by winston » Mon Nov 23, 2015 11:50 am
<Research Report>BofAML Positive about Prospects for China Telcos in 2016
Bank of America Merrill Lynch is positive about China telco stocks next year and expects industry revenue/ARPU and profits growth to improve with impact from VAT and the data carry-over policy.
In addition, with less government intervention, investor sentiment is expected to improve.
CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK) is the top pick of the research house, with a target of $128, due to its best fundamentals and better earnings visibility as it enters a harvest period after heavy 4G investment.
The broker also maintained CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK) and CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK) as Buy, with a target price at $16 and $6.2 respectively since their valuations remain low. However, future TowerCo is likely to drive the valuation due to cost savings.
The impact from the mobile data carry-over policy is about RMB14 billion to RMB15 billion in August, nearly half of three telcos' monthly mobile data revenue, in line with the estimates of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
It is also expected three telcos to lose about one month's worth of mobile data revenue in 4Q15.
While the Central government will continue to mention the "Cut Tariff and Raise Speed" Policy, the research house is of the opinion that the government is unlikely to roll out significant policy interventions since the government lacks policy options.
In addition, further tariff cuts would hurt telcos' profitability. The government also worry that calls for price cuts will spill over into other industries such as electricity and natural gas.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
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