Japan 01 (May 08 - Dec 09)

[winston]

Just looked at the chart of the Nikkei. I see the support being breached and a "M" forming. What do u see ?

[LenaHuat]

Have the young Japs given up on their political and economic systems?
They don't seemed to have any worldly cares except fashion and music. I browsed through the shelves of Jap magazines at Kinokuniya and honestly there seems to be little that would nourish the brains.

[Poles]

they are known as Japan's 'herbivore men'
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... ivore.men/

[kennynah]

even in the early 90s... i have come to realise that many working japanese adults openly declare their ignorance about their country's politics... telling me that they have no interest in knowing about their government...and political processes..

some 10 years later...the mentality did not changed much...still very agnostic to who their PM was...they just didnt care

lately... i have not spoken or mingled with japanese to know if they have become more concerned about their political landscape..

Have the young Japs given up on their political and economic systems?
They don't seemed to have any worldly cares except fashion and music. I browsed through the shelves of Jap magazines at Kinokuniya and honestly there seems to be little that would nourish the brains.

[millionairemind]

Isn't it any different for Americans or for that matter, Singaporeans?

[kennynah]

is marlboro tan still around ?

[winston]

Fad or crisis? Japan's 'marriage hunting' craze

AFP - Monday, July 13TOKYO (AFP) - - Dressed to the nines on a balmy summer night, a crowd of young Japanese filled the reception area of a Tokyo wedding hall, a white mansion with Greek columns romantically festooned with fairy lights.

The setting may have seemed a little gaudy, but the 100-odd men and women there, clutching their cocktails and scanning the room, were seriously focused on their goal -- finding the love of their life.

The twenty- to forty-somethings are part of a new fad sweeping Japan: "konkatsu" or "marriage-hunting," a word play on "job hunting" that suggests finding Mr or Mrs Right is a matter of good research and thorough planning.

An expert in the field had some advice for the assembled lonely hearts.

"Try not to make that instant decision," said Helen Fisher, a US anthropologist and special guest at the Match.com party in Tokyo's upmarket Nakameguro district. "Go up and talk to them and find out about them.

"The whole point of this evening is to try to fall in love."

This year Japan has gone konkatsu-crazy, with the trend spawning countless magazine articles, a weekly TV drama and a best-selling book.

A Tokyo shrine now offers konkatsu prayer services, a Hokkaido baseball team has set up special seats for those looking for mates, and a Tokyo ward office arranges dating excursions to restaurants and aquariums.

A lingerie maker has even come up with a konkatsu bra with a ticking clock that can be stopped by inserting an engagement ring.

Japan -- known for its strong work ethic that can squeeze social time, and for its declining birth rates -- seems to be getting its mojo back.

Dating site Match.com said in March it had signed up one million members in the country -- its second largest market after the United States -- and parties like the one in the Greek mansion have become wildly popular.

"I like this system of meeting new people," said a 27-year-old office clerk, one of the 100 guests chosen from almost 300 mostly-male applicants. "I have a hard time approaching a woman with my friends around."

Social observers see a variety of reasons for konkatsu's popularity, including Japan's current recession which may be leading some women to choose marriage over career in a search for financial stability.

"Now I see many women in their 20s looking for a man with a stable job and a steady income," said Toneko Bando, the founder of leading match-making agency PIF, short for the Pay It Forward Love Prepschool.

With the new plan-ahead attitude, many women are also preparing for the next stage -- "sankatsu" or birth hunting -- she said.

"My agency provides services for them, such as fertility check-ups and cooking lessons, so they become healthier for future birth-giving," she said.

"I wouldn't deny a carefree lifestyle to have fun day by day. But especially for women, who constantly face the biological clock ticking before giving birth, they cannot help counting how much time is left."

Japan's government has thrown its support behind konkatsu to boost the birth rate of just 1.37 children per woman, hoping to slow the decline of the ageing population, which is projected to shrink nearly 30 percent by 2055.

An advisory panel to the cabinet last month proposed a 10-point plan to raise the low birth rate, including the promotion of "love and marriage", possibly by organising matchmaking events.

Yoko Itamoto, a marriage counsellor and gender equality expert, said Japan is making an "all-out national effort" for konkatsu, a fashion trend which she said highlights a social crisis.

Traditionally in Japan marriage was a pragmatic social function, in which a woman joined the family of her husband whose job it was to support her and their children, who would then carry on the male family line.

Marriages were typically arranged in a custom known as "omiai," usually organised in a formal setting by the parents or close family members, stereotypically a meddlesome aunt or uncle.

As social change has altered lifestyles, gender roles and social expectations, those of marriageable age have usually searched for their life mate by themselves, but experts say this hasn't worked for everyone.

"If they are an introvert, not too popular or low-key, old-style marriage counselling may still work better," said Bando. "But many people just don't feel about themselves that way."

Marriage rates have fallen sharply between 1975 and 2005 -- from 85 percent to 51 percent for men aged 30 to 34, and from 90 percent to 63 percent for women of the same age, according to census data.

Itamoto said increasing numbers of people are turning to professional help in their quest to find love and perhaps tie the knot.

"Currently some 4,000 match-making agencies do business in Japan, with a total membership of some 620,000," she said. "About half of local governments also give similar matching services, especially in rural farming areas.

"But the successful mating rate through such an agency stays as low as eight percent," she added. "People don't have communication skills good enough to find a partner, no matter how many candidates they meet.

