by winston » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:43 pm
Global Aviation – Sluggish recovery
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released an updated global passenger forecast showing that global passenger traffic measured by revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs will not return to pre-Covid-19 levels until 2024, a year later than their initial projection, underscoring the harsh challenges the airline industry is facing amid a protracted Covid-19 pandemic.
Latest data highlight that travel demand continued to be driven by domestic travel.
That said, people would prefer destinations which are nearer to home, less crowded, more hygienic, and more affordable.
We believe that international travel will take a longer time to recover due to suppressed demand before the emergence of a successful vaccine.
The resurgence of Covid-19 in several countries which caused the government to reimpose travel restrictions also added uncertainties to international travel.
We believe that airlines with large exposure to domestic routes with strong domestic leisure demand, and less exposure to business travel and international business will see a faster recovery, in our view.
Air China* (753 HK) (BUY, FV: HK$6.50) could potentially benefit from the early recovery in China.
Delta Air Lines* (DAL US) (BUY; FV: US$42.50) and Southwest Airlines* (LUV US) (HOLD; FV:US$44.00) with stronger balance sheet, less reliant on international travel business are our preferred airlines among other U.S. airlines under our coverage.
Source: OCBC
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