Japan 01 (May 08 - Dec 09)

[Poles]

same data ....2 diff heading...??


Weak Japan Machinery Orders Outlook Bodes Ill for Economy
JAPAN, ECONOMY, MACHINERY ORDERS, FACTORIES, MANUFACTURERS
Reuters
| 10 Aug 2009 | 12:46 AM ET

Japanese manufacturers forecast a sixth straight quarterly fall in machinery orders in July-September, suggesting they remain wary of expanding their production capacity despite signs of a global economic recovery.

June data showed the biggest rise in more than a year, but the outlook figures suggest capital spending will not contribute much to overall economic growth in the foreseeable future.

With the outlook murky, the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its cautious view on the economy and keep interest rates near zero at least until early 2011, analysts say. No policy change is expected at the bank's two-day rate review that ends on Tuesday.

Manufacturers surveyed by the Cabinet Office forecast that core machinery orders, a highly volatile series seen as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, would fall 8.6 percent in July-September from the previous quarter.

Core orders rose 9.7 percent in June, the first gain in four months and the biggest increase since April 2008, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday.

"Despite the rebound in machinery orders in June, manufacturers' forecast for an 8.6 percent fall in July-September suggests the overall trend in orders is still weak as the utilization rate at factories remains low and corporate profits remain at a low level despite their recovering trend," said Seiji Shiraishi, chief Japan economist at HSBC Securities.

In April-June, core private-sector machinery orders, which exclude those for ships and machinery at electric power firms, fell 4.9 percent from the previous three months.

The yen ticked slightly higher to 97.17 yen per dollar after the data, while the Nikkei 225 share average climbed to its highest in 10 months.

Ten-year JGB futures fell 0.25 point to 137.34.

The numbers suggest the Bank of Japan's view that the economy will improve from the latter half of this year may be a bit too rosy, said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities.

"The stance on capital spending is very cautious due to the weak demand outlook, including foreign demand. I think the Bank of Japan's scenario is relatively positive compared with that of the private sector," she said.

"If final demand continues to be very weak and if it is difficult to see when companies will recover, then it will take a long time for the BOJ to seek an exit strategy, including normalizing interest rates. I think the bank will continue its loose policies for a while."

Japanese companies are expected to keep cutting back on capital expenditure to cope with weak demand both at home and abroad, after the global economy suffered its deepest slump in many decades.

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Although manufacturers have increased output steadily in recent months thanks to a recovery in exports, they are still running their factories at less than 70 percent of capacity.

The huge slack in the economy shows how little companies need to increase spending on equipment and also suggests they may have to continue cutting jobs to make profits.

Japan's economy is expected to have grown 1.0 percent in April-June after four straight quarters of contraction, a Reuters poll showed. But economists expect any recovery to be fragile as uncertainty over the global economic outlook keep companies and households from boosting spending.

Separate data released by the Bank of Japan showed bank lending rose 2.1 percent in July from a year earlier, slowing further from a record gain in January as credit conditions eased.
Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/32352801/

[millionairemind]

same data ....2 diff heading...??


Weak Japan Machinery Orders Outlook Bodes Ill for Economy
JAPAN, ECONOMY, MACHINERY ORDERS, FACTORIES, MANUFACTURERS

I guess depends on how the media wants to spin it.... they are always trying to mess with our perception

[kennynah]

BoJ keeps key Interest Rate unchanged...

[winston]

Japan's big businesses expect recovery by mid-2010

TOKYO: Two thirds of big Japanese companies expect the country's economy to recover by the middle of next year, according to a survey by Kyodo News released Sunday.

Of 108 firms polled, 71 expected a recovery by the middle of 2010. Twelve of them said the economy was already recovering, 15 expected the turn to come in the second half of 2009 and the 44 others in the first half of 2010.

Kyodo attributed the optimistic outlook to improved business results sparked by cost-cutting, rebounds in production and inventory adjustments.

The survey followed a report by the Bank of Japan in mid-July that said the economy should start recovering from the second half of this year.

However, annual gross domestic product was expected to shrink 3.4 per cent in the financial year to March 2010.

The bank also forecast GDP growth of 1.0 per cent for the next financial year.

In the Kyodo survey, conducted late last month, 20 firms said the world's second biggest economy was "recovering slowly" while 51 firms said it was "levelling off despite signs of recovery."

A similar survey conducted between late November and mid-December 2008 showed 98 per cent of respondents thought the economy was deteriorating.

However, the latest poll showed big businesses had persistent concerns.

Eighty-eight firms cited the state of the US and European economies while 64 firms noted sluggish personal consumption and 29 the deteriorating employment situation.

Japan entered recession in the second quarter of 2008 as its heavy dependence on overseas demand left it highly exposed to the global downturn.

The economy shrank at an annualised pace of 14.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, the worst performance on record, but recent government data have indicated that exports and industrial production have begun to rebound.

- AFP/yb

[millionairemind]

Japan's economy leaves recession

Japan has exited recession after recording growth of 0.9% in the April-June quarter, compared to the first.

The economy had shown four consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions.

Recent figures have shown other nations are also coming out of the recession, including Germany, France and Hong Kong, a sign the slowdown is easing

If Japan's latest quarterly rate were maintained for a full year, the economy would grow 3.7%, figures from the Cabinet Office revealed.