"Konkatsu is not a bad thing," she said. "But we need to study what brought the marriage crisis to the country in the first place

[winston]

Eight Ways to Profit From Japan’s Game-Changing Election By Martin Hutchinson, Money Morning

Investors who pay attention to Japan’s looming election can expect to be well-rewarded for their time.

Normally, we confess, Japanese elections don’t matter much, because the same guys always win. However, this one – set for Aug. 30 – looks different: It may actually bring about the first real change in Japan’s government in 55 years.

That’s important. The opposition has different ideas about what the Japanese economy looks like. That means you should be buying different Japanese stocks, not the well-known names.

http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/07/23/ ... -election/

[winston]

Japan’s Darkest Days Lay Ahead by Ryan Cole

Bet against Japan.

It pains me to say it. I lived in Japan for five years – great years. I love the country, I love the people, I love the cherry blossoms in spring and the festivals in the streets and the poetic dewdrop in my window each morning.

But right now, I hate Japan’s economy. Here’s why:

1. It’s an exporting country, and nobody’s buying.

The American savings rate has gone from 0 to around 5%, and it’s still rising. Remember, this is with U.S. unemployment hovering just under 10%, officially. And, with furloughs and cost-cutting measures, the average work-week for the “fully employed” has fallen to 33 hours – the lowest number on record. So a 5% savings rate of a markedly smaller income pie, equals the collapse of disposable income spending.

That fact can be seen in the U.S. trade deficit – which was only $25.96 billion in May, the lowest number since 1999 (and less than half the deficit at its peak). That entire imbalance could be erased if we stopped buying foreign oil – but that’s not happening anytime soon. Instead, Americans are delaying purchases of things like LCDs, new appliances, new cars – all the things Japan sells us.

Of course, China became Japan’s largest trade partner during the past decade – passing the U.S. for good in 2007. But China simply doesn’t have the demand to buoy Japan’s flagging exports. In fact, China is closing factories, and the long migration of countyside peasants to the cities – and middle-class status – has reversed. Young workers who’ve lost their jobs are returning to their ancestral homes, where rent is cheap or free. They aren’t buying Blu-Ray players or new TVs anymore – at least, certainly not Japan’s expensive name brands.

2. The economy hasn’t been healthy for years

By now, most know that Japan’s ‘lost decade’ never really ended. They’ve been talking about ‘green shoots’ for years, but Japan’s GDP growth has, in truth, just been sputtering along, occasionally growing by up to 3%, but usually flat or contracting.

Japan isn’t like the outside world imagines. There are tent cities set up throughout Osaka, the industrial capitol. Thousands live in makeshift huts under bridges in western Japan. This despite the fact that, contrary to popular belief, rents in cities like Kyoto are cheaper than in American equivalents like Boston (Tokyo is another world). And despite the fact Japan has low unemployment (5.2%). Japan is sick.

The IMF recently projected Japan’s GDP to sink 6% this year. Instead, Japan’s GDP shrank at a 14.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2009.

There are a number of government programs attempting to stimulate consumption, and some are showing modest results. A tax rebate of $125, and economic encouragement for consumers to buy newer, more energy efficient products, both have brought on a bit of spending.

Meanwhile, factories are increasing production slightly, in hopes that some of China’s $586 billion stimulus will find its way to Japanese companies.

But those are exactly the sort of ‘green shoots’ that have been leading economists astray for years. Don’t be fooled – Japan went through its housing bust 20 years ago, and still hasn’t fully recovered, today.

3. Japan’s a fiscal mess

Many economists worry that the U.S. debt will soon reach 100% of GDP, perhaps as soon as 2010. 100% is one of those magic economic numbers – not only is it nice and round, but at that level, interest payments become a crushing burden. It’s hard to afford anything beyond the servicing of the debt.

In Japan, government debt is over 200%. It will be around 225% by the end of next year. The central bank has long been paralyzed – with interest rates reduced to 0% many years ago, and every trick tried and failed already.

The government has cast about for some good response to the current crisis, and come up empty. That, in large part, is the reason Japan is now going through a political crisis.

4. Who’s the Leader?

Last week, Japan’s embattled Prime Minister, Taro Aso, received a stunning blow. His party, the LDP – the ruling party of Japan for the past 50 years, save a few months in the ‘90s – lost local Tokyo elections badly.

They’d held the majority in Tokyo for 40 years. No one expected this result – and it’s being viewed as a condemnation of Aso and his party.

Amid calls for his head from enemies and allies alike, the gaffe-prone Aso has dissolved the Japanese parliament and called for elections on August 30. Should he lose – and, with 20% approval ratings, he just might, despite the formidable strength of the LDP – Japan will see new leadership for the first time in nearly a decade. And, again, that brief interlude in the ‘90s hardly counts.

If there’s one thing the markets hate, it’s uncertainty. And this election is the most uncertain Japan has seen in a very long time.

Add everything together, and you’ve got a country that has a rough few months in front of it, if not years. My recommendation – short Japan through August. I recommend the Proshares Ultrashort MSCI Japan Index (NYSE: EWV), which moves at twice the inverse of the regular MSCI Japan index.

After the election, the green shoots and positive news may make opinion – especially if the DPJ carries the day and institutes a variety of social programs. I’d exit the position before then. But for the time being, a global recession, depressed sales, crushing debt, and political uncertainty should be enough to guarantee Japan’s indices suffer.

[kennynah]

It’s an exporting country, and nobody’s buying.

to me, the author is not being unbias in his view regarding this point above.

besides Brunei...which country, on planet earth, is not an export oriented country?