HK - Housing 01 (May 08 - Aug 11)

[winston]

Not vested.

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DJ MARKET TALK: HK Developers Weak; But May Be Chance To Buy -UOB

1053 [Dow Jones] Most HK developer stocks correcting significantly for second straight session, with Henderson Land (0012.HK), SHK Properties (0016.HK), New World Development (0017.HK), Sino Land (0083.HK) each falling at least 3% vs HSI down 1.5%, higher-beta Midland (1200.HK) off 5.3% at HK$7.09, on concerns of further government measures to try to cool property market, after HKMA cut ceiling on mortgages for luxurious properties.

Still, such measure may prove futile, according to UOB KayHian; tips "mild and temporary impact" as residential prices supported by "unprecedented liquidity inflow," undervalued HKD, tips share price weakness presents buying opportunity.

House's top Buys remain Sino Land, NWD, SHKP

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: HK Developers Down But Not Yet Time To Sell - CS

1138 [Dow Jones] Four reasons not to sell HK property stocks just yet, says Credit Suisse:

First, there is still a mismatch between Centaline physical property prices which now at 2007 highs when P/B of property stocks was 1.65X vs 1.17X now.

Second, HK CPI just turned positive, house economists expect further rises on rising rental costs, improvement in employment conditions.

Third, CS expects further USD weakness, which highly correlated with HK property prices gain;

Finally, believes U.S Fed will be one of last central banks to raise interest rates, HK property benefits from that. Property subindex now down 3.4% vs HSI down 1.7%, as developers correcting heavily for second day, on concerns of likely more government measures to cool down property market.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Maket will continue on it's trend when there's skeptism ..

DJ MARKET TALK:HK Developers Down;Sector To "Cool Down A Bit"-UOB

1203 [Dow Jones] HK property stocks lag for second day, with property subindex down 2.1% vs HSI down 1.6%, as government intervention fears gripping investors. Sino Land (0083.HK), which has highest beta among blue chip developers, down 3.7% at HK$14.94, adding to 5.4% fall yesterday.

Still, UOB KayHian's Steven Leung only expects physical property market to "cool down a bit," huge downside unlikely due to low interest rate, influx of hot money. "More importantly, there have been lots of pending home buyers (not speculators) waiting for more than 10% retreat to buy," Leung says.

In near term, sector likely to stabilize after 2-day selloff; further movement hinges on whether government spells out specific measures, also newsflow on physical market activities

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[millionairemind]

November 2, 2009, 3.23 pm (Singapore time)

HK doesn't want 'huge property bubble': Tsang

HONG KONG - Hong Kong's move to tighten regulations on mortgage lending last month showed the government wants to avoid a big property bubble, Hong Kong chief executive Donald Tsang said on Monday.

'We do not want to see a huge property bubble developing in Hong Kong,' Mr Tsang told a business lunch. He said the government had tools available to stabilise the market but did not give details except to say any action would be motivated by a need for stability, transparency and smooth market operations.

Prices of mass market residential property have surged more than 20 per cent this year, despite the economic downturn, while luxury property prices have soared more than 40 per cent, benefiting from excess liquidity globally and an influx of cash from newly-rich mainland Chinese.

Mr Tsang, however, said that the current surge in prices exhibited far fewer signs of speculative behaviour than a previous property market bubble in 1997 which burst amid the Asian financial crisis.

Last month, he said the government, which sells land by auction, could make more available for residential property development.

On Monday, he said tighter mortgage restrictions, introduced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the city's central bank, last month showed the government wanted to avoid a bubble.

The HKMA cut the mortgage limit on property worth HK$20 million (US$2.6 million) or more to 60 per cent of the property's value from 70 per cent. For properties below that, the 70 per cent ratio remains but the HKMA capped the maximum loan amount at HK$12 million.

HKMA chief executive Norman Chan said at the time that it was difficult to tell if there was a property bubble.

Property transactions have fallen in the past week since the HKMA imposed the tighter mortgage restrictions on Oct 23, real estate agents said. However, many mainland Chinese buyers of luxury property in the city buy with cash, so mortgage measures might not calm the luxury sector, analysts said.

Financial secretary John Tsang met last week with the city's property developers to express the government's concern about sharply rising property prices.

Developers, however, say the government should release land at more reasonable prices, arguing that plots proposed for auction by the government in the past couple of years have been priced too high. Before a site can be put to auction, a developer has to agree to pay 80 per cent of the site's recommended price which is set by the government. -- REUTERS

[millionairemind]

Hong Kong's property market
Flat out

Nov 5th 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
A boom gathers momentum

HAVING seen the damage caused by property bubbles, Hong Kong officials are determined not to have a repeat on their own patch. Last month the territory’s de facto central bank pushed banks into increasing the amount of cash they demand of homebuyers. John Tsang, Hong Kong’s usually tepid financial secretary, called in big developers to warn of government intervention if the housing market became “unfair” or “unhealthy”. On November 2nd the territory’s chief executive, Donald Tsang, vowed to cool prices.

