Consumers Sector

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: Barclays Flags De-Rating Risk For China Staples

0916 [Dow Jones] Barclays believes that industry growth rates in China for most staples categories could slow down materially in the near future, as its conclusion from looking at growth trajectories in Japan, Korea and Taiwan is that spending on staples slows down substantially once economies reach the US$5,500-US$6,000 per capita range, which is where China will be by year-end.

"A stock-specific approach is warranted more than ever before, as the growth driver shifts from industry growth to market share gains/consolidation and margin trends."

The house adds with consensus focusing on short-term margin improvement, a downside surprise on revenue growth "could lead to a de-rating in the richly valued staples names."

Barclays says most of its top consumer picks are in the discretionary space, and among the staples, it likes Sun Art (6808.HK), China Resources Enterprise (0291.HK), Hengan International (1044.HK) and Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK).

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Appliance giants accused of cheating

China's top planning agency accused the nation's three leading home appliance retailers of launching fake promotions and cheating customers amid an intense price war, mainland media reported yesterday.

"These firms did not fulfil their promises to customers according to our investigation, and we will punish their misdeeds," the Beijing News quoted officials from the price supervisory department of the National Development and Reform Commission as saying.

Three inspection teams were sent by NDRC to probe pervasive price cuts at 360buy - an online B2C home appliances supplier - and instantly the probe extended to Suning and Gome (0493).

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 20906&fc=7

[winston]

Anti-japanese Protests in China

In the consumer sector, the share prices of several Japan-related retailers or companies with brands perceived to be Japanese have been under pressure since last week, due to the negative revenue implication of anti-Japan protests.

These names include Aeon Stores (0984.HK Hold), Lifestyle (1212.HK Buy) and Ajisen (0538.HK NR).

Aeon, attacked by angry protesters over the weekend (15-16 September), has closed 40 of its stores in China, while Springland (1700.HK NR) has announced that its Changxing Yaohan department store and its Datonghua supermarket have been damaged by protesters.

Other companies potentially negatively impacted include China Resources Enterprises (2901.HK Buy), which has formed a beverages JV with Japanese Kirin Holdings, GOME (0493.HK Hold), which sells Japanese electronics brands in its store chain, and China Dongxiang (3818.HK Buy), which generates around 30% of its revenues by exporting to Japan.

Source: DB

[winston]

Program on subsidizing rural households to buy home appliances soon to end; only a few producers back extension

The program on subsidizing rural households to buy home appliances will end in January 2013.

From Nanfang Daily, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology earlier asked producers of home appliances whether there was a need to extend the program, and realized that only a few producers would back an extension.

A majority of manufacturers deem the policy has achieved its goals and an extension will not do much to stimulate demand, according to the report.


Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

China

Retailing, F&B sales revenue grows 15%, during long holiday - MOC

The Ministry of Commerce reported that consumption market was booming during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday.

Total revenue of retailing and food and beverage enterprises nationwide amounted to RMB800.6 billion during 30 September to 7 October, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%.


Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Next round of 'home appliances for rural household' policy reportedly rolled out by end of 2012, with traditional large appliances possibly not covered
Oct 10, 2012

From China Securities Journal, relevant Chinese departments are now formulating new measures to stimulate consumption.

The next round of 'home appliances for rural household' policy may be rolled out by the end of this year but the focus will be on energy-
saving, environmentally friendly and small to medium-size products.

That means large items like air-conditioners, fridges and TV sets will possibly no longer be covered by the scheme.

A source close to Ministry of Commerce revealed that the present economic conditions prompted the policymakers to set their focus on boosting domestic demand and stabilizing growth and the unveiling of new measures to encourage consumption will be a significant event.

The source also said governmental units including the Ministry of Commerce are now setting the criteria for obtaining subsidies and product scope.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Election Outcome: Consumer

Consumer demand, in our view, may be affected materially depending on which candidate wins.

To two primary differences are the impact of higher taxes on spending under Obama, and the potential for lower costs under Obama’s healthcare plan.

We highlight the potential for a general sentiment trade around the election, as well.


Source: CS

[winston]

CN domestic demand to become major economic driver; positive on consumption sector - EFG

EFG Asset Management's senior investment fund manager Mok Man Fai, expects the Chinese economic growth to outperform the world with 7.5%-8% expansion in 2013-2014.

Mok added that Chinese domestic demand will be the main economic driver for China over the next five years; therefore, he is positive on consumption sector, particularly vehicle and food stocks.

The overall non-performing loan ratio in China was 1-2%, which was relatively healthy with 15-16% lending growth, Mok said, adding that the shadow bank issue has been exaggerated.

Mok also believes that the pick-up in third-quarter retail figures and stabilized GDP would boost market confidence.

Mok thinks there will not have any new policy coming out after the 18th National Congress, as the policy has been set out in the Five-Year Plan introduced last year.


Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

If You Could Make Only One Trade in December, This One Wins 77% of the Time By Michael Carr

The recent sell-off has done some damage to the technical picture for most stocks and sectors. Of the nine major SPDR sector ETFs, only three are above their 200-day moving averages.

Among those three, Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY) seems most likely to outperform in the next four to six weeks.

http://www.yolohub.com/trading/if-you-c ... f-the-time

[winston]

5 Amazing Global Consumer Trends

1. Fifth Avenue no longer the world’s most expensive retail location
2. China set to be the second largest luxury market by 2017
3. Viva Macau is gaming capital of the world
4. Inexpensive Indian Aakash 2 could revolutionize tablet industry
5. Emerging market residents don’t need a bank account to pay with their mobile wallet

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resourc ... er-trends/