HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Aug 11)

[winston]

I think Centaline is a Real Estate Agency

[Aspellian]

I think Centaline is a Real Estate Agency

its thus similar to brokers issuing buy/sell/hold calls to encourage churning. if along the way you have capital gains, good for you. if you timed it wrong and need to sell at a loss, your property agents / stock brokers can still earn your commissions.

marketplace at work. buy what you need with what you have at the right price and time.

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: HK Luxury Property Segment May Run Up Again - RBS

1035 [Dow Jones] RBS notes HKMA warned about overly attractive mortgage terms in HK three times in last 5 months, as liquidity, easy credit continued to sustain market sentiment; "we are cautious on the sector despite no near-term downside risks, as we believe valuations fully reflect the fundamentals."

Notes if easy liquidity, credit for mainland, local investors sustain in 2010, prices of HK luxury properties may enjoy another bull run this year; tips HK luxury segment (HK$8,000-HK$12,000 per sq ft) may get a boost in February during bonus season for financial-services sector.

But beyond that, eyes no positive triggers for HK property stocks; regardless of credit conditions, tips mass-market residential segment can post only 5% price growth this year due to lack of new economic drivers. Rates HK real estate sector at Neutral. Hang Seng Property Subindex down 0.5% at 28,406.32.

Source: Dow Jones Newsiwre

[winston]

Up 29% is not a bubble ? And real estate is probably not included in their measure of inflation ..

Hong Kong Can’t See ‘Obvious Bubble’ in Home Market (Update1) By Sophie Leung and Chia-Peck Wong

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong sees no “obvious bubble” in the property market, Chief Executive Donald Tsang said today, two months after warning asset prices in the city were rising to levels out of sync with economic fundamentals.

“Property is a sensitive asset that we pay special attention to,” Tsang said in a question-and-answer session with lawmakers. “Up till now, we can’t see an obvious bubble.”

Hong Kong home prices rose 29 percent last year, and Tsang said he recognized some people are finding it difficult to buy homes. The price advance sparked a public outcry and prompted the International Monetary Fund to say that the city should consider tightening lending rules to prevent rapid credit growth and asset-price gains from damaging the economy.

Hong Kong’s government took measures to cool the market and home sales in Hong Kong slid 9 percent to HK$34.7 billion ($4.47 billion) in December from November, reaching their lowest in eight months, according to Jan. 5 figures from the Land Registry. That is still almost double December 2008 levels.

Tsang said Nov. 13 that asset prices in cities including Hong Kong and Singapore are “going up to levels that are incompatible or inconsistent with the economic fundamentals.”

Mainland Buyers

The price gains in Hong Kong’s home market beat those in Tokyo, London and New York as record-low mortgage costs and buying by rich mainland Chinese stoked demand. Some of Hong Kong’s biggest developers, including Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. and Hang Lung Properties Ltd. are keeping a bullish outlook on the market even as the government took several steps late last year to cool the market.

In October, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority tightened down-payment requirements for luxury homes for the first time since 1991. On the same day, the Hong Kong Mortgage Corp., a government-backed home-loan insurer, said it would limit coverage and suspend insurance for rental properties.

A month later, the government required developers to provide more transparency about the square footage of apartments they are selling before finishing, as well as better information on floor numbering.

December’s decline in home sales on a monthly basis may not be a result of the government’s measures, Jeff Yau, an analyst at DBS Vickers Hong Kong Ltd., said by phone today.

“It’s natural for the market to consolidate after having risen for a few months; the drop doesn’t mean that it’s because of the government’s measures,” he said, adding there is no “serious bubble” in the property market.

Limited supply growth, together with abundant liquidity, may lift home prices by between 5 percent and 10 percent this year, Yau said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 9l3.wCW0.w

[winston]

HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL

Hong Kong property prices are expected to rise about 20 percent in the first half of 2010 and the market will become volatile in the second half, said Centaline Group chairman Shih Wing-ching.

One say up, one say down ....


DJ MARKET TALK: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices To Fall -MS

1106 [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley tips HK residential property prices should start falling because mainlanders' direct liquidity overflow carried into HK property market could be reduced significantly in 2010 because of tightening by PBOC.

