HK - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Sep 14)

[kennynah]

this just goes to show that in different market conditions, different approaches to investing is required...clearly, there's no one-size-fits-all approach ... such as "buy and hold" method...

so, the question is then, why would these astutely rich people allow their wealth to dwindle? of cos, if those companies they own aren't making as much money, that's understandable. but many of these tycoons presumably have stock holdings of companies that they do not control. so, why didnt they let these positions go or better still, "invest" the bear market?

i think, here, we should realize that trading/investing business is not easy. it is darn difficult, judging from how these filthy rich saw their money gone fishing...

i suppose, this reality should serve to remind us of our need to remain humble in the face of market forces...

and finally, those money lost in the stock market, is won by some one else.... the stock market is almost an zero sum game...

[winston]

and finally, those money lost in the stock market, is won by some one else.... the stock market is almost an zero sum game...

No, I dont think so. In the stock market, it's not a zero sums game. When the market goes up, everybody makes money and vice versa.

In the Futures Market, it's a zero sums game less commission.

[millionairemind]

March 9, 2009, 4.24 pm (Singapore time)

HK's financial secretary says 'worst is still to come'
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/lat ... 50,00.html?
HONG KONG - Hong Kong's financial secretary John Tsang said on Monday the global economic slowdown would get worse before it got better, as he sought to justify his prudent annual budget.
Mr Tsang said he would have to wait until the middle of this year to have a better grasp of how Hong Kong's economy is going to play out

Mr Tsang said that he had to maintain the government's reserves - which currently stand at around HK$500 billion(US$64 billion) - due to the uncertainties of the global economy.

'We have not seen the bottom. The worst is still to come,' he said, in a talk to the city's business community.

'Some may think I am using scare tactics. I am not.'

With financial giants such as the Royal Bank of Scotland, AIG, and HSBC reporting record losses in their annual results, Mr Tsang said he would have to wait until the middle of this year to have a better grasp of how Hong Kong's economy is going to play out.

'At this time this year, I believe we need to be more pragmatic and more prudent than ever. That's why I do not want to give too much of your hard-earned money too readily and too fast,' he said.

In his budget delivered last month, Mr Tsang said Hong Kong's gross domestic product had shrunk 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter year-on-year, as the key finance and export industries were hit by the global slowdown.

Many analysts had called on Mr Tsang to raid the hefty war chest to stimulate the flagging economy, but he resisted making any huge spending promises.

Hong Kong slipped into recession in the third quarter of 2008, a sharp contrast to the China-inspired boom over the past four years in the former British colony. -- AFP

[millionairemind]

When will we ever see this kind of justice done in Singapore??? Hope sooner rather than later...

Hong Kong Convicts Former BNP Paribas Banker of Insider Trading
By Kelvin Wong

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- A Hong Kong court convicted a former BNP Paribas Peregrine Capital Ltd. employee and four others of insider dealing in what the city’s stock watchdog called a “landmark decision.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=asia

[eauyong]

HSI Falls Below 13,000
20 Mar 2009
Traders Corner

Hong Kong stocks opened up more than 10 points, and they were never higher thereafter as HSI kept sliding throughout the day. The downside deteriorated in the afternoon, and was as much as almost 400 points at one time. HSI closed down 297 points or 2.3% at 12,834, with turnover down to $43.9 billion. Spot month HSI futures closed down 124 points or 1% at 12,879, with 45 points premium to the spot market, and 56,488 contracts were traded. HSCEI closed down 235 points or 3.1% at 7,495.

Asian stocks were mixed. Japan's stock market stopped for holidays; Taiwan stock market closed down 74 points or 1.5% at 4,962; Shanghai A-share index closed at 2,394, up 16 points or 0.7%.

Blue chips:
After China Mobile (941) announced its results, it suffered an increasing selling pressure, which dragged down the performance of blue chips. 30 out of 42 constituent stocks recorded downside. Active buy orders slumped to 48%. Turnover remained at $19.6 billion.

The rights issue of HSBC Holdings (005) had been officially passed in the shareholders' meeting in the UK. Its price dropped after opening high, and finally closed at $41.45, down 0.1%. Another blockbuster, China Mobile (941) performed weakly after announcing its results, and the stock was the major factor for the market's downside. It finally closed at $63.1, down more than 5%.

