Olympics - Investment Ideas

Re: HK & China Economic News

Postby LenaHuat » Mon Aug 04, 2008 8:46 am

LenaHuat on 12 May 2008 wrote:I think Justin Lin is far too optimistic abt China post-Olympics.
The CNY snowstorm and now the 7.8 Sichuan earthquake showed that China could have gotten her priorities wrong. Trophy projects take priority over pro-citizenry-welfare projects.
Inflationary pressures are stirring up public wrath.
The much-deflated SSE has also caused much anguish amongst millions of small-time investors.

Personally, I am avoiding the Chinese/HK stock markets until after the Olympics. The ride has been very good so far but things have turned ugly since the beginning of the year.
Please invest with care in the Chinese/HK mart.


Now we are hearing it from the horse's mouth, President Hu is worried abt a swoon in the Chinese economy : http://www.cnbc.com/id/25961007
CNBC wrote:Sustaining rapid growth is China's economic priority, President Hu Jintao said on Friday as an official survey pointed to a swoon in the all-important manufacturing sector.
.......................................
An official survey of manufacturers showed an apparently severe deterioration in the industrial sector last month.
The monthly purchasing managers' index compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing fell to 48.4 from 52.0 in June. It was the first time that the reading had dropped below the boom-bust line of 50 since the survey was launched in 2005.

Chinese factories are facing lots of cost pressures, labor issues and social resistance on environmental issues.
The domestic economy, abt 35% {compared to the US's 70% and Japan's 60%}, is too small to buffer the slow-down in the export economy. Severe re-structuring is taking place. It's not all gloom and doom but the risks are high.
Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. ImageImage**Image**Image@@ImageImageImage
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Re: Olympics - Investment Ideas

Postby winston » Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:29 pm

Games to turn investors on or off China?
By Jason Subler

BEIJING (Reuters) - The Olympic Games that start in Beijing on Friday will probably only enhance China's attractiveness as an investment destination, but there is still plenty that could go wrong to chill sentiment.

Looking to showcase the country's economic achievements, authorities have pulled out all the stops, spending tens of billions of dollars to build infrastructure and clean up the capital's air.

However, a grenade attack which killed 16 policemen in the remote northwest on Monday and protests in Beijing this week have underscored the risk of a turn of events that could spoil the business environment down the road.

"There are already a lot of negative impressions out there, so I think for a lot of visitors and a lot of people seeing what's going to be broadcast that there could be some positive changes," said William Hess, greater China manager for Global Insight in Beijing.

But Hess and other analysts pointed to a number of scenarios that could make things more difficult for companies doing business in China.

For one, should protests against China's policies towards Tibet or human rights spark a serious nationalist backlash, broadcast into living rooms around the world, protectionist voices in Washington and Brussels could gain force.

"I think that kind of imagery would feed those who would be more in the 'red-scare' camp already, so maybe it would help to harden some perceptions of China's rise," Hess said.

Andy Rothman, a strategist with CLSA in Shanghai, said he was primarily concerned about whether authorities would deal with protests in a heavy-handed way.

"Mass arrests that do not result in injuries are likely to have a more subtle, longer-term impact: making it more difficult for mainland companies and the Chinese government's new sovereign fund to invest overseas (and) damaging the image of goods made in China," he wrote in a research report.

Most analysts consider it unlikely, but a serious security incident would probably have long-term implications on the ease of doing business in China.

"If there's a bomb or something serious that goes wrong, I'm afraid they'll just tighten up security like crazy and there will be a lot of negative fallout from that for quite a long time,
" said Ian Stones, a long-time China-based businessman and adviser to the Conference Board.

Should such an attack occur, Stones said China might retain the tighter restrictions on visas it introduced for the Games.

"If security gets so tight, it would definitely slow business down,
" he said.

Stones and others pointed to possible positive outcomes, and business opportunities, from the attention on China's pollution problems.

"This should spur the international community and China's leaders to more aggressive action toward environmental protection and remediation. China deserves credit for being open to outside environmental help, and it remains China's best long-run growth story," Donald Straszheim with Roth Capital Partners in Los Angeles said in a note.

But for many investors in China, their main feeling about the Olympics is that they cannot wait for them to be over, to put an end to the disruptions they have created -- ranging from bans on shipping certain goods and shutdowns of some factories to restrictions on traffic and a clampdown on business visas.

"Everybody's just praying it gets back to normal, because so many sectors have felt downward pressure from the Olympics,"
Stones said.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Olympics - Investment Ideas

Postby winston » Fri Aug 08, 2008 5:07 pm

It's a very jittery market. Any remote small news could trigger a panic.

================================

Bomb threat on China-bound plane

An Air China flight was forced to return to Japan after a bomb threat, just hours ahead of the opening ceremony for the Beijing Olympics, an airport official said.

''Flight 406 had to return after the bomb threat. No one was injured. Once the safety of the airplane is confirmed, the plane will take off soon,'' said Akiko Noguchi, a spokeswoman for Central Japan International Airport.

An e-mail indicated that the threat to the plane bound for Chongqing via Shanghai was intended to disrupt the Beijing Olympics, Kyodo News reported.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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