Japan 01 (May 08 - Dec 09)

[winston]

Who's buying their goods ? The Chinese ?

Tokyo sees crisis nearing bottom

Japan's government yesterday raised its assessment of the country's economy for the first time in three years, saying the pace of worsening is slowing as exports and industrial output are nearing bottom.

Optimism was further boosted when a key measure of German business sentiment showed a rise in May.

Tokyo's revision followed an upbeat view last week from the Bank of Japan, which also raised its assessment of the economy, saying a rebound in global demand could mean last quarter's record 4 percent contraction was the worst of the recession. Previously, it had said the economy was worsening rapidly.

The government also raised its view on bankruptcies and public investment as the rise in bankruptcies has moderated and its stimulus spending has boosted contracts for public works.

German think-tank Ifo's business climate index, based on a poll of 7,000 firms, rose to 84.2 in May from 83.7 in April but below a consensus forecast for 85.

"This is a further clear signal that the German economy's tailspin has ended. The recession has lost its velocity. It could even be over by the autumn," Commerzbank economist Joerg Kraemer said. "No one should overestimate the strength of the upturn. It will be an expansion without any real power."

European Central Bank governing council member and German Bundesbank president Axel Weber said there were growing signs the economic decline in Germany and euro zone is ebbing. But those signs are sporadic and should not be overplayed, although the impact of government stimulus programs will hopefully build through the rest of the year, he said.

"There is definitely hope that the euro zone economy will gradually stabilize in the later part of 2009."

In the United States, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates near zero for a while yet, Fed vice chairman Donald Kohn said.

"The economy is only now beginning to show signs that it might be stabilizing, and the upturn, when it begins, is likely to be gradual amid the balance sheet repair of financial intermediaries and households." REUTERS

[winston]

Topix’s Valuation Masks Falling Profits During Rally (Update2) By Patrick Rial and Michael Tsang

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest rally in the Topix index in 56 years has turned Japanese stocks into the world’s most expensive equities. Not for long, say hedge-fund managers betting the recession will prevent earnings from rebounding.

Bridgewater Associates Inc., Highbridge Capital Management LLC and Farallon Capital Management LLC, which together oversee almost $80 billion, increased bets against Japanese companies in the past three months, filings to the Tokyo Stock Exchange show. The Topix climbed 30 percent in the same period, the most since 1953, and shares in the index trade at an average 41.2 times estimated earnings, the highest level among the 40 largest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=invest

[millionairemind]

Japan Economy Shrank 14.2% Last Quarter on Exports (Update2)
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By Jason Clenfield

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy shrank less than the government initially estimated as business investment and inventories fell at a slower pace.

Gross domestic product shrank at a record 14.2 percent annual pace in the three months ended March 31, less than the 15.2 percent reported last month, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 15 percent contraction.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... cluzVNj_QM

[winston]

On CNBC:_

Ray Barros says that Japan may trend downwards to about 8500 ...

[kennynah]

kimochi.................

[millionairemind]

No green shoots for the 2nd largest economy in the world???

Japan’s Trade Slump Deepens as Exports Tumble 41% (Update1)
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By Jason Clenfield

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports fell at a faster pace in May, extending the nation’s deepest trade slump since World War II.

Shipments abroad dropped 40.9 percent from a year earlier, more than April’s 39.1 percent decline, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of economists surveyed was for a 39.3 percent decrease. From a month earlier, exports fell 0.3 percent, the first deterioration since February.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 1Vh_D1iYz8

[winston]

No green shoots for the 2nd largest economy in the world???

No need to worry. China will save the world ..

[millionairemind]

Published July 3, 2009

Japan's new gender benders add to its economic woes By WILLIAM PESEK JR

A QUESTION is cropping up more and more on the streets of Tokyo: Male or female? It's not an exaggeration to point out that many young Japanese men are looking a bit ladylike. The phenomenon is an obsession on television talk shows, and it could have bigger implications for Asia's largest economy than many appreciate, few of them good.

Social commentator Maki Fukasawa in 2006 coined the word 'herbivores', or grass-eating men. It's not meant to insult vegetarians, but to explain a growing subculture of heterosexual males in their 20s and 30s who are less interested in careers than their salaried fathers and ambivalent to sex and marriage.

