Thailand 02 (May 10 - Dec 14)

[winston]

Thai Futures up 4.5%. Election in November ?

===========================

=DJ ASIA FUND POLL: Managers Flock To Thailand Stocks
By Ellen Sheng Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Fund managers upped their investments in Thailand during the month of April, seeing opportunity as escalating political unrest weighed on valuations, according to Dow Jones Newswires' monthly fund manager survey.

Managers stayed 'overweight' on Thai stocks in April for the second month in a row. Weightings reflect managers' portfolio composition compared with benchmark indexes.

Despite the escalating protests, '[corporate] earnings so far are still quite good,' said Grace Tam, manager of investment services at JP Morgan Asset Management, which is overweight on the country.

'If the political crisis continues to deteriorate to the point where it affects earnings of companies that we like, then of course we will downgrade, but this is not the case yet,' Tam explained, adding that there are opportunities for surprise earnings upside. 'Equity analysts are already very bearish so their forecasts are very conservative, but we don't think their earnings will turn out that bad,' she said.

'Red Shirt' protesters have been facing off against troops since mid-March with demonstrators demanding re-elections. With unrest escalating, Thai army and government officials have now authorized military commanders to use lethal force to stamp down on the demonstrations.

The continued unrest has weighed a bit on equities with the Thai SET index down 2.5% so far this month. But valuations haven't been affected too much - the index is up almost 8% over the last three month period.

To be sure, while fund managers see opportunity for now, there are those who see an increasing risk that this time, the political unrest may have some lasting impact on economic growth. Put in that context, the dip in Thai stock valuations isn't that attractive.

'While the potential for a dissolution of the existing government looks increasingly more possible, the recent stock market decline should be kept in the context of the significant gains witnessed [earlier],' said Stuart Winchester, senior portfolio manager at RCM Asia Pacific, who believes that markets may have underestimated the resolve and staying power of the 'Red Shirt' protesters.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[millionairemind]

Or short covering???

[winston]

I cant find any Thai ETF listed in Singapore or HK.

The closest is 9213 listed in HK, a Call Warrant on the SET50.

No turnover so it's not worth buying that warrant.

[kennynah]

The ancient Chinese were really smart when they said:

大难不死, 必有后幅

when we look back at all the recent crisis, we can name many instances that it was smart to bet Long during crisis periods

now, think Greece

[winston]

when we look back at all the recent crisis, we can name many instances that it was smart to bet Long during crisis periods. now, think Greece

Ha Ha ... a lot of "experts" got whacked as well when they bet too early.

As for Thailand, having an Election in Nov does not mean that their problem is solved. If the Red Shirts win the election, what is going to prevent the military from launching a coup again ? A good time to sell if you have some Thai stocks rather than to buy.

As for Greece, the battle is not over. If the European Contagion happens, it will get ugly. Again, a good time to sell rather than to buy.

[kennynah]

dont worry about being too early..bcos we will never know when the bottom is until it's in hindsight.. as long as that underlying doesnt bankrupt... you just wait for the sun to shine... takes months at least....

and i am not suggesting to buy anything related to greece NOW...i'm saying look for opportunities there now...and buy only when one is sufficiently confident...ie, when the world is tumbling there...

[Poles]

Thailands biggest water melon

May 7, 2010

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has betrayed them all. Trying to hang on to his premiership as long as possible, he has decided to cut a deal directly with Khunying Pojaman Na Pompejara.

Korn Chatikavanij, the finance minister, got into contact with Yingluck Shinawatra, a younger sister of Thaksin Shinawatra. MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, the Bangkok governor, also negotiated with other Red Shirts. Korbsak Sabhavasu, the secretary to the prime minister, was thrown into the wolves among the Red Shirts. But in the end, it was Abhisit who got the true deal.

"We have got sold out by Abhisit. He is worst than Thaksin. Abhisit gave us the big smile and then stabbed us in the back. We are all screwed. He negotiated behind our back," a young Democrat told me. "This is sickening and digusting. Politics is so dirty. Abhisit does not give a shit about the Democrat Party. All he wants is to hang on to the PM."

Even Suthep Thuagsuban has also been betrayed by Abhisit. He was terribly mad at the Oxford boy, whom he had nurtured to become prime minister. Now this Oxford boy has driven a knife into his side. Suthep was about to quash the Red Shirts on Monday when Abhisit made a U-Turn by proposing a five-point road map to strike a compromise with the Red Shirts, whom he earlier called "terrorists".

Suthep has disappeared from the scene after Abhisit's announcement of the road map. He is now cursing Abhisit like hell. And he will strike back like hell too.

Former prime minister Chuan Leekpai has also been upset with Abhisit's attempt to carve out a hole for himself to slip through. He would like Abhisit to stick to the rule of law, but his protege has gone out to strike a deal with the Red Shirts in the most unthinkable fashion. He would fight against the Democrat Party's dissolution case through the rule of law. The Democrat Party is destined break apart by Abhisit's ill-thought move and Machiavellian politics.

