Agriculture Sector

[winston]

Agri stocks very weak. Didnt the parrots said that it's a no-brainer to buy Agri Stocks ?

Weekly Review

Agriculture stocks were down.

MOS had an engulfing pattern, but it is tough to play it. The 50 day EMA that acted as support on the-pullback is really close at hand (less than five clicks). At the price of these options, it is hard to make any money on that play.

AGU had a tough day as well. It was heading down to try its 50 day EMA as well.

POT is struggling, coming back to the 20 day EMA. These may set up little ABCD patterns and bounce back. We will have to see. It shows there is some unrest even among the leaders. You saw some good-moving metals that reversed sharply on Friday. Some great agricultural stocks are turning over hard.


Source: Investment House

[winston]

China Edible Oil


DJ China Edible Oil Auction Demand Up; Prices Remain Low


BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's central government sold 91,586 metric tons, or 92% of the amount it offered, of rapeseed oil from state reserves at an auction Tuesday, the National Grain & Oil Trade Center said.

It sold the vegetable oil at an average price of CNY9,281/ton, down slightly from the last auction on March 15, when 65% of 100,615 tons of rapeseed oil offered were sold at an average price of CNY9,285/ton.

The state reserved were offered at prices about 8% lower than market prices, attracting traders and refineries that see prices rising in the near future amid market talk that the government has eased controls on retail prices of vegetable oils.

The benchmark September rapeseed oil futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has slipped about 7% since the peak-consumption Lunar New Year period.

China has sold about 1.03 million tons of rapeseed oil from reserves during 10 auctions since October last year.

The government is now estimated to have only 1 million-1.1 million tons of rapeseed oil in state stocks, Gong Xiqiang, deputy bureau chief at the Xiangyang Municipal Administration of Grain, said in an article published in the official China Grain News Monday.

China's rapeseed oil supply is at a critical level, as farmers are increasingly reluctant to grow the oilseed, preferring to plant crops like wheat that can be harvested mechanically and have higher yields, he said.

Gong said he expects 2011 rapeseed output to fall 13% to 9.9 million tons, less than a quarter of the nation's rapeseed oil crushing capacity of around 40 million tons.



Source: Dow Jones Newswires

[winston]

China Vegetables

DJ China Seeks To Halt Vegetable Price Slide By Boosting Sales

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China is urging major supermarkets to boost vegetable sales and encouraging farmers to bypass middlemen and market produce directly, in a bid to curb a steep slide in prices that is hurting farmers' incomes, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.

Twelve major supermarkets, including Wumart Stores Inc. (WUMSY), have agreed to boost sales, the ministry said. The China Daily newspaper said Thursday Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and Carrefour SA (CRERY) are also involved in the effort.

The ministry has also set up a "work group" to maintain prices at a "reasonable" level.

Its statement Wednesday underscores the difficulties the government faces in controlling volatile prices. The impact of an official push last year to raise vegetable output appears to be unraveling now, amid overproduction and clogged distribution lines.

Vegetable prices have fallen 21% in a month and 5.9% from a week ago, the ministry said.

The sharpest declines were seen in green pepper, which fell 20.9% from a week ago, and cabbage, chili pepper and lettuce, which fell 12%, 8.9% and 8.1% respectively.

In contrast, grain, pork, beef, metals and rubber all continued to post small increases of between 0.2% and 1.7% from a week ago.

Last year, the Ministry of Agriculture pushed farmers to raise vegetable acreage by 7% and production by 7.5%, following almost three years of little to no growth in the sector.

The directive was part of wider efforts, including price caps on cooking oil and flour, to curb a surge in food prices.

Source: Chuin-Wei Yap, Dow Jones Newswires

[winston]

Farms sector to get 50b yuan boost
Natallie Cai

Monday, November 07, 2011

China's Ministry of Finance will provide funding facilities to encourage mainland banks to extend more than 50 billion yuan (HK$61.2 billion) in loans to the agricultural sector next year, official mainland media reported.

The finance ministry will earmark 3.6 billion yuan, of which more than 60 percent- or 2.4 billion yuan - will be used to cover interest on loans, the official People's Daily quoted Wang Jianguo, general director of National Agricultural Comprehensive Development Office under the ministry, as saying.

