Asia - Economic Data & News 01 (Jun 08 - Jun 16)

[millionairemind]

Is this the contrarian signal for a market top??

Published August 19, 2009

Asian investors move away from safe funds
Attention has turned to direct stock, bond investment, says Lipper report

By JAMIE LEE


ASIAN investors are exiting safe haven funds as risk appetite grows.

Point-blank: Singapore - which makes up 3.5% of market share of total assets in the region - posted net outflows of US$4.8b in the second quarter

With the massive redemptions in the second quarter, net inflows into funds across Asia slipped to just under US$3 billion, down nearly 90 per cent from US$26 billion three months ago, data from Lipper, a Thomson Reuters company, showed.

Investors 'displayed some reticence to return to funds despite the strong bounce in local indices in the second quarter', the Lipper report noted.

It added that these investors are moving away from 'safe but generally unrewarding money market products'.

'Having been the sector of choice a year ago, and even in the first quarter, risk appetite steadily improved during the quarter, leaving liquidity funds in the red,' the report added.

This translated to redemptions of US$11 billion, mostly in India, China and South Korea.

With a buoyant stock market in the second quarter, funds faced competition from investment opportunities in securities.

'Investors in many Asian markets like to trade and with indices on the rise, attention seems to have turned to direct stock and bond investment,' said the Lipper report.

Singapore - which makes up 3.5 per cent of market share of total assets in the region - posted net outflows of US$4.8 billion in the second quarter, with long-term funds closing the quarter with redemptions.

India posted the strongest volumes in the second quarter, with net inflows totalling about US$16 billion.

This was despite a final month in the red as investors sold out of their money market and bond holdings.

The second strongest market was Japan, which registered a net inflow of US$7.5 billion, thanks to solid fund flows across all long term asset classes other than equities.

China posted a second quarter of redemptions.

Net outflow from the bellwether stood at a hefty US$7.8 billion though this was still lower than the redemptions posted in the first quarter.

With the heavy trading interest in the Chinese stock exchanges, equity volumes rose to US$3 billion, its highest level since 2007.

Top loser was South Korea, which was 'in the dumps' with redemptions of US$11 billion in the second quarter.

'The problem was in the growing exit from money market funds,' said the Lipper report. 'Some was captured by bond funds, but most seems to have been mopped up by record corporate bond issues.'

Japan ranks top in terms of market share of assets, holding about 24 per cent of the Asian asset pie. This is followed closely by China and Australia, with each holding 21 per cent.

In the latest quarter, 396 new funds were launched, posting net inflows of US$30 billion.

The inflow is double of that in the first quarter, contributed by the 340 new funds set up in that period.

[millionairemind]

All talk.. no action.. Pointless.. and unfortunately, the sick man of Asia can't do anything much...

Aug 19, 2009
Indonesia tight-lipped on haze
INDONESIA appeared to bat away offers from other Southeast Asian countries to help stop haze pollution on Wednesday, leaving the region facing worsening skies as a result of a brewing El Nino weather pattern.

Worried about the potential impact, environment ministers of the region met on Wednesday in Singapore to discuss ways to mitigate the haze, which cost over US$9 billion (S$13 billion) in damage to the region's tourism, transport and farming during an El Nino weather pattern in 1997/98.

'Recognising the situation will be drier than normal, the ministers now agree that: 'Let us prepare for the worst, do what we can,'' Singapore Environment Minister Yaacob Ibrahim told a news conference after the one-day meeting in the city-state.

Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Thailand offered help to Jakarta to combat outbreaks of fire, but gave no details of concrete funding or measures such as providing fire-fighters.

Asked at a news conference if other Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) members had offered Indonesia help in fighting the fires, Indonesian State Minister for Environment Rachmat Witoelar did not respond.

But Singapore's Mr Yaacob said there had been such a discussion. 'Indonesia has expressed gratitude for that and we will wait for Indonesia as and when to mobilise,' he said.

Ministers and senior officials from the five countries agreed to ban all open burning and to suspend permits for burning in fire-prone areas, but the region's track record in combating fires that lead to international pollution has been weak. Regional grouping Asean has a policy of non-interference in its members' domestic affairs and is seen by some as a talking shop.

Forest fires are a regular occurrence during the dry season in Indonesian regions such as Sumatra and Borneo, but the situation has been aggravated in recent decades as farmers, paper and palm oil plantation firms start fires to clear land. The result is smog-like haze in cities such as Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Thailand's Hat Yai, reducing visibility and increasing health problems. The ministers said Indonesia had made progress in the past three years to reduce fires.

Indonesian environmental groups said the government of President-elect Yudhoyono should put forest protection at the top of its agenda, ahead of a international meeting in Copenhagen in December to agree action against climate change.

'Every day more precious forest and peatland is being destroyed, burnt and cleared by climate and forest criminals ... leading to an exponential increase in greenhouse gas emissions that is causing climate change,' Greenpeace said in a statement. -- REUTERS

[Aspellian]

Asian stock index may rise 31% in 12 months, BNP says
Written by Bloomberg
Wednesday, 19 August 2009 10:43

The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index may rise 31% in the next 12 months amid declining risks and cost of equity, a build up in liquidity and a return to “peak profitability” in some markets, BNP Paribas said.

The regional index may rise to 550 next August, BNP strategists Clive McDonnell and Anando Maitra wrote in a report released today. Taiwan’s Taiex index may rise to 9,700, posting the highest returns among the region’s country benchmark gauges, the analysts added.

“Taiwan stands out as our top pick over the coming 12 months based on the potential upside for the market as well as the exposure it offers to the IT sector,” the strategists wrote.

The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index gained 0.3% to 418.54 yesterday, having retreated 4.9% from its year’s high reached on Aug. 3. Even after the retreat, the measure is still up 45% this year, with Asian stock markets accounting for six of the world’s 10 best performers this year.

A gain to 550 would lift the MSCI Asia index’s price-to-book value multiple to 2.1 times, higher than the current ratio of 1.7 times, the BNP strategists said. The measure rose 0.4% to 420.13 as of 10:20 a.m. in Singapore.

“Though above the long-term average, we believe this multiple is sustainable given the faster-than-expected earnings recovery, the build up in liquidity and forecast sustained increase in foreign inflows to Asian markets,” the report said.

The brokerage’s forecast for Taiwan’s Taiex also represents a 43% gain from yesterday’s close. The benchmark index has already climbed 48% this year, in part because of speculation that easing ties with China will boost trade and investment with the larger economy.

In Taiwan, investors should buy shares of Mediatek Inc., Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc., Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Wistron Corp. and Taiwan Cement Corp., the strategists said.

[millionairemind]

Asian stock index may rise 31% in 12 months, BNP says
Written by Bloomberg

Buay Hu Liao, faster go buy

[iam802]

I am tempted to put this under Singapore but felt that the report encompass more than that.

UBS has a report on Price and Earnings

http://www.ubs.com/1/ShowMedia/wealthma ... 2009_e.pdf

Page 10 of the report highlights the 'Domestic Purchasing Power' and Page 11 shows the 'Working time required to buy... ( a Big Mac and iPod Nano )'.

I wonder how many of you agree with the findings there.

[millionairemind]

October 15, 2009, 6.40 pm (Singapore time)

Asian Q3 investor confidence highest in two years: ING

HONG KONG - Investor sentiment in Asia jumped in the third quarter to the most optimistic level in two years as the region's economies revived, according to a survey released on Thursday.

On a pan-Asian index ranking investor confidence in the economy from zero to 200, the score rose to 143 points for the July-September period, up 8 per cent from the previous three months, Dutch bank ING, which carried out the survey, said in a statement.

On a year-on-year basis the figure is 66 per cent up from the third quarter of 2008, the bank said, when the global economic crisis was kicking in.

