STI - Market Direction 05 (Jan 10 - Apr 10)

STI - Market Direction 05 (Jan 10 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 04, 2010 5:29 pm

Straits Times Index: The skies remain clear

Moving up as forecasted. Our bullish expectations of the Straits Times Index (FSSTI Index) were generally on the correct track as the STI pierced above previous resistance at 2,873 and increased 2.1% for the week.

Going forward, with the MACD chart still emitting a bullish signal while Elliot Wave 5 continues to be at play, we thus opine that the STI remains on an uptrend. Furthermore, in anticipation of the Capricorn effect, we therefore are recommending investors to be overweight on equities and underweight on cash as we are expecting a positive close for the first month of the new year.

While immediate resistance is just a few points away at the 2,900 mark, a break above this level would see the STI next target the 2,960 resistance barrier. Should price action turn bearish, however, the support levels at 2,832 and 2,785 are expected to serve as deterrents to any downside pressures.

Source: DMG
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:58 pm

Not vested. From DBS:-

Next on the list

• Dual-listing catalyst in vogue again after Epure’s announcement yesterday

• Low valuation is key catalyst towards dual-listing or privatisation

• Possible dual-listing candidates are Midas, China Fish, Pacific Andes, China Animal and Yangzijiang.

• China Hongxing and China Sports with net cash positions are potential candidates for privatisation
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby kennynah » Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:02 pm

does dual listing mean that one company that is already public listed in one stock exchange, is now (mispelled earlier) seeking to be listed in another stock exchange...

do such companies get another fresh round of funds, as if it is an IPO counter?
Last edited by kennynah on Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:09 pm

kennynah wrote: does dual listing mean that one company that is already public listed in one stock exchange, is not seeking to be listed in another stock exchange...


Dual listing means you are listed on two exchanges. Theoretically, you can arbitrage between the two exchanges but it's not easy for the retail investors.

kennynah wrote: do such companies get another fresh round of funds, as if it is an IPO counter?


Yes, it's like selling new shares. .... exchanging paper for real money.

Also, people get carried away with big words like "dual listing" but lose sight on why those paper were not really worth anything in the first place...
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby kennynah » Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:13 pm

exactly.... i dont see the value of the dual listed shares...it is pure dilution of ONE singular asset.... theoretically, any dual listed company should have their share price devalued by the amount of new shares to be issued under the new exchange...
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:18 pm

But they say that they can get more for their paper in HK and Taiwan. Supposedly, people in HK and Taiwan are stupid enough to pay more for their share :?

Or maybe Singaporeans are not smart enough to recognize the value of these papers .. :P
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby kennynah » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:06 pm

you know...such dual listings are really due to the inefficiencies of individual stock exchanges and the immaturity of financial markets and sometimes political restrictions... but otherwise, this is an unnecessary exercise, if not becos companies want to tap almost free money from retailers by dual listings...
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby Musicwhiz » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:11 pm

Dual listing is such a sham. It's an alternative way of saying "I want more money", and instead of asking Singaporeans for it, they approach another country. :lol:

I personally am hoping the market and valuations will crash. That will make it easier to purchase shares of good companies.
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:20 pm

Wow... so exciting ! 10% upside in one year :P

Strategy from UOBKH:-

Undemanding valuation. In our view, the market does not look overvalued.
The market's 2010F PE of 15.3x looks undemanding against an EPS growth of 17.7% yoy. This compares well against its long-term mean of 17.6x. On a P/B basis, the market's P/B of 1.56x is also inexpensive and at a 11% discount to its long-term P/B of 1.75x.

End-10 FSSTI target: 3,270. Using a bottom-up approach of the target prices of the stocks under our coverage, we have a 12-month target of 3,270 for the FSSTI. This would imply a 2010F target PE of 17.6x, which is in line with its long-term PE of 17.6x.

Our Top BUYs include City Developments, Ho Bee, OCBC, DBS, CDREIT, Ezra Holdings, SIA Engineering and SPH.

Top SELL: Singapore Airlines.
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Re: STI - Market Direction & Strategy 5 (Jan 10 - Mar 10)

Postby kennynah » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:23 pm

there's a lot of talk about singapore forwardGDP growth for 2010 and 2011... all very rosy and positive... and thus, those forward looking expectations...

to be fair, no one will know with any degree of certainty if we will grow, stagnate or retard.... this is where juxtaposed opinion will determine the winners and losers in the stock markets....

for those who believe we will do exceptionally well, and have convincing reasons, should proceed to Long the market...
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