HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Aug 11)

[LenaHuat]

Hi K
IMHO, it's not time to hike TA. But it's time to add a landed property to your portfolio.

[winston]

Prices in Hong Kong's residential property market can rise as much as 10 percent by the end of this year, according to New World Development (0017) executive director Stewart Leung Chi- kin.

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: HK Property Stocks Dn; May Fall 10% More N/T -DBS

1111 [Dow Jones] HK property stocks mostly lower on profit-taking, with Hang Seng Property Subindex down 1.3% at 25,987.96, after 4.4% rise Monday supported by strong response to Cheung Kong's (0001.HK) Le Prestige launch. Peter Lai at DBS expects further consolidation ahead for HK property stocks after their recent gains, which likely due to hot money flowing into both property, equity markets in HK; tips property plays to fall 10% near-term.

"This (hot money) may not provide sustainable support for stocks of the sector," Lai says. Suggests investors to take profits.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: HK Property Prices To Meet Resistance - Daiwa

1518 [Dow Jones] Daiwa raises base-case forecast for 2009 HK residential-property prices to increase of 25% vs 10% previously, but expects property prices to meet resistance having returned to level just 4%-8% below March 2008 peak.

Still, despite upward NAV revisions for HK developers, thinks current valuations "just fair," would require sustained increase in property prices in 2010 to drive another major re-rating, "we think there are not yet solid fundamentals for this scenario."

Adds, at current valuations, only expects meaningful upside from Henderson Land (0012.HK), MTRC (0066.HK); rates both Outperform, target prices at HK$53.50, HK$28.90 respectively.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

After share prices have doubled to tripled and when the "expert" Analysts starts asking you to buy, it's time to ...

Bank homes in on property by Derek Yiu, The Standard HK

Friday, August 07, 2009

Rising rents and property prices have led Credit Suisse to raise its net asset value estimates for a number of local developers.
The bank said property prices have increased by 21 percent since the beginning of the year and will stay flat for the rest of 2009.

Credit Suisse upgraded Hysan Development (0014), Swire Pacific (0019) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) and Singapore-listed Hongkong Land to "outperform" from "neutral."

Henderson Land Development (0012) was also upgraded to "outperform" as it prepares to launch its Yau Tong residential project The Spectacle.

Henderson will start by selling 20 flats by tomorrow at the earliest, sales general manager Thomas Lam Tat-man said yesterday, adding there is a 50 percent chance that a price list will come out today.

The developer may sell flats in the 32-story building at HK$8,500 per square foot, but prices may rise by 10 percent within two months.

Lam said some potential buyers have shown interest in five big flats on the higher floors, with one offering to pay over HK$12,000 psf. Henderson expects to reap HK$1.4 billion from the 185-unit project.

Cheung Kong (Holdings) (0001) will sell 10 three-bedroom units in Le Prestige at HK$3.93 million each, or HK$3,733 psf, to buyers who pay immediately.

The developer is still keeping a small number of sea-view flats on the lower levels in Block 3.

Cheung Kong has sold over 1,620 of the 1,688 apartments in the Tseung Kwan O project, reaping more than HK$8 billion.

Source: The Standard HK

[winston]

Nine Hong Kong Developers’ Price Targets Raised at J.P. Morgan
By Joshua Fellman

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Nine Hong Kong real estate developers had their share-price targets raised at J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd. on “abundant” liquidity and low interest rates that will prompt an increase in housing prices.

[winston]

Economist Xie Says Hong Kong Property Will Fall When Rates Rise By Dirk Beveridge

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s property market will fall when the U.S. Federal Reserve eventually needs to raise interest rates, former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist Andy Xie said.

Near-zero interest rates by the Fed have encouraged property speculation in Hong Kong, Xie wrote in an opinion piece in the South China Morning Post today. Hong Kong pegs its currency to the U.S. dollar and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority tracks U.S. interest rates.

Xie, now an independent economist, predicted the situation will soon change, writing that when the Fed’s policy rate reaches 5 percent, probably in 2011, Hong Kong’s property prices will be 50 percent lower.

Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

Sweet spot, right ? Low interest rates, Limited Supply and Great Mainland Demand ...

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Property sector manages to ride high on low interest rates, limited supply

Hong Kong's residential property market - having survived the tsunami - is tipped to stay strong and maintain its upside momentum in prices due to low interest rates and limited housing supply, according to market watchers and developers.

"Hong Kong is fortunate in that it has not experienced the excesses in the property sector that we have seen in previous cycles," said veteran property analyst Peter Churchouse, who is also a director of LIM Advisors. As a stimulus measure, the US government has kept interest rates low, prompting Hong Kong banks to follow suit.

( No excesses ? )

Under the low rates, Churchouse estimates local home prices will go up another 20 to 30 percent in the next 18 months. "Whenever we've seen negative real interest rates in Hong Kong, you've had a very strong property market," he said.

Local home prices dipped to a low of HK$3,341 per square foot on average last November after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September.

But prices bounced back 23.9 percent to HK$4,138 psf in August, according to Midland Realty. Global liquidity, especially from the mainland, flowing into the SAR is pushing prices up.

( So are these from leakages ? )

"If you can afford to buy a flat where you plan to live, don't wait," said Shih Wing-ching, chairman of Centaline Property Agency, citing that mainland investors are buying local units aggressively.

( HK$6m can buy you a HK PR now )

Assuming that two agents introduce a Taikoo Shing flat to a Hongkonger and a mainlander, the mainland buyer usually wins.

Henderson Land Development (0012) chairman Lee Shau-kee said last week he expects flat prices to rise 5 percent by the year end on strong housing demand, especially for luxury units.

ALFRED LIU, The Standard HK

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 90914&fc=1

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: Citigroup Likes HK Landlords Over Developers

1330 [Dow Jones] Citigroup likes HK property investors as says valuation more attractive than developers. With expected China, US economic recovery, thinks commercial property rentals should start stabilizing, show rebound from bottom.

With continued contraction of HK land supply, more difficult for developers to expand landbanks to keep stable, not to mention growing, completion volume. Average NAV discount for developers narrowed from 46% at end-08 to 4% currently. Current NAV discount for property investors at 31%, close to historical average.

Recommends selling developers such as Sun Hung Kai (0016.HK), Sino Land (0083.HK). Recommends landlords such as Henderson Land (0012.HK), Wharf (0004.HK).

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Masterpiece price for flat by Derek Yiu, The Standard HK

A flat at The Masterpiece in Tsim Sha Tsui has been sold for HK$30,025 per square foot - a record high for a one- bedroom flat.

A local businessman paid HK$24.5 million for the 816 sq ft apartment for his own use, Centaline Property Agency said yesterday.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 90915&fc=2