If you think this story should be on the fashion pages, not the business ones, you are mistaken. The feminisation of the ranks of tomorrow's corporate samurais connects directly with two of Japan's main economic problems: A declining birthrate and negligible consumption. This issue doesn't fit neatly into the election cycle that is beginning in an economy sinking back into deflation.

It's not something Prime Minister Taro Aso can easily pontificate about and address in a direct way. Nor is it a phenomenon that investors are likely to grasp as they assess Japan's prospects. Yet the blurring of gender identities says lots about so many challenges Japan faces - ones that are being actively ignored by the government.

As many as two-thirds of Japanese men between the ages of 20 and 34 would classify at least partly as herbivore men, according to Megumi Ushikubo, author of the bestselling Herbivorous Ladylike Men Are Changing Japan. And, she argues, their mindset is a long way from the stereotypes about the relentless and workaholic Japanese men of the last century. Rather than joining one company for life, drinking heavily with colleagues and chasing women, herbivores are less into work and dating than clothes and cosmetics. They often go shopping with their mothers, wear hairclips and sit down on the toilet when they pee. Tokyo-based company WishRoom is selling bras for men, some middle-aged salarymen.

Philosophising about the explosion of straight, effeminate men more interested in their appearance than starting a family has become a cottage industry. To many observers, it's a rebellion against the lives that their fathers led and disillusionment from growing up in post-bubble Japan. It's also a response to an increasingly assertive female population. One self-described herbivore, named Daisuke, told me in Osaka that he feels let down by Japan Inc. Daisuke's father worked for a major trading firm 12 hours a day and often on weekends. His father was rewarded for his hard work; Daisuke's generation expects a very different income trajectory.

Japanese older than 35 came of age during the pre-1990 bubble years and many enjoyed a period of abundant cash, unbridled opportunity and national pride. The experience of the under-35 crowd is a marked contrast. The deflation of the 1990s and early 2000s crimped living standards and ushered in historic changes to the lifetime-employment system.

Those people with 'non-regular' jobs make up almost 40 per cent of the labour force. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says Japanese employers have more incentive to hire such workers.

The upshot will be less consumption amid worsening demographic and debt trends. The population is rapidly ageing, while the birthrate is stagnant. The debt-to-GDP ratio is zooming towards 200 per cent. Japan may even be on the verge of its own sub-prime-mortgage crisis. Paying off all that debt and remaining competitive amid China's rise will rest on the shoulders of the very demographic wallowing in disillusionment. Japan already underutilises its female workforce. Now, it appears many Japanese men under 35 are actively underutilising themselves.

Commentators often harp on the birthrate implications. As more women delay motherhood, many men of marrying age appear less interested in sex than past generations. Many point to a steady decline in condom sales and surveys that show some young men prefer pornography, cyber-sex and sex toys to the real thing. It may just accelerate the decline in Japan's workforce.

Economic stagnation is manifesting itself in unexpected ways when it comes to male behaviour, and the phenomenon may have a silver lining or two. One could be a reduction in 'karoshi', or death from overwork. The alternative male lifestyle also could encourage some of the more than 30,000 Japanese who commit suicide each year to think twice. The key is for the government to take steps to ensure the vibrancy of Japan's workforce and society. Here, it's hard to find much good news to report. If only the state of Japan's politics was as pretty as its young men. -- Bloomberg

[millionairemind]

No green shoots in Japan?? The Japs not drinking from the kool-aid?

Japan Machine Orders Unexpectedly Fall, Exports Slump (Update1)
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By Jason Clenfield and Keiko Ujikane


July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machine orders unexpectedly fell for a third month and the current-account surplus narrowed because of plunging exports, stoking concern that the economy will struggle to emerge from its worst postwar recession.

Orders, an indicator of spending by companies in the next three to six months, declined 3 percent in May from April, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The current-account excess shrank 34.3 percent from a year ago, the Finance Ministry said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... i_y3xo3ht8

[kennynah]

i think better depend on China to boost regional economic progress in the years ahead...