China Unicom (762) announced that the volume of GSM communications surged nearly 2 times month-on-month, stimulating the price to surge more than 5% at one time, but it closed down 0.1%. China Telecom (728) also dropped nearly 2%.

Merrill Lynch rated Esprit (330) at "Buy" with a target price of $60.60. Esprit rose another 4% today. Other export shares also went up against the market trend. Li & Fung (494) surged 8%, which was the best performer of blue-chips.

Chinese Stocks:

Banks were sliding as CCB (939), ICBC (1398), BoCom(3328), CITIC Bank (998) and CMB (3968) were all down by 5% or more. Insurance stocks fell with the market as PICC P&C (2328) fell 5%, while Ping An (2318) and China Life (2628) were down 4% and 2% respectively.

The slump in US dollar boosted demand for gold and led gold stocks higher. Zijin Mining (2899) and Zhaojin Mining (1818) surged 16% and 17% respectively. Other metal stocks were also up against the market as Jiangxi Copper (358) and Chalco (2600) both rose 2%. However, Maanshan Iron (323) and Chongqing Iron (1053) were falling with the market.

Oil and Petrochemical stocks were mixed. CNOOC (883) advanced with oil price and was up 1% against the market, while PetroChina (857) and Sinopec (386) were down more than 1% and almost 4% respectively as a result of their oil refinery business. Apart from that, oilfield service provider China Oilfield (2883) also rose with the oil price by more than 2%.

Housing stocks were mostly down. Shimao Property (813). Greentown China (3900) and Hopson Dev (754) were falling by 5% or more. Other housing stocks such as China Overseas (688), R&F Properties (2777) and Sino-Ocean Land (3377) recorded a relatively mild fall at 1% to 2%.

Others:

Net profit of Alibaba (1688) rose 25% to RMB1.2 billion last year, but the board did not propose any final dividend. At the same time, Citigroup downgraded the stock to "Sell" and reduced the target price $4.50, dragging its stock price to plummet by more than 12% and closed at $7.18.

ZTE (763)'s net profit rose 33% to nearly RMB1.7 billion. Gross profit margin maintained at 32.5% and earnings per share were RMB 1.24. It proposed a final dividend of RMB0.3 per share, supporting the stock price to stablize and rise nearly 1% against the market.

China Glass (3300) allotted to the senior executives at RMB 0.53 per share to raise RMB24.55 million. Although Moody moved the stock to the negative watch list, the price was unaffected by the negative rating and surged nearly 16%.

OOIL (316)'s net profit dropped dramatically by 89% to $272 million last year. Earnings per share were US$43.5. Profit from continuing operations slumped 50%, and the final dividend was also reduced by more than 60% to just US$4.5 cents. Its stock price collapsed by more than 50% in early tradings, but then the drop slowed down gradually and closed down nearly 2%.

[millionairemind]

April 27, 2009
HK exports fall 21.1%

HONG KONG - HONG Kong exports fell 21.1 percent year-on-year in March, government statistics showed Monday, the latest sign of a severe drop in demand for goods made in southern China.

The value of exports fell to HK$175.5 billion (S$33.9 billion), after a year-on-year decline of 23.0 per cent in February, the Census and Statistics Department said in a statement.

At the same time, the value of imports dropped 22.7 per cent in March to $193.7 billion from a year earlier.

A visible trade deficit of $18.2 billion, equivalent to 9.4 per cent of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in March 2009, the figures showed.

For the first quarter of 2009, the value of exports dropped by 21.9 per cent over the same period in 2008.

Demand for goods dropped sharply from Europe and the United States in March, but exports to Asian countries were also hit. Electrical and telecoms goods were hardest hit over the period, the statement said.

A government spokesman said that 'as the global economy has yet to show signs of recovery, the external trading environment will remain challenging in the coming months.'

Hong Kong is a key export hub for goods made in southern China's factory belt, but demand from the United States and Europe has collapsed in the last six months due to the global slowdown.
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2B ... 69276.html

[mocca_com]

Hong Kong suffers record contraction
By Xi Chen and Reuters in Hong Kong

Published: May 15 2009 14:40 | Last updated: May 15 2009 14:40

Hong Kong’s economy contracted at the fastest rate since the Asian financial crisis in the first three months of this year as exports passing through the territory saw their biggest drop in more than half a century.

The government on Friday predicted gross domestic product would contract by up to 6.5 per cent this year, after announcing the economy had shrunk at an annual rate of 4.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2009.