About two-thirds of those surveyed in 13 markets in the Asia Pacific region, excluding Japan, expected their local economy and the US economy to improve in the next quarter.

The poll found optimism particularly strong in export-orientated markets, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Taiwan.

Global markets plummeted and the world economy went into recession after the collapse of US bank Lehman Brothers last September.

'Many of the Asian markets continue to see an improvement in the local economies and the financial markets for 2009, and investors have been generally upbeat as a result,' said Nicholas Toovey, regional head of equity at ING Investment Management Asia/Pacific.

'Asian investors are now anticipating and are poised for recovery in the G7 economies, which we expect will happen in the first half of 2010,' he said, referring to the Group of Seven industrialised nations. -- AFP

[winston]

NATO - No Action Talk Only. And they have been doing so for the past 25 years since I started reading about these jokers. Some participants have changed, some are still there. In 25 years, if I'm still around, these jokers will still be talking....

=====================================

Asia looks to 'lead the world' with EU-style bloc

• ASEAN leaders to set up task force for connectivity masterplan
• PM Lee urges ASEAN to work on East Asia Free Trade Area
• China, India hold 'productive' talks amid spat
• East Asian nations to study free trade pact
• ASEAN leaders pledge US$200,000 to start fund for human rights
( wow ... enough money to pay for one full-time middle level bureaucrat )

HUA HIN, Thailand : Asian leaders discussed plans at a summit on Saturday to "lead the world" by forming an EU-style community, as regional giants China and India tried to cool a simmering border spat.

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama pressed his regional counterparts to move towards the creation of an East Asian bloc and to take advantage of the region's more rapid recovery from the global recession compared to the West.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 3/1/.html#

[kennynah]

i agree..... ASEAN and particularly singapore should learn their place vis-a-vis to the global picture...

better do more to help ourselves by staying relevant than to talk cock day and night about matters that we have no influence over...such as taking sides with america on their invasion of iraq... try to act like big brother and antagonizing neighbouring countries...rather making efforts to co-exist peacefully...

[millionairemind]

Nov 11, 2009
Asia risks overheating

SINGAPORE - ASIA'S rapid recovery from the economic crisis carries new risks of overheating, and governments must carefully unwind their huge stimulus injections, the head of the World Bank warned on Wednesday.

Robert Zoellick said there were signs in some markets of a 'substantial' rise in equity and property prices that could lead to asset bubbles - the very ingredients that triggered the global crisis in the first place.

'In East Asia, if you start to get a strong rebound in growth, and you've got a lot of liquidity, there is the question of whether one could start to face asset bubbles in particular markets,' he told the Foreign Correspondents Association of Singapore.

He said this was one reason why Australia had become the first industrialised nation to raise interest rates since the crisis erupted, but the response could differ among countries.

'I think one of the questions here will be the timing of how they manage the interest rates and the risk that they could get some inflation and even asset bubbles which obviously, if they become a serious issue, could undermine confidence going forward,' he said. 'It's a fine balance so I'm not suggesting there's an easy answer to this.'

Asia has rebounded faster than the rest of the world from the global slump, and there are fears the multi-billion-dollar government spending packages could be terminated prematurely as confidence returns. Mr Zoellick said Asian governments must take care in winding down the packages, which were implemented to soften the impact of the downturn that was triggered in part by problems in the US property market. -- AFP

[winston]

Foreign fund flows into Asia equities back to 2007 levels. Foreign flows into Asian
equities are back to 2007 boom levels, albeit in recent weeks they have begun to abate.

China has been the inflow leader by far. Data from EPFR Global shows that net global
fund inflows into China equities reached US$11.9 billion, year to date to Dec 2.

In comparison, flows to Singapore have been more conservative. After net inflows of
US$2.3 billion in 2007, there were net outflows of US$2.5 billion in 2008, but net inflows
of only US$820 million so far this year. (BT)

Source: CIMB