for owning Asian assets instead of U.S. and European assets is simple.

Over the past 40 years, the Western world has cooked up an ugly stew of unfunded welfare programs, huge government debts, and populations who've adopted a "something for nothing" way of life. This acts as a headwind on stock, business, and real estate prices.

Asia, on the other hand, isn't burdened with the "welfare state of mind." Most Asians are poor… But they're working and saving like crazy to catch up with the rich Westerners they see on TV and YouTube. This acts as a tailwind for stock, business, and real estate prices.

We've presented this idea in various ways over the years. Today, we're using a "performance chart."

Below is the performance of India's stock index (black line) versus the performance of France's stock index (blue line) over the past three years.

India is up about 70%. France is down about 10%. Asia continues to rise relative to the West.

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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:44 am

The Indian inflation numbers looked more credible than the Chinese's ...

India Inflation Steady At 9.73% In October

(RTTNews) - India's inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, held steady at 9.73 percent in October, data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed Monday.

In September, inflation was at 9.72 percent. Economists expected inflation to eased to 9.66 percent. A year ago, the rate was 9.08 percent.

Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 4.88 percent compared to 4.84 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The price index for primary articles rose 11.4 percent annually, but slower than 11.84 percent increase in the preceding month.

Food prices climbed 11.06 percent compared to 9.23 percent rise in September.

Costs of fuel and power went up 14.79 percent year-on-year, faster than 14.09 percent increase in the previous month.

Source: RTT
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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 25, 2011 5:56 pm

India threw open its $450 billion retail market to global supermarket giants on Thursday, approving its biggest reform in years that may boost sorely needed investment in Asia's third-largest economy.

The world's largest retail group, Wal-Mart Stores Inc <WMT.N>, and its rivals see India's retail sector as one of the last frontier markets, where a burgeoning middle-class still shops at local, family-owned merchants.

Source: Reuters
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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Wed Dec 14, 2011 1:15 pm

India overstated exports by US$9b due to double counting

(NEW DELHI) India's commerce ministry said it overstated merchandise exports by US$9 billion in the eight months through November because of 'misclassification and errors' in computing overseas sales.

'Notwithstanding the misclassification, there were errors in double counting and all sorts of things which inflated exports by about US$9 billion,' Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said on Friday.

Overseas sales in the April-to-November period now stands at US$192.7 billion, Mr Khullar said.

India's monthly export growth has averaged about 44 per cent since April even as Europe's debt crisis and a faltering US recovery reduced global consumer demand, prompting economists to question the quality of the data.

Friday's revision explains 'in part the weakening of the rupee,' Asia's worst-performing currency this year, said Jay Shankar, Mumbai-based economist at Religare Capital Markets Ltd.

'The global economy isn't doing well, so it was hard to understand how India was posting such fantastic export numbers,' said Biswajit Dhar, director of New Delhi-based Research and Information System for Developing Countries. 'There were reasons to believe something was going wrong.'

India's exports in November were US$22.3 billion, Mr Khullar said, without elaborating. Bloomberg calculations based on previously announced data show exports grew 3.7 per cent last month from a year earlier, the slowest pace in more than two years.

India's imports in November were US$35.9 billion, he said. Imports in the eight months through November were US$309.5 billion, causing a trade deficit of US$116.8 billion in the period.

India will get 'close to, but not quite US$300 billion in exports' in the year ending March 31, he said. The nation's export growth has vacillated this year, surging 82 per cent in July before slowing to an 11 per cent gain in October, according to previously reported data by the commerce ministry.

A report by Mumbai-based Kotak Institutional Equities Research in October showed 'wide gaps' in engineering export numbers released by the government and data culled from annual reports of the top 500 companies on India's exchanges for the year ended March 31.

Source: Bloomberg
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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:57 pm

INDIA'S STOCK MARKET DISASTER

While we've highlighted the weakness in China's benchmark stock index… and the weakness in one of its most popular companies (Baidu), we'd be negligent if we didn't add that China isn't the only one struggling…

Stocks in China's fellow "billion people-plus" Asian nation of India are also tanking. As we've mentioned several times in the past, stocks of developing markets like India are good friends to the trader.

They go through huge booms and busts, which can be traded for terrific gains. The key to success here is to buy these assets near black gloom bottoms… and short them near hype-driven tops.

Today's chart shows Indian stocks are busting right now. Our chart displays the past two years of trading in the country's benchmark "Sensex" stock index.

As you can see, the index was clobbered this summer… and then spent the next three months trying to form a bottom. But this month, the bottom fell out… and shares are at fresh two-year lows.

Asia is busting. And while we can't know how long this bust will last, we can say we'll be there to trade from the long side when it's over.

This bust will be followed by a boom… which will be followed by another bust. It's the circle of life in the markets…

www.dailywealth.com
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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:41 am

India: Land of Energy Opportunity by Marin Katusa

Quick, what country is the economic engine that will power world growth? If you answered "China," you're far from alone. But there's another country that deserves as much attention and better yet, is much friendlier to investment: India, home to 1.2 billion people.

To electrify all those houses, power the industries that keep all those people employed, and fuel the vehicles that more and more Indians own, India's energy needs are shooting skyward.

First question to consider: what kind of energy does India need? Just about every kind, really. India encompasses significant reserves of coal, oil, and gas, but each year it has to import more and more to meet its rapidly rising demand.

Domestic production increases have been hampered by land disputes, interminably slow permitting, and government-regulated pricing mechanisms that discourage development.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/i ... 417ED0112A
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Re: India 02 (Sep 11 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:37 pm

Pvt equity firm General Atlantic says India attractive on forex weakness

SINGAPORE, Jan 13 (Reuters) - U.S. private equity firm General Atlantic LLC (GA) said on Friday the sharp depreciation of India's currency and a stock market decline, have created a good entry point for private equity investments in the South Asian nation.

"I think it is a very interesting entry point for India right now," CEO Bill Ford told reporters in Singapore, where the firm on Friday formally opened a new office.

"We are biased towards capital there." "The reason is the currency has moved up into the low 50s and for a dollar-based investor I think it is a very interesting moment to put capital right there," he added.

A combination of slowing growth and widening fiscal and current account deficits is weighing on the Indian rupee.

The rupee was the worst performer among Asian currencies last year, losing close to 16 percent against the dollar.

GA, which manages $17 billion in capital and owns a stake in Facebook, has invested $1 billion in companies in India over the past nine years, including stakes in IndusInd Bank and Infotech Enterprises Ltd , according to its website (www.generalatlantic.com).

Ford said the firm has made 2.5 times on its capital in Indian investments with an average holding period of four years.

Abhay Havaldar, who set up GA's India office in 2002 and has moved to Singapore recently, said the firm has 12 investments in India. The firm has also exited from four companies.

In China, GA last year invested in the initial public offering of China's hypermart firm Sun Art <6808.HK>, which raised $1.1 billion in a Hong Kong listing.

Ford said Asia accounts for about a quarter of its investments and should grow to a third over the medium-term.

He said fundamentals are intact for growth in China, India and Southeast Asia, while challenging public markets is creating room for private capital.

"This one should be a very active year," Ford said.

Source: Reuters
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