China - Economic Data & News 02 (Nov08 - May09)

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Tue May 12, 2009 11:24 am

Canton Fair order down 20%..
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Tue May 12, 2009 12:29 pm

China not going to save the world ?

From Reuters:-

China's exports fell a worse-than-expected 22.6 percent in April from a year earlier, while imports fell 23.0 percent, the official Xinhua news agency said on Tuesday. [ID:nBJB000610] The trade data dampened some of the hopes for a turnaround in the global economy that had fuelled a surge in equity markets from their 2009 lows in early March. The dollar and yen on Tuesday were steady a day after gaining on safe-haven demand.

"Exports are still falling, and the future of the world economy remains uncertain. It's really hard to be optimistic about China's trade prospects," said Qi Jingmei, an economist with the State Information Centre in Beijing.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Tue May 12, 2009 3:46 pm

China exports fall as domestic demand surges

China's efforts to boost domestic demand to fight the global financial crisis showed strong signs of success Tuesday with investment in infrastructure rising as exports fell. Shipments fell 22.6 percent in April from a year earlier in the sixth straight monthly decline, according to figures from the customs bureau.

But urban fixed asset investment , an indicator of the government's progress in lifting growth by funding infrastructure projects, was up 30.5 percent in the first four months of 2009, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

"This very obviously shows that domestic demand is quite good, maybe because of the fiscal stimulus package, and external demand is still too weak," said Xu Jian, a Beijing-based economist at China International Capital Cooperation.

Chinese authorities in November unveiled a four-trillion-yuan (580-billion-dollar) stimulus package to combat the financial crisis and to stimulate demand at home. This came as China's massive export machine -- on which the nation's economy depends -- was battered late last year as the crisis hurt overseas demand.

The slowdown has led to the closure of thousands of exporting factories in the country's manufacturing heartlands, and, according to government data, at least 25 million migrant workers from poor rural areas are now unemployed. Figures released by the statistics bureau also showed that funds for fixed asset spending in China came overwhelmingly from domestic sources this year.

Investments by domestic enterprises in the first four months of the year were up 34.6 percent, while investment by foreign businesses in the same period was down 1.2 percent, it said. According to the customs data, China's exports in April rose 6.9 percent compared to March, and imports increased 15.1 percent.

Glenn Maguire, chief economist for the Asia Pacific region at Societe Generale, said this was consistent with the feature of an economy that was being driven by very strong fixed-asset investment growth. "As China moves to an investment- and infrastructure-heavy growth model, what we are seeing is the economy is sucking in imports to meet that," he said.

Xu said that he expected exports to gradually improve towards the end of the year. "But in the future, the government will definitely focus their policy more on consumption, as it knows its economy is imbalanced," he said, adding that this would take time.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Wed May 13, 2009 1:18 pm

West holds key for mainland growth next year

China may not be able to sustain its economic expansion next year if there is no recovery, particularly in the West, a senior World Bank official said.

China posted growth of 6.1 percent in the first quarter, down from 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

''I think the key concern is if the rest of the world begins to recover, in particular Europe and the United States, China's exports market returns, then there is a high probability that we get higher growth rates next year – that is the key determinant,'' said Jim Adams, vice president for East Asia and Pacific region.

The bank in March slashed China's growth forecast to 6.5 percent for 2009, well below the level the nation says it needs to keep enough people at work and to avoid social unrest.

The Washington-based development lender has cut sharply its 7.5 percent forecast made in November, less than a week after Premier Wen Jiabao insisted the economy would be able to achieve 8 percent growth ''with considerable effort.''

Adams said: ''We still think that in light of recent numbers that 6.5 percent, in spite of the slow start, is a realistic target for China,''

If the United States, for example, grew at a pace of 3 percent next year as projected by the government, ''then I think we will be quite confident China will be able to increase its growth rate next year.

''If not, China has to rely on domestic stimulus.''


( Another 1000t program coming ? )

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Wed May 13, 2009 9:01 pm

Consumer finance system in works to boost spending

The mainland will launch a system of loans to pay for home appliances, tours and weddings, state media said, in a move to stimulate spending during the current economic slowdown.

The government will allow the establishment of so-called ''consumer finance companies'' in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chengdu on a trial basis, the Shanghai Securities News reported.

The companies, which will not accept public deposits, will lend to consumers to allow them to pay for tours, weddings, home decoration, electronic products and home appliances, said a draft regulation posted on the national banking regulator's website.

The level of the loan should not be greater than five times the borrower's monthly income.

The firms will approve the loans quickly and will require no collateral, making them more attractive than commercial banks.

The companies should have registered capital of no less than 300 million yuan (HK$341.64 million).

The draft regulation said interested financial institutions with five years' experience in related business and total assets of at least 80 billion yuan can invest in the companies.

It said some non-financial institutions also could invest but provided few details.