The mounting disquiet reflects a huge jump in the price of property, particularly luxury flats. Statistics compiled by CB Richard Ellis, an estate agent, show that prices of high-end flats have risen by 40% since January, and are now just 13% below their 2008 pre-crisis peak. Some are once again priced at record levels. One flat, at 39 Conduit Road, was reported by the developer to have sold in October for HK$71,000 ($9,200) per square foot. The spike in flat sales has propelled shares in property companies higher, too. That, in turn, has prompted a flood of primary and secondary offerings in property-related shares.

The government’s warnings may be having an impact. Sale and purchase agreements in the territory fell by 24% month on month in October (though they were still up by 97% year on year). But many flats have been pulled off the market in anticipation of even higher prices, says Diana Lilauwala of At Home, a broker whose business finding homes for expats has been hit by a sudden paucity of supply.

Unlike in 2008, current prices have little to do with expats and everything to do with local and, especially, mainland buyers. The government’s restrictions on leverage in property transactions may not help deter these customers. Some of them require mortgages—the percentage of mainland borrowers in Hong Kong has steadily risen over the past three years—but interest rates are low and many are apparently willing to pay cash. According to data from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the amount of money approved for mortgages has been declining in recent months even as prices have been going up.

Surging prices have sparked criticism in the local press about the affordability of housing in Hong Kong. They have also put a spotlight on developers’ selling practices. The flat at 39 Conduit Road officially occupies the 68th floor, a lucky number for Chinese people, but that is only because 42 other floors were left out of the building’s numbering system. (The one just above it is on the “88th” floor, an even more auspicious number). Papers are filled with stories about tricks used to inflate the reported size of flats, in many cases to a multiple of the actual living space.

Like this oso can???

Most important, the property boom has increased scrutiny of the way the government controls land sales in Hong Kong. The annual production of new flats has been declining for years. In its yearly report on the territory, released on November 3rd, the IMF welcomed hints that the government might release more land for development. But the acquisition of developable plots is largely left to a few companies with lots of pricing power. More competition is needed, as well as more land.
(A good read on this small group controlling vast estates in Asia is The Asian GodFather")

[winston]

Hong Kong Tightens Real-Estate-Marketing Restrictions (Update2)
By Chia-Peck Wong and Sophie Leung

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong plans to tighten rules on marketing of uncompleted apartments, responding to concerns that misleading sales tactics by property developers have contributed to a surge in prices this year.

The measures will require developers to provide more transparency about the square footage of apartments they are selling before finishing, as well as better information on floor numbering, the Transport and Housing Bureau said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... kSkbBjlNSM

[winston]

And would the fall-out from "The Palms" in Dubai be affecting your investment property in HK ?

[winston]

Not vested. And after rising sharply in a short time, the "experts" tells you that it can continue to go up...

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DJ MARKET TALK: BNP Tips HK Home Prices To Rise Over Next 2 Years

0924 [Dow Jones] While policy concerns have hit HK property transactions recently, global liquidity still an overwhelming factor, BNP Paribas says.

"Fundamentals for the mid-end market remain healthy in terms of affordability and rental yields." Notes, very high-end segment and certain districts seem more stretched, but in buoyant environment, BNP expects buyers' demand to shift to mid-end or districts that have been laggards.

Tips HK residential prices to rise 20%-25% for high-end and 30%-35% for mid-market over next 24 months.

While property developers broadly trading at mid-cycle valuations, tips sector won't do worse than go sideways, as past cycles suggest. But adds, if property-price surge comes sooner-than-expected, sector is capable of trading 30%-40% above current valuations.

Top picks are Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016.HK), Sino Land (0083.HK) and Henderson (0012.HK). Hang Seng Property Subindex ended down 1.1% at 27,441 Thursday

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL

Hong Kong property prices are expected to rise about 20 percent in the first half of 2010 and the market will become volatile in the second half, said Centaline Group chairman Shih Wing-ching.

[Aspellian]

HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL

Hong Kong property prices are expected to rise about 20 percent in the first half of 2010 and the market will become volatile in the second half, said Centaline Group chairman Shih Wing-ching.

Its really scary when everyone starts to make bold predictions of market prices. its like when oil prices >US$140/BBL and trending up, all the oil experts start predicting US$200/bbl or even more and swearing that high prices are here to stay.

now hearing in lots of places of predictions of property, shares, economy and everything else going higher and higher!!

it is not easy to keep a balance views among all these noise... no wonder Buffet stays in Ohama.