HK - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Sep 14)

HK - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Sep 14)

Postby kennynah » Fri May 16, 2008 5:13 pm

16 May 2008 09:01 GMT

Hong Kong Q1 GDP rises 7.1 percent on robust domestic consumption

HONG KONG (Thomson Financial) - Hong Kong's gross domestic product grew at faster-than-expected pace as low unemployment and robust domestic consumption shored up the economy.

GDP rose 7.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, better than the 6.0 percent forecast of economists polled by Thomson IFR.

But the government is keeping its full-year forecast of 4 percent to 5 percent growth, although it expects GDP for 2008 to come in at "the upper end of the forecast."
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Re: HK & China - General News

Postby kennynah » Tue May 20, 2008 7:19 am

Hong Kong's Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 3.3% (Update1)

By Nipa Piboontanasawat

May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.3 percent, matching the lowest in a decade, helping to boost consumer spending and sustain growth in the city as global demand fades.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate was for the three months ended April, the government said today on its Web site. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the rate to stay at 3.4 percent.

Banks and retailers are recruiting as Hong Kong benefits from its proximity to China, the world's fastest-growing major economy. An improved labor market, lower interest rates and tax relief may support domestic household consumption and shield the city from weaker overseas demand.

``Export, visitor and capital flows from China have created most of the jobs for Hong Kong in the past few years,'' said Kevin Lai, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. ``Domestic demand will remain robust amid a solid labor sector, negative real interest rates and fiscal stimulus.''

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, plans to triple its office capacity in Hong Kong by 2010. The expansion will allow employing as many as 4,000 workers, up from 1,500 currently, the company said on May 6.

Last month's jobless rate matched February's as the lowest in 10 years. The government calculates Hong Kong's unemployment on a rolling three-month basis to smooth out seasonal factors.

Faster Growth

Hong Kong's economy grew 7.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in two years. Household spending jumped 7.9 percent.

Rising incomes are spurring consumption. The average wage rose 2.7 percent in December from a year earlier.

The increase in wages may also escalate inflation as companies pass on higher labor costs to buyers. Consumer prices rose 4.2 percent in March from a year earlier, more than double the 2 percent rate registered for all of 2007.

Hong Kong's economic growth will probably slow to between 4 percent and 5 percent this year from a 6.4 percent expansion in 2007 as global demand cools, the government forecast last week.

The number of people employed rose by 4,500 in the three months ended April to 3.5 million, the government said.

``The near-term employment outlook will hinge on how the moderation in global economic growth affects the local economy and in particular the pace of job creation in the private sector,'' today's statement said.
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China - Economic Data & News

Postby kennynah » Tue May 27, 2008 6:25 pm

27 May 2008 09:41 GMT

Hong Kong April exports jump 14.5 pct yr-on-yr by value
- UPDATE

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Hong Kong's exports in April jumped 14.5 pct year-on-year to 243.4 bln hkd, after rising 7.6 pct in March, the government said.

Within the total, re-exports grew 15.5 pct to 235.6 bln hkd, while domestic exports fell by 10.0 pct to 7.8 bln hkd.

Imports of goods grew 11.3 pct over a year earlier to 259.6 bln hkd in April, after a year-on-year increase of 6.6 pct in March.

The visible trade deficit for the month was 16.2 bln hkd, equivalent to 6.2 pct of the value of imports of goods during the period.

A government spokesman said mainland China resumed its role as the main growth driver in April after a sluggish performance in March.

The continued vibrancy of intra-regional trade in Asia, combined with a notable expansion of the EU market, more than offset continued weakness in the US and Japan, he said.

Exports to the mainland jumped 17.4 pct year-on-year to 122.23 bln hkd in April, while exports to the US decreased by 1.8 pct to 28.82 bln hkd and exports to Japan declined by 2.4 pct to 10.10 bln hkd.

Exports to Asia as a whole grew by 17.3 pct year-on-year in April. Shipments to India surged 92.4 pct, while Vietnam was up 37.8 pct, Singapore was up 25.4 pct, Thailand was up 19.0 pct, and Malaysia was up 17.8 pct.

Significant increases were also posted in exports to some other major destinations, with shipments to Germany up 25.7 pct and to the Netherlands up 18.7 pct.

For the first four months of the year, total exports rose 11.5 pct over the same period in 2007.

Within this total, re-exports increased by 12.1 pct while domestic exports decreased by 2.6 pct.

Imports of goods grew 11.5 pct. A visible trade deficit of 67.7 bln hkd, equivalent to 7.1 pct of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in the period.

The government spokesman said the outlook for trade remains uncertain and challenging amid the slower growth in the major advanced economies and ongoing global financial turbulence.