Not worsening

Japan is heavily reliant on its exports so growth overseas could bode well for its recovery.

But while the worst might be over, the pace and depth of the recovery will rely on whether Asia can be a "true engine of global growth", the Bank of England's Andrew Sentance said in the Sunday Times.

Mr Sentance, who is part of the bank's rate-setting monetary policy committee, said consumer demand from Asian nations would have to increase to boost growth.

Japan's economy - like other Asian nations - is heavily reliant on exports. The slowdown in the US has hit it hard as American consumers have limited their spending.

China's government has made a point of saying that recovery will have to be based on domestic demand.

In a recent Bank of Japan report, the central bank underlined its cautious view of the economy.

While it said conditions in the world's second-largest economy had stopped worsening, it warned that unemployment would stay high and consumer spending low.

Last month, the bank forecast that Japan's economy would shrink by 3.4% in the 12 months to 31 March 2010.

Beating forecasts

The French and German economies both grew by 0.3% between April and June, bringing to an end recessions in Europe's largest economies that have lasted a year.

Analysts had not expected the data, suggesting recovery could be faster than previously expected.

And Hong Kong recorded growth of 3.3% in the three months from April to June.

That data was also better than had been expected, with the government subsequently increasing its forecast for growth in the whole year.

[winston]

Even Japan is dropping 2% today although Japan is not really an Emerging Market.

I though the economic data was quite encouraging but maybe the stock market has already priced in the improvement ..

[millionairemind]

Aug 26, 2009
Japan exports dip

TOKYO - JAPAN'S exports fell in July from the previous month for the first decline in two months, in a possible sign that the impact of stimulus measures in major economies worldwide is starting to wane.

Overall exports to China fell 26.5 per cent from a year earlier, while exports to the United States fell 39.5 per cent.

Exports to the United States, which have lagged improvements in shipments to Asia, fell at a faster annual rate in July compared to the previous month, as the world's largest economy struggles to pick up steam, while the yen's rise also played a part.
Japan's exports to the fast-growing Chinese economy also declined at a faster annual pace, as a surge in state spending and loan growth failed to mask tepid domestic demand there.

Some overseas stimulus programmes have already expired, and economists' warn that as fiscal support for the global economy runs its course, Japan's exports could slow as weak labour markets in the United States and Europe mean consumers won't be able to pick up the slack.

'Falls in Japanese exports have been moderating in recent months on companies' restocking efforts and government stimulus worldwide. But the July trade data indicate that the recovery momentum is losing steam,' said Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities.

'It is questionable whether exports will continue to recover once the stimulus effect runs out because global final demand may not turn up fully.' On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports dropped 1.3 per cent in July from June, trade data showed on Wednesday, the first drop in two months.

Compared with a year earlier, Japan's exports fell 36.5 per cent in July from a year earlier, a slightly smaller drop than the market forecast.

Economists' median forecast was for a 38.6 per cent fall in July from the same month last year, after a 35.7 per cent annual decline in June.

Altogether, Japan logged a trade surplus of 380.2 billion yen (S$5.83 billion) in July, just short of the median estimate for a 385 billion yen surplus.

Exports of steel to China were weak, said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan strategist at RBS Securities, raising worries about a China-driven recovery scenario. -- REUTERS

[-dol-]

Nippon has been on a general downward slope (by various measures) for almost 2 decades. The Japanese are still very rich by some measures but the public debt is humongous.

How's the chance of the US leading the capitalistic world on the same path as the Rising Sun this time? US public debt is "unprecedented" and will become even more so if they maintain the current stance... now a high chance with Helicopter Ben poised to continue his exploits.

[millionairemind]

It's been 2 decades since the land of the rising sun actually shone brightly in the international arena

August 28, 2009, 4.20 pm (Singapore time)

Japan's jobless rate hits record high 5.7%

TOKYO - Japan's unemployment rate rose to a record high of 5.7 per cent in July as companies shed workers to cope with the fallout from the worst recession in decades, data showed on Friday.

The jobless rate, which increased from 5.4 per cent in June, was worse than the 5.5 per cent that financial markets had expected.

It is unwelcome news for Prime Minister Taro Aso, whose long-ruling party is trailing well behind the opposition in opinion polls ahead of Sunday's general election.

The number of people out of work in July rose by 1.03 million from a year earlier to 3.59 million, increasing for a ninth straight month, the government said.

Official figures last week showed the world's second largest economy returned to positive growth for the first time in five quarters, limping out of recession.

But firms are still seeking to recover from heavy financial losses.

Many Japanese companies, particularly exporters, have moved swiftly to cut jobs and production in response to a slump in demand caused by the global economic downturn.

There were only 42 job offers for every 100 job seekers in July, a record low and down from 43 in June, the labour ministry said.

The weak labour market is weighing on household spending, which fell 2.0 per cent in July from a year earlier, reversing a 0.2 per cent rise in June, separate data showed.

There were also signs of deepening deflation as core consumer prices dropped 2.2 per cent in July from a year earlier - the fastest pace on record. -- AFP

[-dol-]

The Nikkei and Japanese real estate are significantly off their peaks of the early-90s. After almost 2 decades, the general trend has been down.

After almost a decade, Nasdaq is also significantly off its 2000 peak.