Turning Down in a Downturn
Down and Going Further Down: URA and HDB released the real estate statistics for 3Q08 on Friday. The overall theme is down, down, down – as prices and rentals for private residential, office and shop started to ease downwards. We expect this to be the start of a prolonged decline in capital and rental values into 2009.
Residential Prices Down 2.4%: In the residential segment, the private residential property price index (PPI) dropped 2.4% to an index reading of 173.3 points, compared to the 0.2% increase in 2Q08. Rental levels also started to turn, with private residential rentals dropping 0.9% in 3Q08, compared to a 2.5% increase in 2Q08.
On the supply front, there is significant pullback on completion numbers. The most significant decline came from 2010 pipeline numbers, which dropped by more than 3,000 units. Overall, 2009 and 2010 completions pulled back by about 16.4% of 2Q08 forecast numbers within the space of one quarter. The private housing vacancy rate tightened by 0.3ppt to 5.8%.
Be Cautious in Short Term: Negative newsflow such as this will continue to dog the property sector for some time, as the impact of a slowing economy filters down to the physical property market. We remain cautious for the short-term, particularly on the office and high-end residential plays. Our top buys in the sector are Allgreen Properties (BUY, TP S$0.68) on valuation grounds, A-Reit (BUY, TP S$2.10) and Mapletree Logistics (BUY, TP S$0.57) for their more resilient long-lease industrial space portfolio. Top sells include Guocoland (FV, TP S$0.81) and higher-end developers like SC Global (FV, TP S$0.38) and UIC (FV, TP S$1.37).
http://www.remisiers.org/research//sgproperty281008%20%20%20cautious%20%20DBSV.pdf