From DBS:-
A tale of two Rs
Sector debt refinancing and recapitalising issues are likely to be the major drivers of the S-reit sector in 2009. As credit markets remain tight, access to credit takes priority over cost of funding. We see recapitalising prospects gathering momentum when asset writedowns begin. We see this as necessary to the sector but size and timing is uncertain under current market conditions.
Valuationwise,these developments appear to have been largely anticipated in the share price, however, the uncertainty could hamper share price outperformance in the near term. In terms of strategy, we prefer well-sponsored reits with good access to capital as well as those in the more resilient sectors such as retail, industrial and healthcare.Maintain buy on Parkway Life Reit and Areit and upgrade FCT on the back of attractive valuations.
Refinancing speed bumps linger: An estimated one third of the Sreit total indebtedness or $4.9b is due to be rolled over in 2009. The tight credit market environment would mean that access to funding would be crucial while increasing competition for funds would lead to an increase in cost of debt. Overall interest cost in the Sreit sector would rise above 4% from the present 3.2%. For every 50bps hike in average interest cost, DPU would be eroded by 10-15%.
Resetting the bar: We expect asset writedowns to begin as early as this year-end. Recapitalising issues are likely to gather momentum in the coming year, however, timing is uncertain as Sreits weigh the need to strengthen balance sheet against the commercial perspective of shareholder value dilution and investor appetite. Post funding, average DPU yield is estimated at 9% and P/adjusted book NAV of 0.75x, indicating that this possibility is reflected in the share price.
Amongst Sreits, those with gearing closer to the 50% LTV mark and riskier sub-sectors such as office would have greater recapitalisation possibilities. This includes FCOT with a current loan to asset ratio of c49%. In the longer run, the higher geared reits such as CMT, Areit, CCT may look to strengthen balance sheet when equity markets recover.
Be selective: Given the headwinds from refinancing and recapitalisaton rises as asset writedowns, particular in the office segment, filter through, our strategy would be selective. In terms of large cap stock picks, we prefer Areit for its long lease tenure. In the mid cap sphere, we favour Parkway Life Reit and FCT with their resilient business model and attractive valuations. Strong balance sheet and low gearing also reduces the need for recapitalising.