Gen Anupong Paochinda, the army chief, has also been dealt with a huge shock by Abhisit's move. Abhisit has sought shelter from Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, the defence minister, instead. Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the army's spokesman, has come out to warn the Red Shirts that they must disperse because the road map is introduced for the country as a whole rahter than for the Red Shirts alone.

Gen Anupong is believed to have changed his track now by tightening the security around Bangkok, particularly around the Rajaprasong area, where the Red Shirts have camped out since Aprilo 12, 2010. He now has more incentives to quash the Red Shirts.

Don't be surprised if Abhisit were to include point number six in his road map, a point that he has not shared with several of his fellow Democrats. He would be serving as prime minister in the event of a formation of a national government.

"He has taken a position that if the Democrats are not keen to back him as PM, he would still get the backing from Phue Thai," said the up-and-coming Democrat. "I bet an amnesty for all the politicians is in the pipeline, so Abhisit can still hang around. This is not to mention that a full amnesty for Thaksin, if he is still alive, is a done deal."

Abhisit is so cold blooded and kill the hands that feed and help him to the premiership. The Democracts yesterday voted to approve the road map at their meeting at Parliament because each would get a piece of the deal. But the phuyai of this grand old party realise that the Democrats as a whole are driven into the corner.

The last time the Democrats went bankrupt because of Sor Por Kor deal. Now they are about to go bankrupt again because of the Nor Por Chor deal.

Abhisit has also arm-twisted Chai Chidchob and Newin Chidchob of the Bhumjai Thai Party. "Abhisit basically told Chai and Newin that he did not need their lousy 30 MPs because I got 180 MPs from Pue Thai to back me up. 'Screw you'."

With all of these political maneouvres, Abhisit is now walking proudly into the gallery of Dinosaur Hall of Fame. The Democrat Party is likely to be dissolved by the Constitution Court by the middle of August the latest. Abhisit would need all the help of Phue Thai to push out an amnesty legislation. Abhisit could then head a national government with the full backing of Phue Thai and a faction of Democrats.

"And you know what? Thailand's biggest Water Melon is Abhisit. We have all got fooled," the young Democrat told me.

***********************************************

This story, alerted to me by one of my readers, was taken from the National News Bureau of Thailand, the Public Relations of Thailand. I have earlier reported in one of my blogs that this is the case.

Sala Daeng grenades proven to be shot from
Chulalongkorn Hospital


5 May 2010 (NNT) – M79 grenade attacks at Sala Daeng Intersection on 22 April 2010 have been proven to be shot from Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, according to the Central Institute of Forensic Science Director, Khunying MD Pornthip Rojanasunan.


The director stated that M79 grenades against protestors of the Alliance of Patriots that day could have been launched from either the seventh or the eighth floor of King Bhumibol Building in Chulalongkorn Hospital based on traces and damages found at the scene.


Khunying MD Pornthip added that nitrate, a compound of the grenade, was found at both the seventh and the eighth floor of the building while a bullet hole was also found on the outside mirror of the women’s restroom on the eighth floor.


The director however could not conclude if the grenade attacks at BTS Sala Daeng station and in front of Bank of Ayudhya near Dusit Hotel were instigated by the same perpetrators or not due to different
projectile directions.


Khunying MD Pornthip reasoned that all CCTVs inside King Bhumibol Building inside the hospital were damaged, and therefore no traces of the unrest perpetrators could be tracked.

****************************************************
โดย Thanong
วันที่ ศุกร์ พฤษภาคม 2553

[winston]

Just last week, it looks like they were able to sort things out peacefully. Now, it will probably have to end in blood-shed. Hopefully, it will not lead to a civil war ...

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Explosions, gunfire in central Bangkok

Explosions, gunfire heard in central Bangkok where Red Shirt protesters are camped

Staff
AP News

May 13, 2010 08:29 EDT

Gunfire and at least four explosions were heard Thursday night in central Bangkok where Red Shirt anti-government protesters are camped.

It was not clear who was shooting, but the sounds came after the government said it will impose a military lockdown on the area in an effort to evict the protesters.

There was no immediate word if anyone was hurt.

A reporter for TNN television said electricity went out in the Red Shirt protest zone in Rajprasong, a posh area of shopping malls, hotels and upscale apartments.

Source: AP News

[winston]

Aide: Thai Red Shirt security chief shot in head

A renegade army officer accused of marshaling a paramilitary force among Thailand's Red Shirt protesters was shot in the head Thursday, apparently by a sniper, an aide said.

The aide who answered Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdiphol's mobile phone described the injury as "severe." The Associated Press called Khattiya's phone after several gunshots and explosions were heard in central Bangkok late Thursday from the vicinity of the area being occupied by the protesters.

"Seh Daeng was shot in the head," said the aide, referring to Khattiya by his nickname. The aide hung up without identifying himself.

It was not possible to verify the aide's claim that Khattiya was shot by a sniper. Calls to police and army spokesmen seeking comment were not answered.