Total exports dropped 22.7 per cent in the first three months of 2009 compared with the previous year – the biggest drop since 1954. Overall investment fell by 12.6 per cent and private consumption by 5.5 per cent. The unemployment rate also rose to a 38-month high of 5.2 per cent in the first quarter.

Despite an upturn in the stock and property markets in the past two months, the Hong Kong economy has been hard hit by the global financial crisis because of its dependence on exports.

In February, the economy was forecast to contract 2.5 per cent for 2009. Now the government estimates it to drop between 5.5 and 6.5 per cent.

”It is obviously worse than expected. It tells you how a severe global financial crisis can affect a healthy, small and open economy,” said Dong Tao, chief economist at Credit Suisse.

”Will Hong Kong see a further deterioration? It is not up to Hong Kong -- it is up to the rest of the world especially the United States, China and the financial market.”

John Tsang, Hong Kong’s financial secretary, said the government would respond to the downturn by unveiling a new package of stimulus measures in the coming month. But he did not give any clue as to what it might contain and the government came under fire from economists for reacting too late to the economic crisis.

Kevin Lai, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research, said the government should have done more to support the economy.

”There was a lack of fiscal support in Hong Kong compared with anywhere else and this fiscal timidity is showing in the GDP numbers,” Mr Lai said. ”The government has already promised to do something within a month, but I’m afraid it is too little too late. They have missed the window of opportunity there.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

[millionairemind]

Jobless rate soars to three-year high

Hong Kong's jobless rate increased to 5.3 percent in the three months ending April – the highest level in three years.

The figure is up from 5.2 percent in the three months ending March, as the construction, food and manufacturing sectors were hit by a reduction in work, the Census and Statistics Department said.

The number of unemployed increased by around 9,700 to 196,900 over the period, while the workforce increased by around 4,100 to an all-time high of 3,699,000.

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung said the unemployment rate is expected to remain high in the short term as labor market demand remains weak under the deepening impact of the recession.

The outbreak of human swine flu has also emerged as a new source of uncertainty and pressure on the labor market.

''We will continue to adhere to our strategy of stabilizing the financial system, supporting enterprises and preserving employment,'' Cheung said.

Hong Kong's economy is expected to contract by between 5.5 and 6.5 percent this year, as the export and financial hub is buffeted by the global slowdown.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

[winston]

People are buying HK properties thopugh as if prices will fly. BTW, are those transactions real ? The property developers and property agents seems very bullish. If you dont buy now, you may miss the boat. Sure ..

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DJ MARKET TALK: HK Econ's "Real Recovery" Isn't Near - BNP

1052 [Dow Jones] BNP Paribas says HK economy isn't likely to experience "real recovery" before "sustained pickup" in G3 economies expected in 2H10, despite green shoots in China.

"Our analysis revealed that Hong Kong's GDP is five times more responsive to U.S. growth than to China's growth." Adds, HK economy hasn't bottomed yet; April container throughput down 20.2% on year, vs 18.9% fall in March, suggests "very challenging external environment."

[millionairemind]

Recovery signs lift delta export hopes
(05-27 14:21)
Exporters in the Pearl River Delta manufacturing heartland have seen increased orders in recent weeks, a survey has found, in a tentative sign of recovery for the beleaguered sector.

Nearly half of the respondents to a survey of Hong Kong-owned enterprises in the delta by the Federation of Hong Kong Industries said they have seen a gradual increase in orders by the start of May.

''The FHKI is pleased with the signs of economic recovery, and hopes that such a trend can persist,'' said chairman Clement Chan, after the survey of around 100 firms was released.

The survey found businesses welcomed stimulus measures by Beijing and Hong Kong to support businesses in the Guangdong factory belt.

Chan said it is imperative that measures put in place by Beijing and Hong Kong to help manufacturers, including tax incentives and the delay of tougher regulations, should continue until the export sector has fully recovered.

''We hope that signs of economic recovery can persist and become more prominent,'' he said, adding that he hoped to see stronger official data by the second half.

Between December and February 90 percent of export businesses had seen decreasing orders, with total orders dropping by an average of 36 percent compared to the previous year, the survey found.

Mainland exports fell 22.6 percent last month to 91.9 billion yuan (HK$105.3 billion) from a year earlier in the sixth straight monthly decline, according to the latest official data.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE