China - Economic Data & News 03 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:19 am

On CNBC:-

There's this guy ( foreigner ) who says he's overweight China because he FULLY understand all the risk in China :lol: :? :roll:

Reminds me of an expat that I was working with. He was telling people that he was an "expert" in a certain area. When I drilled down, he has one year of experience in that area :lol: :D :roll:
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 25, 2010 11:01 pm

Beijing to close thousands of lobbying offices

China is hoping to close thousands of local government lobbying offices in Beijing to cut down on waste and corruption, official media reported Monday.

Liaison offices representing regional governments have operated in the capital for decades, but their numbers have skyrocketed in recent years as part of sharpening competition for central government funding.

Now Beijing wants to close the Beijing offices of up to 10,000 county administrations, industrial zones, and local government departments over the next six months, according to the official magazine Outlook.

The offices are widely considered a symbol of bloated bureaucracy and abuse of public resources, but are considered necessary because of China's highly centralized decision-making process. Outlook said an order to close them was being drafted, but gave few other details.

Source: AP News
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby kennynah » Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:08 am

winston wrote:On CNBC:-

There's this guy ( foreigner ) who says he's overweight China because he FULLY understand all the risk in China :lol: :? :roll:

Reminds me of an expat that I was working with. He was telling people that he was an "expert" in a certain area. When I drilled down, he has one year of experience in that area :lol: :D :roll:


so you fired him?
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby millionairemind » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:25 pm

Jan 26, 2010
China halts bank lending

SHANGHAI - FRESH evidence emerged on Tuesday that Chinese authorities had ordered several banks to stop issuing new loans this month as fears grow that the extra money is fuelling inflation.

Credit Suisse said in a research note that six banks had confirmed new lending had been suspended from Jan 19 after an emergency meeting by the central bank's monetary policy bureau. It didn't name the banks.


There are growing concerns in Beijing that speculators are taking advantage of the money sloshing around the markets, which could cause stock or property bubbles. The report came as a China Citic Bank employee, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Dow Jones Newswires the central People's bank of China had told it to halt new loans because it had reached its January quota.

'The People's Bank of China and the (bank's) headquarters have told us to control the pace of lending this year,' he was quoted as saying, adding that the order appeared to be directed at the bank's Shanghai offices. 'Our headquarters hasn't asked branches across the country to suspend lending.'

A spokesman for Bank of China, the country's largest foreign exchange bank, declined to say whether it had been told to suspend giving out new loans. However, it said authorities wanted to 'rebalance monthly and quarterly lending as much as possible' after a large amount of credit was extended in the first 20 days of January.

New loans at Chinese banks totalled 9.6 trillion yuan (S$1.97 trillion) last year - nearly double the 2008 figure. The banking regulator has set this year's target at about 7.5 trillion yuan and in the first two weeks of January new loans totalled 1.1 trillion yuan - in line with the surge in lending at the start of last year. However, the latest data shows the pace of
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby millionairemind » Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:08 am

Jan 27, 2010
Zhu warns of new Asian crisis
DAVOS (Switzerland) - CHINA'S deputy central bank chief warned Wednesday that tighter US monetary policy could spark a sudden outflow of capital from emerging markets, evoking the 1990s Asian financial crisis.

A rapid withdrawal of funds would not only cause volatility in the currency exchange markets, but could also generate currency moves similar to those during the Asian crisis of over a decade ago.

'Capital flows - it's a real risk this year for the economy,' Zhu Min told participants at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in the mountain resort of Davos.

He noted that investors are increasingly borrowing the cheap US dollar, and investing the borrowed funds in emerging markets, where interest rates are higher, and therefore generating a better return than saving in the dollars. This phenomenon called carry trade in the US dollar is a 'massive issue today,' said Mr Zhu. 'It's bigger than the Japanese yen carry trade 12 years ago,' he said.

However, if the United States were to tighten its lax monetary policy, making borrowing more costly, funds could then flow out just as suddenly from emerging markets, back into the US market. This could cause a collapse in emerging markets' currencies, and spark a repeat of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.

Then, the Japanese yen was cheap and investors were borrowing it and investing in South-east Asian economies, fueling strong growth in the region. But as exports slumped amid a global demand slowdown, speculators began attacking the South-east Asian currencies, believing that they were overvalued. -- AFP
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby profittaker » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:48 pm

This is from "David Yap's Oriental Master Code". If you are interested, below is the brief english translation. I have no comment on his prediction, but I feel current correction has more to go.

"Basically 2010 is string in 1H and weak in 2H, unlike 2009 which is weak in 1H and strong in 2H. Highest point is at Q2 Jun-Aug. But there is a condition to be met: profit taking activities in Feb and Mar do not exceed 50%, else Q2 will be a rebound only. Lowest point is around Q3 and Q4, pay attention to eng-Aug early-Sep, mid-Oct or end-Nov. After lowest point, market go up for 5~7 months, until roughly 2011Q2."

"在此簡單地為大家講解2010的走勢,基本上可以定位為先陽而后陰,與2009年的先陰后陽有所區別。走勢最高點將會是第二季的6月至8月(第2季升勢必須遵守的條件是:2月、3月套利的底部沒有跌超過50%調整幅度,否則第二季原本的升勢將改為反彈趨勢罷了)。全年最低點大約處在下半年的第3與第 4季,可以留意築底的月份為最早8月尾9月頭,10月中或11月尾,此後將會出現5-7個月的升勢,至2011年第二季。"
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 29, 2010 7:35 am

China Takes Dangerous Shortcuts to Growth By Vitaliy Katsenelson

The Chinese economy must be getting out of control, because the Chinese government is doing the unthinkable: It is desperately trying to put the brakes on the economy.

When you pump a stimulus package that represents 14% of GDP through a fire hose into an economy, which was already on shaky bubble foundation, in a very short time, you'll have some serious unintended consequences: super bubbles.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10669379 ... rowth.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby kennynah » Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:08 pm

W : so how come Shanghai is holding up pretty good today? chairman hu signalled from davos?
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 3 (Jun 09 - Jan 10)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:23 pm

Ha Ha .. maybe the local Plunge Protection Team has been working over-time :P
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