HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Aug 11)

Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Mar 11)

Postby winston » Wed Mar 09, 2011 3:07 pm

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DJ MARKET TALK: HK Developers Up; GS Likes Sino, Kerry, SHKP, HLP

1448 [Dow Jones] HK developers are higher, with Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016.HK) +0.9% at HK$128.50, Sino Land (0083.HK) +0.4% at HK$14.32, and Henderson Land (0012.HK) +0.9% at HK$50.70.

Goldman Sachs says the sector is standing at about 26% discount to the house's NAV estimates based on their current prices.

Earlier this week, Cheung Kong's (0001.HK) unit Carlford Investments has won the tender for a rural site in the New Territories for HK$2.41 billion; the house says the high tender price suggests that demand for large residential parcels remains strong.

"The tender result bodes well for upcoming launches - particularly those projects in nearby areas, such as Cheung Kong's Uptown in Hung Shui Kiu and Sun Hung Kai Properties' One Regent Place in Yuen Long and Avignon in Tuen Mun."

Its top picks are Sino Land, Kerry (0683.HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties and Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK).


Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Mar 11)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 21, 2011 7:41 am

So if you were a HK property "expert" 13 years ago, you can now break-even. I'm sure those who bought 13 years ago, have the same justification eg. property can only go up, land is scarce, it beats inflation, FT coming, etc ..

Hong Kong Property: Actually, It's More Expensive Now Than 1997
by Zarathustra W., Also Sprach Analyst
.
As the widely followed Centa-City Leading Index approaches the level of 100, it means that the overall home prices in Hong Kong is getting closer to its previous peak in 1997 right before the Asian Financial Crisis hit.

Perhaps it is something that some people would like to celebrate, e.g. those who bought their homes at the peak in 1997.

While there are still a few percentage points ahead before hitting the previous peak, the overall home prices in Hong Kong are really more expensive now than 1997.

In addition to the fact that Hong Kong real estate are 13 years older overall than they were in 1997, there is one big problem that very few people care to think about that.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kon ... z1HBagaPyp
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Mar 11)

Postby winston » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:33 am

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DJ MARKET TALK: Some HK Property Sellers Willing To Lower Prices-JPM

1120 [Dow Jones] JPMorgan notes 195 units were sold in the primary market of the HK residential property sector last week, compared with 63 units sold the week before.

"Some sellers are willing to lower their asking prices by 1%-10% in view of the market uncertainty caused by rising Hibor-based mortgage rate and the Japan earthquake."

Secondary prices continued to rise but the growth rate has slowed down, but overall secondary market prices are just 6% below 1997's peak, it adds.

Local property stocks are mixed after Monday's gains, with Cheung Kong (0001.HK) down 0.1% at HK$118.70, Sino Land (0083.HK) off 1.2% at HK$13.30, Henderson Land (0012.HK) up 0.1% at HK$48.60 and K. Wah (0173.HK) 2.4% higher at HK$3.37.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Mar 11)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:57 am

Hong Kong Property: The Impact Of China's Tightening
Zarathustra W., Also Sprach Analyst

Since the Japan’s earthquake hit on 11 March 2011 and I subsequently call the “beginning of the end” of the Hong Kong property bull cycle, sentiment has deteriorated somewhat.

Fear not, this is not the end (in a Churchillian tone). It’s just the beginning of the end.

I have repeatedly said that Hong Kong property prices are driven by money flow. The reason for low interest rates is that money flowing into the banking system, increasing the money supply (because of the linked exchange rate system, capital flow can only be adjusted through money supply, not exchange rate), making the interest rates low.

The interest rates in the United States can be totally irrelevant to interest rates in Hong Kong, so we should never look only to the United States when we try to predict what is going to happen in Hong Kong.

I set out a few possible scenarios on how capital flow will be unfavourable for Hong Kong property earlier this year in my forecast. I put quite some emphasis on the impact of monetary tightening on China and Hong Kong real estate market, and on the possibility that Chinese buyers retreat from the market:


http://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kon ... ing-2011-3
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Mar 11)

Postby kennynah » Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:04 am

Fear not, this is not the end (in a Churchillian tone). It’s just the beginning of the end.


in case you are interested to know... these words in bold were once uttered by winston churchill during one of his public speeches in WWII when he announced a victorious battle campaign against nazi germany..hence the "churchillian" tone...
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Mar 11)

Postby winston » Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:11 am

Not vested. If the "experts" are that good, why not speculate on properties instead of writing reports ?

DJ MARKET TALK: HK Property Prices To Fall 15%-20% In 2012-Barclays

0943 [Dow Jones] Barclays Capital remains Positive on HK property developers; it says it's early to call on tightening credit liquidity in the HK housing market.

"While we do not expect a near-term correction, rising mortgage rates hold the potential for a price correction into 2012, in our view, driven by reduced affordability and purchasing power for new buyers, leading to negative sentiment among investors," it says.

It expects mass price increase of 10%-15% this year, but with the prospect for a 15%-20% correction in 2012 and a 10% correction in 2013.

HK property developers are mixed, with Cheung Kong (0001.HK) up 0.6% at HK$127.60, Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016.HK) up 0.8% at HK$124.20 and Sino Land (0083.HK) down 0.3% at HK$13.78.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Apr 11)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 06, 2011 2:08 pm

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DJ MARKET TALK: HK Real Estate Stocks Are Attractive - UBS

1332 [Dow Jones] UBS notes the Hong Kong real estate segment has been the worst-performing major sector in MSCI HK year-to-date, underperforming MSCI HK by 3%, while physical home prices are up 10% year-to-date.

"Real estate earnings' yield relative to physical yield is back above long-term average, suggesting real estate equities are attractive relative to physical property," it notes.

It expects Cheung Kong's (0001.HK) property stub is trading at a 42% discount to NAV, while Henderson Land's (0012.HK) stub, excluding HK & China Gas (0003.HK), is at a 55% discount.

Both stocks look attractive, with Cheung Kong stub's discount is wider than its three-year average of 22% while Henderson stub's discount is in line with its three-year average of 52%.

At midday, Cheung Kong is up 0.5% at HK$130.50 and Henderson Land is up 1.7% at HK$55.85.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Apr 11)

Postby winston » Fri May 20, 2011 4:49 pm

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Hong Kong residential property prices could drop as much as 15 percent if mortgage rates increase 2 percentage points over the next 12 months, according to a brokerage report.


Source: SCMP
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - May 11)

Postby winston » Mon May 30, 2011 9:48 am

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DJ MARKET TALK: HK House Prices Remain On Upward Trend - Haitong

0924 [Dow Jones] Haitong notes HK house prices have surged a substantial 46% over the past two years, prompting the HK government to introduce a series of measures to cool the market that included accelerating the supply of private residential land and introducing a special stamp duty (SSD) in 2010 to curb short-term speculation;

"although short-term speculators and low-holding-power investors have been squeezed out of the market, home prices remain on an upward trend."

According to the government's Land Registry, house prices in the secondary market have surged 9% since December even with the implementation of the SSD. It believes the prevailing low interest rate environment, current tight supply of residential units, solid economic backdrop and continuing China yuan appreciation which inspires the purchasing power of the mainland buyers, are the solid fundamentals that underpin underlying housing demand.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - May 11)

Postby winston » Tue May 31, 2011 6:42 pm

Interest Rates are increasing in HK as there's a shortage of HKD in the system.

A lot of Hong Konger have been changing their HKD into RMB.

However, I think they can only change of a maximum of RMB 20,000 a day only.
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