It was not clear how the companies would be run or by whom.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Thu May 14, 2009 10:01 pm

China likely to see increase in bad loans

Agencies on Thursday, May 14, 2009

China's financial system may see an increase in bad loans as a result of the government's stimulus policies, said Daisuke Kotegawa, an International Monetary Fund official who helped reform Japan's banks starting in the 1990s.

China's policies to revive economic growth, including a four trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package, are fuelling lending for infrastructure projects rather than boosting consumption, Kotegawa said.

"I'm afraid that will not change, and those investments could be a source of non-performing loans," he said. "The Chinese government needs to set aside financial resources to address that issue."

China's new loans in the first four months exceeded the central bank's full year target of $5 trillion, as lenders supported the government aid plans. Non-performing loans stood at 549.5 billion yuan at the end of March, or about 2.04 per cent of the total, according to the banking regulator.

( That's a huge number ! )

Japan's government struggled for a decade to deal with the effects of bad loans in its banking sector, and the Chinese government should study that "bad example," Kotegawa said. Still, he called the Asian nation "the only hope" for reviving global economic expansion.

Jim Adams, World Bank's Vice-President for East Asia and Pacific region, said China may not be able to sustain its economic expansion in 2010 if there is no recovery particularly in the United States and Europe. China posted growth of 6.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, down from 6.8 per cent in the final three months of 2008.

http://www.business24-7.ae/articles/200 ... 19875.aspx
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Fri May 15, 2009 6:53 pm

From SCMP:-

Govt Spending increased 25%

Govt Receipts decreased 15%

Target Budget Deficit Rmb 1Trillion
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby blid2def » Sun May 17, 2009 3:38 am

Good read; comments following the article are some pretty intelligent and interesting exchanges.

-----

Exports versus domestic demand – the argument rages
May 8th, 2009 by Michael Pettis

http://mpettis.com/2009/05/exports-vers ... ent-rages/
blid2def
Permanent Loafer
 
Posts: 2477
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 7:03 pm

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Mon May 18, 2009 8:23 am

Green shoots dont need electricity to grow :P

China electricity use down in April: report

China's electricity consumption fell 3.6 percent year on year in April, a larger drop than in March, the latest sign an economic recovery has yet to take hold, state media reported Sunday.

The industrial sector consumes about 70 percent of the power in China, according to the report by the official Xinhua news agency, and the decline is inconsistent with data indicating industrial activity has been expanding.

Power consumption was down 2.0 percent year on year in March, the report said, citing figures from the China Electricity Council. Industrial output -- a main gauge of activity in plants across China -- rose 7.3 percent last month from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said last week, down from 8.3 percent growth in March.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/090517/1/4nxpt.html
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: China - Economic Data & News (Nov08 - May09)

Postby winston » Tue May 19, 2009 3:31 pm

From Lim & Tan:-

According to an article in Financial Times (FT) today, China’s RMB4trn economic stimulus package announced last Nov is being delayed by local governments who are unable to raise their share of financing. This information was reported by the China’s state auditor.

According to the report published yesterday, this is the first official indication that China’s stimulus measures have not been as effective as the government claims. The state auditor said that some local government had stumped up less than 1/2 of the funds they had originally promised for projects in their jurisdictions even though Beijing had transferred 94% of the money earmarked by the central government for the stimulus plan.

More worryingly, it added that some local officials had made false reports on the progress of the investment projects and some had used stimulus funds obtained from the Central government to pay off old debts. The auditor said that future audits will focus on misuse of public resources by government officials.

The above represents a big problem for China as according to the report, the Central Government is only coming up with RMB1.2trn out of the RMB4trn stimulus package announced with the rest expected to come from the respective local governments and state owned enterprises.

This coupled with the recently announced weaker than expected export decline of 22.6% in Apr ’09 (together making up about 60% of China’s GDP) would make it much more difficult for the government to meet their 8% growth target for this year.

An article in today’s TODAY listed about 41 SChips either being queried by SGX for unusual transactions or events or had their audit reports being emphasised by their respective auditors or worse still have their auditors emphasising going concern issues and several having been suspended from trading due to outright fraud. Fortunately for us, our favourite S-Chip, Midas was not in the list.

We believe investors should be cautious on S-Chips in general due to the numerous financial frauds that
have occurred and there is as yet news of criminal charges filed against the respective culprits, unlike
Accord Customer Care Solutions and China Aviation Oil whose respective CEOs were jailed for several years due to their crimes. This would deter local company key management team from committing criminal activities.

According to experts, due to the different jurisdictions, even those S-Chip management team found to have committed criminal charges can simply quit the company and just not step foot into Singapore and they can get away “scot-free” even with criminal charges filed against them.

In fact, according to China’s State auditor, it is even happening with government officials handling stimulus funds, let alone company management handling public listed company funds where they have control over.

We suspect this is what is happening at Sino Environment where the entire key management team has resigned and the independent directors have found irregularities with their cash transactions in 1Q09 and have asked PWC to investigate the matter (PWC had gone to China yesterday to start investigations). But as seen in China Sun’s case, we doubt if the auditors can find the “real” cash transactions.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 101119
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to Archives

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

cron