The remainder of the funds will be granted as subsidies to update agricultural projects, Wang added.

According to the daily, the ministry has formed a partnership with the Agricultural Bank of China (1288) and Agricultural Development Bank of China to implement the proposed scheme.

Hu Yu, a Shenzhen-based analyst with Chinalion Securities, said lending to the agricultural sector would not be risky, compared with providing credit to offshore wind power and solar energy sectors where there is overcapacity.

Hu added there is room for development in the agricultural industry. James Liu, a Hong Kong-based analyst at CIMB-GK Securities Research, said the proposal would be a part of initiatives to further stimulate domestic demand as economic growth slows.

China's gross domestic product growth eased to 9.1 percent in the third quarter, year-on-year, from 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first three months.

"This might be the beginning of policy stimulus and further support for the consumption sector may be on the cards," Liu said.

Overall monetary policy in the mainland remains tight as Beijing makes strenuous efforts to keep inflation in check.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 11107&fc=1

[winston]

THE "RISK ON, RISK" OFF DANGER IS DOWN ON THE FARM

Today's chart shows an unusual example of how the big "risk on, risk off" trade is leaving many investors with dangerously concentrated portfolios…

Many investors take a position in commodities with the idea that they are "diversifying" their portfolios. And sometimes, it's a sound idea.

But as we've pointed out many times, it's a dangerous idea right now. Stocks and commodities are both moving according to investor beliefs about the global financial system.

It's either "risk on" (stocks and commodities rising) or "risk off" (stocks and commodities falling). Rather than owning diversified portfolios, many folks own "super-concentrated" portfolios.

To show you how this idea is turning up in all sorts of markets, we present a "performance chart" of the popular agriculture investment fund DBA, plotted with the benchmark S&P 500 stock index.

DBA is a diversified, "one click" way to own a basket of agricultural commodities like cattle, coffee, corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar. The S&P 500 is a broad measure of U.S. stocks.

As you can see from the two-year chart below, both assets soared in late 2010 in response to the big Federal Reserve "goosing" of the nation's credit supply. They've since backed off from their highs… and spent this year "waffling" together.

Their two-year returns are almost identical. So… to the question of whether one should own crude oil… or agriculture… or stocks? The market replies, "What's the difference?"

www.dailywealth.com

[winston]

Chinese Agriculture Sector

Since 2004, the top policy document issued by the Communist Party and the State Council at the start of the year has focused on agriculture.

Major points include stable growth of the farm sector, its technological development, better facilities and maintaining steady supply and demand.

Normally, this will stimulate a rally in farm and water treatment stocks.

Among them, First Tractor (0038), Lonking Holdings (3339) and Xinjiang Tianye Water (840) , are familiar names.

For short-term trade, pick any of these stocks when they dip.


Source: Dr. Check, The Standard HK

[winston]

Ag companies are quietly breaking out… Syngenta, Archer Daniels Midland, and Bunge hit six-month highs.

[winston]

Ag Gag Bills

For years, we've heard horrific stories about factory farms. Animals live in severely cramped quarters. Livestock receive cruel treatment. Animal waste causes environmental damage. The list goes on and on.

Now, you might think that owners of factory farms would like to show the world the inner workings of their farms to disprove the rumors.

And if you thought that, you would be wrong.

Last year, several state legislatures introduced "ag gag" bills. These bills prevent whistleblowers from taking photos or videos of conditions on factory farms.

One of these bills, introduced in Iowa, is the Whistleblower Suppression Bill. That's what they're actually calling it! I guess you have to give them points for brazen honesty.

So far, these attempts to criminalize watchdog activity have failed. But several states have already introduced new ag gag bills this year.

Which can only mean one thing: Conditions on factory farms must be just as bad, if not worse, than we ever imagined they were.

Source: HSI

[winston]

Ag commodities are avoiding the recent market selloff… soybeans, rice, oats, and cotton prices are up 5%-plus over the past month.


Source: Growth Stock Wire

[winston]

Farm group seeks US halt on 'dangerous' crop chemicals

(Reuters) - A coalition of more than 2,000 U.S. farmers and food companies said Wednesday it is taking legal action to force government regulators to analyze potential problems with proposed biotech crops and the weed-killing chemicals to be sprayed over them.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/ ... healthNews