Nevertheless, growth momentum in the mainland and other emerging markets should continue to support Hong Kong's external trade, he said.
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China - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:34 pm

Hong Kong funds opened to Aust investors

Australian investors will have greater access to Hong Kong financial products after the signing of an agreement between local and Hong Kong regulators.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) will allow most retail funds registered in Hong Kong to be offered to local investors, while Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission will recognise Australian funds.

That means local investors will be able to access most funds in Hong Kong, and vice-versa.

ASIC's chairman, Tony D'Alosio, says it is an important milestone towards stronger regulatory ties between international bodies.
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Re: HK - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Mon Jul 28, 2008 10:37 am

WEN WEI PO

-- Today is the fifth anniversary of the mainland's individual travel policy to Hong Kong, with 49 cities now on a list where residents are allowed to apply for visas to visit Hong Kong. More than 30 million individual mainland travellers have visited Hong Kong in the past five years.

-- Guangdong and Hong Kong are said to be signing the supplement document to their bilateral trade treaty. Rumours say many trades including medical and educational services in Hong Kong will enjoy concessions to expand business into the mainland.
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Re: HK - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:32 pm

HK restaurant receipts rise 15.3 pct in value in Q2

HONG KONG, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's restaurant receipts rose 15.3 percent to HK$19.14 billion (US$2.45 billion) in the second quarter of 2008 from the same period last year, data from the Census and Statistics Department showed on Tuesday.

The government revised total restaurant receipts for the first quarter of 2008 to HK$19.5 billion, up slightly from a HK$19.47 billion provisional figure released in May.

The following are year-on-year percentage changes in the value by type of restaurant:

Q2 2008 Q1 2008

Chinese restaurants 16.3 16.9

Non-Chinese restaurants 15.9 17.7^

Fast food shops 11.3 10.9

Bars 18.4 20.7

^ = revised
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Re: HK - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Thu Aug 07, 2008 6:27 pm

Hong Kong warns of downside growth risks

HONG KONG, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Joseph Yam, head of Hong Kong's central bank, warned of downside risks to the territory's economic growth on Thursday, echoing analysts' views that the city is now vulnerable to global headwinds.

"We do not rule out that economic growth will be worse than expected," Yam told reporters, adding that a slower performance would disrupt a sustained period of rapid economic growth since the city's recovery from the outbreak of the SARS virus in 2003.

The government and economists forecast gross domestic product would increase by around 5 percent this year, down from average annual growth of 7.3 percent over the past four years, but economists also see downside risk in the wake of recent data.

June exports unexpectedly declined from a year earlier and a purchasing managers' index for July showed private sector business activity contracted for the first time in 3-½ years as new orders fell.

While exports could pick up in coming months, the pace of growth is unlikely to match a 9 percent rise in the first half given signs of slowing demand in both the United States and Europe, analysts say. Yam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said the fallout from a weak U.S. housing market may be more protracted than first thought.

Domestic demand in Hong Kong is solid, and likely to keep driving economic growth as low unemployment at 3.3 percent is pushing up wages and households, and companies have relatively low debt. June retail sales data, though, disappointed for a second straight month as sales in real terms grew only 4 percent from a year earlier compared with average growth of 11.2 percent over the past year.

Analysts attributed the slowdown in part to rising inflation, which is at an 11-year high, topping 6 percent in June, and starting to erode consumer purchasing power.

"The slowdown in exports and retail sales combined makes for a tougher environment," said Sean Yokota, an economist at UBS.

He forecast only 3.9 percent economic growth this year and a 4.1 percent expansion next year.

"The first half (of 2009) will be difficult as Hong Kong will be vulnerable to an export slowdown," he said. "But as the global economy starts to recover in the second half, Hong Kong will be one of the first economies to recover as well."

China's rapid economic development continues to provide a cushion for the territory, boosting tourism as mainland Chinese flock to shop here, and encouraging mainland companies to list on the Hong Kong bourse and use the services of Hong Kong lawyers, accountants and other professionals.

Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Research Institute, said a weak Hong Kong dollar <HKD=>, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar, is underpinning the domestic economy as China's yuan <CNY=CFXS> currency is gradually appreciating.

"The weak currency means those services are cheaper than a year ago for mainland Chinese," he said.

However, first-half earnings reports this week highlighted the territory's exposure to global economic challenges. High oil prices pushed flagship carrier Cathay Pacific Airways (0293.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) into the red for the first time since the SARS outbreak in 2003, while Bank of East Asia's (0023.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) net profit plunged 52 percent after writedowns linked to the global credit crisis.
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Re: HK - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:37 pm

Peg here to stay, says Yam

The peg of the local currency to the US dollar suits Hong Kong and no other system would suit better in the foreseeable future, said the de facto central bank chief.

