HK & China - Market Direction 01 (May08 - Oct08)

[winston]

Dow: > 300 Points
HK Pre-Market: +135
SH: Down 2.75%

1) Normally, I would buy a Call. However, SH is very weak so I may hold off first until things are a bit clearer.

2) If HSI drops a lot, say - 400, I may probably buy a call

3) If SH recovers, I may also buy a call on HK

[LenaHuat]

SSE is in very dangerous zone. I watched Pheonix TV last nite and this Chinese economics professor stunned me with his unprofessional views. He wrote a book last year abt the SSE reaching 'wan' dian He's got alot of explaining to do.

[kennynah]

Dow: > 300 Points
HK Pre-Market: +135
SH: Down 2.75%

1) Normally, I would buy a Call. However, SH is very weak so I may hold off first until things are a bit clearer.

2) If HSI drops a lot, say - 400, I may probably buy a call

3) If SH recovers, I may also buy a call on HK

that was a BIG BIG "if"...and i guess, today was not to be...

[winston]

Should have bet the other way instead and buy a put

Just before lunch, HSI was up > 300 and it ended flat..

But instinct tells me not to buy a put when the regulators are going out of their way to boost the market

[kennynah]

nevermind lah...tmrw can do it again....good luck

[winston]

Ha Ha... for the past two weeks, always tomorrow lah.

Hope is what keeps us alive !

Take care,
Winston

[kennynah]

for sure...the next 2 weeks, olympics is keeping me alive....market...will go anywhere it wants...

[-dol-]

Now that the SSE is below 2,500, sentiments are very bad and people are predicting the next down target.

But there are some newsletters writers in the US urging people to consider the bargains in China with the bright, long-term picture in mind. China did grow regularly at 10% in the 1990s but the stockmarket was quite a disappointment. This super-bull run just ended has made people forget that stockmarket do not some times go hand-in-hand with economic growth in China - although it seems to be doing now - the weak stock market now reflecting potentially slowing growth.

China being China, we can get a spike up anytime. For now, I think China over-taking the US finally on the total gold medal stakes in the Olympics seem like a better bet (even allowing for the collapse under pressure of their 2 shooters).

[-dol-]

Hope springs eternal...

+++++++++++++++++++++++

HONG KONG, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares extended their downward slump to a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, slipping 1.6 percent, led by Chinese banks after the nation's top lender ICBC <1398.HK> was downgraded by Credit Suisse analysts.

"Chinese banks have held up well even as shares in most other sectors have come crashing down in recent weeks," said Andrew To, sales director with Tai Fook Securities.

"If the banks shares fall, it will indicate the end of this round of sell-offs in Hong Kong and we can prepare for a strong rebound as soon as the China market stabilises," he said.

[millionairemind]

SSE did a strong reversal today.. It tanked about 4% in the morning and reversed to close down only 0.4%, with a small bit of time flirting with +ve territory... though just a little bit...

Perhaps capitulation has come?