Several Thai media outlets also reported that Khattiya was shot and taken to a hospital. Khattiya is a renegade army major general whom the government has labeled a "terrorist" and a mastermind behind violence from anti-government protesters.

The report of Khattiya's shooting came after sounds of gunfire and at least four explosions, and expectation that security forces could launch a crackdown.

It was not clear who was shooting, but the sounds came after the government said it will impose a military lockdown on the area to evict the thousands of protesters.

Khattiya, who helped construct the barricades paralyzing downtown Bangkok, was accused of creating a paramilitary force among the anti-government protesters and had vowed to battle against the army if it should launch a crackdown.

He was suspended from the army and his actions made him a fugitive from justice. Yet he has wandered freely through the protest zone, signing autographs just yards (meters) from security forces keeping watch over the protesters.

A reporter for TNN television said electricity went out late Thursday in the Red Shirt protest zone in Rajprasong, a posh area of shopping malls, hotels and upscale apartments that they have occupied since April 3 in the intractable political crisis gripping the country.

The Red Shirts, many from the rural poor, are demanding an immediate dissolution of Parliament. They believe Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's coalition government came to power illegitimately through manipulation of the courts and the backing of the powerful military.

Source: AP News

[winston]

I hope they wont end up like Sri Lanka. You now have the Reds, the Yellows as well as the Greens in the South ...

=======================================

One dead as violence erupts in Bangkok
Posted: 14 May 2010 0011 hrs

BANGKOK: Thai "Red Shirt" protesters clashed with troops in the heart of the capital on Thursday, leaving one dead and eight wounded, including a renegade general allied with the demonstrators.

Gunshots and a series of loud explosions were heard close to the Red Shirts' sprawling encampment in the retail heart of the capital occupied by thousands of opposition protesters.

One red-shirted demonstrator was shot in the head, and appeared to have been killed, as troops opened fire on advancing protesters, according to an AFP reporter.

Police later confirmed that one person had died while emergency services reported that eight people had been injured in the latest violent clashes.

Major-General Khattiya Sawasdipol, a key figure in the protest movement, was also shot in the head and seriously wounded while he was giving an interview to a newspaper journalist close to the protest hub.

Hours earlier the army had warned it would deploy snipers in the area around the rally site as part of a lockdown aimed at preventing more protesters entering.

One of Khattiya's aides told AFP by telephone from the hospital that he was believed to have been shot by a sniper, but there was no confirmation.

The fiery general, accused by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of trying to prevent an end to the street demonstrations, has made no secret of encouraging the "Red Shirt" protesters to oppose a reconciliation deal.

"It's important that I'm here. Everyone is here because Seh Daeng is here," he told AFP earlier in the day during an interview within the protest site, using his own nickname.

Wearing grenade pins in his floppy jungle hat and a combat knife on his belt, Khattiya, 58, has been regularly seen inspecting Red Shirt guards at the protest site, which has been fortified with barricades made from razor wire, fuel-soaked tyres and sharpened bamboo spears.

The clashes came after the premier shelved a plan for November elections and hopes faded for a resolution to a crippling two-month crisis that has sparked periodic violence, leaving 30 people dead and about 1,000 injured.

An army spokesman had said earlier that troops would surround the rally site in the heart of Bangkok with armoured vehicles and that demonstrators would be allowed to leave but not enter the area.

"Snipers will be deployed in the operation," said the spokesman, Colonel Sunsern Kaewkumnerd.

Sunsern said soldiers would be authorised to use real bullets for warning shots, self-defence and against "armed terrorists," although the government did not announce any immediate plan to forcibly disperse protesters.

An unsuccessful attempt by troops on April 10 to clear a different area in the capital's historic district sparked fierce street fighting that left 25 people dead and hundreds wounded.

Defiant Red Shirts vowed no surrender, despite the shooting of Khattiya.

"If you think the shooting of Seh Daeng will scare leaders and make them not dare to take the stage, you are wrong," one of the protest leaders, Jatuporn Prompan, said at the rally site.

"No matters what the weapons are, it means nothing to people who are calling for democracy like us. We will not leave here as losers."

Bracing for possible unrest elsewhere in the capital, the government extended a state of emergency already in place for the capital and surrounding areas to 15 more provinces.

The United States closed its embassy in Bangkok close to the protest site, saying it was "very concerned" about the violence. The British embassy was also closed, while the Dutch mission suspended visa services.

The Reds say the government is undemocratic because it came to power in a 2008 parliamentary vote after a court ousted elected allies of their hero, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was unseated in a 2006 coup.

Abhisit announced earlier he had ditched a plan to hold elections in mid-November under a peace plan aimed at ending the tense standoff because the protesters were refusing to disperse.

"I have told security officials to restore normality as soon as possible," he said.

The mostly poor and working class Reds, who launched their campaign in mid-March for immediate elections, initially agreed to enter the process but efforts to reach a deal that would see them go home have since broken down. - AFP/de

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 34/1/.html