Joseph Yam Chi-kwong, on the third day of a series of interviews by a local TV station, said he believes Hong Kong economy relies on the performance of its largest trading partners - the US and China, and it is normal for it to be going through a downward trend after the exceptional good years from 2003 to 2007.

He also believes local banks may continue to suffer, "it's not a big surprise if [local banks] see red for the full year as they are directly impacted by the economy."

STAFF REPORTER
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Re: HK - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Fri Oct 03, 2008 2:46 pm

JP Morgan says Hong Kong set for for mild recession in Q4

HONG KONG, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Hong Kong is set to tip into recession in the fourth quarter as weakening global growth hits the territory's exports, but should see a mild rebound in the second quarter of next year, JP Morgan said in a research note on Friday.

The investment bank forecast the territory's GDP would contract by 1 percent seasonally adjusted in the fourth quarter and by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

Hong Kong's service exports would also be subdued given stress in global financial markets and as weaker global growth hurts tourism, the bank said.

JP Morgan lowered its full-year 2008 growth forecast to 3.5 percent, from 4 percent, and cut its 2009 growth forecast to 1.8 percent from 4.5 percent. That would be well below average annual growth of 4.4 percent over the past 20 years and a 7.3 percent annual average in the past four years.

Economic activity, however, should pick up in the second quarter of 2009 as inflation falls and on the back of fiscal stimulus, including government infrastructure projects, JP Morgan said.
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Re: HK - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:47 pm

HK unveils surprise rate cut as credit crunch deepens

HONG KONG, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Hong Kong said it will slash its main interest rate by up to 100 basis points, the biggest cut since the benchmark started a decade ago, as central banks around the world stepped up efforts to halt a growing credit crunch that is hammering financial markets.

Economists said the surprise move could help ease liquidity pressure on some banks but warned that lenders will remain cautious and prudent with financial markets still volatile.

Spokesmen at commercial lenders such as HSBC Holdings Plc <0005.HK> told Reuters they were studying the move but could not say whether local banks will adjust their own policies.

This week, JP Morgan warned that Hong Kong will slip into recession in the fourth quarter.

Hong Kong will reduce the spread of its base rate, or discount window rate, to 50 basis points above the prevailing U.S. Federal Funds Target Rate from Thursday, from the current 150 basis points, under a "new formula", Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam said on Wednesday.

That will be the single biggest reduction since 1998 when the base rate -- the reference on which the interest rates charged by the HKMA for borrowing by licensed banks through the discount window are calculated -- was in place, a HKMA spokesman said.

"As a result, there will be a cut in the base rate, effective tomorrow, from 3.5 percent to 2.5 percent," Yam said.

But the spokesman added that the base rate can be set using either the new formula or the average of the five-day moving averages of the overnight and one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), whichever is higher.

Hong Kong, a major global financial centre and the main investment gateway into China, follows U.S. rate moves because its currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar. But tight credit markets are putting upward pressure on rates globally.

"This may not have an immediate impact in the market, but we hope the new formula could help stabilise the interbank rates in the long run and lower the pressure on banks to lift lending rates," Yam added.

Traders said the effective reduction in the base rate could be smaller as it will be calculated on the average of the relevant inter-bank (HIBOR) rates, which have been rising, dealers said.

"This is seen as being able to soothe the liquidity pressures for banks, but HIBORs could take time to fall as banks should remain prudent in their lending amidst volatile market conditions," Standard Chartered Global Research said in a report on Wednesday.

The overnight rate HIBOR was fixed at 2.11429 percent at 0315 GMT, up from 1.75000 percent on Monday following the Chung Yeung Festival holiday on Tuesday.

The Hong Kong dollar was slightly firmer at 7.7688 per U.S. dollar, close to the upper end of the 7.75-7.85 band it is allowed to move in.

HKMA has said the city's money market was orderly despite rising concerns about credit risk, but it was ready to provide more liquidity if necessary.

Wednesday's move followed a series of measures announced last week to ease liquidity, including the acceptance of U.S.-dollar assets as collateral in the interbank market.

Australia's central bank on Wednesday said it was expanding the liquidity assistance it provides banks in money market operations, a day after slashing rates to protect its economy and banking system from an increasingly hostile global environment.

The U.S. Federal Reserve stepped forward on Tuesday as a commercial lender of last resort and signaled a readiness to cut interest rates as stocks dropped for a fifth straight day and as pressure mounted for a coordinated, international response to the most dangerous financial shock since the Great Depression.

The British government was readying a rescue package for the UK banking system that was likely to include public money injected into the banks. That plan will be announced later on Wednesday, five days after the U.S. government approved a $700 billion bailout fund that has failed to calm markets.

U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy was being battered by a financial crisis of "historic dimension", which many analysts fear could trigger a global recession.
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