( Why ? Is it because there's no more leakages ? )

Notes, after CNY's 20-month de facto peg to both HKD and USD, HKD's recent move indicate that it may have started a journey of weakening vs CNY, which will make HKD-denominated assets, such as local residential property, less attractive for mainland buyers.

( So they are buying HK Properties because they can see the currency trend ? )

"We believe China's start of moderate tightening marks a turning point for the Hong Kong residential property market, which has benefited significantly from the Chinese liquidity outflow until now." Hang Seng Property Subindex down 2.8% at 25,190.08.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Time to buy your HK Investment Property !


DJ MARKET TALK: Fears On Possible HK Housing Bubble Overdone -GS

1104 [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs says concerns on potential HK housing bubble overdone. Notes, "We think housing bubble concerns are premature and developer stocks' weakness is unwarranted."

Says unlike previous, mid-90s bubble, mortgage loan growth lagging property price this time. Measures of speculative activities, affordability, cost of carry are healthy.

Expects accelerating job creation to drive next leg of residential price appreciation. Keeps Attractive view on HK property sector.

Top picks are Buy-rated Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK), Sino Land (0083.HK), Kerry Properties (0683.HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016.HK).

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: Developers Lag But Unjustified By Fundamentals-GC

1124 [Dow Jones] HK developers lag broad market rebound, with property sub-index flat vs HSI +0.9%. Had been lots of discussion if stock investors or home buyers have right view on sector given recent sharp correction in shares of local developers, while physical property market much more resilient.

GuocoCapital believes fundamentals of HK residential market remain positive due to tight supply, low vacancy, high rental yield, rising household formation, rising household income, restrictive land supply policy, growing investment demand from mainlanders, thus "the underperformance of Hong Kong property stocks is unjustified in terms of fundamentals," with sector now trading at average 24% NAV discount.

Has sector Overweight call, top picks are Cheung Kong (0001.HK), SHK Properties (0016.HK), Wharf (0004.HK), tips average upside of 20% for shares over next 6-12 months

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

- Cashed-up mainlanders snapped up almost one in five luxury flats sold in Hong Kong last year, a sign of their growing economic might in the city.


Source: SCMP

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: Drastic Property Measures Unlikely In HK Budget

0854 [Dow Jones] HK Financial Secretary Tsang's 2010-11 budget speech today unlikely to contain measures to affect HSI in big way. With HK's economy poised to return to growth this year, Tsang will likely include one-off measures to support city's low-income groups, sweeteners for middle-income group such as income-tax rebates.

Still, for equity investors, focus will be on any likely government measures aimed to cool red-hot HK property market, which some believe entering bubble stage; such measures may include raising stamp duty for luxury flats, tweaking land application system to allow more flexible land auctions, but "I don't believe there will be anything too drastic," says Castor Pang of Cinda International, as anything major, such as dramatically increasing land supply, would risk causing property prices to fall too much, a risk government wouldn't want to take given economic recovery still fragile.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[millionairemind]

Feb 24, 2010
HK ups tax on luxury flats

Average housing prices in Hong Kong have risen nearly 30 per cent since the first quarter of last year, sparking concerns that it faces a higher risk of a bubble forming than the rest of Asia. -- ST PHOTO: STEPHANIE YEOW

HONG KONG - HONG Kong said on Wednesday that it will introduce a series of measures to cool the overheating property market, including increasing residential land supply and stamp duty for luxury flats.

The city's financial secretary John Tsang said in his annual budget speech that the government was concerned that the recent property frenzy, supported by a massive inflow of funds exceeding HK$640 billion (S$114 billion), would affect the stability of the economy.

'If capital flows were to reverse or interest rates rebound, asset prices would become more volatile. This in turn may affect the stability of our financial system and the recovery of the real economy,' he said.

To reduce the risk of speculation in the luxury market, the stamp duty for sales of properties valued more than HK$20 million Hong Kong dollars will be raised from 3.75 per cent to 4.25 per cent beginning April, he said.

Buyers of these flats would no longer be allowed to defer payment of stamp duty. The measure could be extended if excessive speculation was detected in the trading of less expensive properties, he said. Mr Tsang said the government would also strive to increase residential land supply, with plans to auction several urban residential sites in the next two years if market conditions allow, he said.

The financial secretary also pledged to prevent excessive expansion in mortgage lending. He said he would ask banks to take further steps to ensure prudent screening of mortgage loan applications if necessary. -- AFP