Financial Industry 08 (Aug 23 - Dec 26)

[winston]

<Research>JPM: HSBC HOLDINGS/ STANCHART More Vulnerable Amid Econ Recession

The stock prices of HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)/ STANCHART (02888.HK) have corrected by 16.6%/ 20.4% since April 2 ("Liberation Day"), underperforming the HSI by 2.1 and 5.9 ppts respectively, according to a report from JPMorgan.

The broker believes the market's bet on a global recession may lead to deeper rate cuts, reduced income for transaction-based banks and higher credit costs.

Related NewsG Sachs Cuts HSBC HOLDINGS TP by 5% to $98 on Risks of Lowering NII Guidance

In the scenario of a US and global recession, JPMorgan believes that currency center banks like HSBC HOLDINGS and STANCHART are more vulnerable than Hong Kong and Chinese banks, and so these two banks will underperform the market in the near term.

STANCHART's stock performance may be worse than HSBC HOLDINGS' because of its higher reliance on transaction-based bank income and greater exposure to economies more affected by tariffs, the broker added.

JPMorgan set its target prices for HSBC HOLDINGS/ STANCHART at $115/ $135. Both were rated as Overweight.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

Financial Stocks Flash Bear Market Signal

by Chris Johnson

The good news is that all the big banks came in with earnings per share results that were better that expected for the last quarter.

Revenue for all three grew at an average of 7%, slightly lower than last quarter reflecting lighter activity in both loans and investment banking.

The XLF shares are now trading below their 200-day moving average. That trendline is seen by many on Wall Street as the “line in the sand” when it comes to the 4–6-month technical health of a trend.

You should maintain a cautious eye on the XLF’s $42.50 price level. This level is the current price of the ETFs 20-month moving average.

That trendline is the line of demarcation between a long-term bull and bear market meaning that a close below $42.50 at the end of April will signal that the market is indeed heading towards a bear market that will drop prices another 10-20% as the earnings season continues.

Source: Money Morning

https://tradesoftheday.com/2025/04/14/f ... et-signal/

[winston]

<Research>UBS: CN Banks' 1Q Earnings Miss w/ Limited Visibility on Tariff Impacts

Chinese banks' 1Q25 earnings were weaker-than-expected, while slower earnings growth momentum reflected continued revenue pressures and less room to cut impairment losses amid rising retail NPL and the upcoming tariff impact, UBS released a research report saying.

Visibility on the tariff impact remained limited.

UBS expected Chinese banks to remain resilient amidst market uncertainty, with generally negative share price reaction to 1Q25 results.

The broker remained bullish on banks with low valuations and high dividend yields, such as CITIC BANK (00998.HK) , CCB (00939.HK) and ICBC (01398.HK).

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

<Research>G Sachs: CN Banks' 1Q25 Results Miss; Investors Expected to Focus on Whether Full-Yr Div. Can Be Maintained

The five major Chinese state-owned banks, namely ICBC (01398.HK), BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK), CCB (00939.HK), ABC (01288.HK) and PSBC (01658.HK), all reported pre-provision profits and net profits for 1Q25 that were slightly below expectations, Goldman Sachs released a research report indicating.

Meanwhile, other large state-owned commercial banks also saw net profits decline by about 2-4% YoY.

With the exception of ABC, most Chinese banks' loan growth was not as robust as anticipated, which is believed to spark investor concerns over whether full-year dividends can be maintained.

The latest investment ratings and target prices by Goldman Sachs for Chinese banks are available in a separate table.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

China Banks: What matters more? Asset quality or NIM?

We believe, given today’s share price movements, investors once again think reduced asset quality pressures matter more than NIM pressures.

Sizable profitability buffers still exist, in our view, to help banks deliver stable net profits, despite ongoing NIM pressures amidst monetary easing.

Southbound investor holdings of H-share banks continue to rise steadily.

Reiterate sector OW rating. Top picks remain BOC, CCB, CMB and CQRCB.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... D3647EBA3B

[winston]

It’s Time to Sell These Stocks

by Jeff Clark

It’s time to sell the banks.

With the broad stock market looking vulnerable to a pullback and with the banking sector in overbought territory, it’s probably a good idea to take some profits off the table.

Traders who bought bank stocks on our suggestion in early April should consider selling them now.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://tradesoftheday.com/2025/05/21/i ... se-stocks/

[behappyalways]

U.S. Banks are currently facing $482 Billion in unrealized losses, an increase of 33% from the prior quarter.
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1925717667496747423

[behappyalways]

Fujian-based bank touts Wall Street internship for 10 mil yuan deposit
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/b ... an-deposit

[winston]

Foreign shareholdings in AMMB, RHB Bank at new highs — CIMB Securities

By Choy Nyen Yiau

CIMB Securities maintained its 'neutral' call on the banking sector, citing upside risks such as lower credit costs, improved net interest margins and bond-related gains in non-interest income.

However, it flagged downside risks including rising funding costs, potential liquidity outflows and deteriorating asset quality.

The house also kept ‘buy’ calls on ABMB, Hong Leong Bank, Public Bank, and RHB Bank, supported by their dividend yields.

It noted merger and acquisition potential in ABMB and earnings contributions from Hong Leong Bank’s Chinese associate — Bank of Chengdu Co Ltd — as additional catalysts.

Source: theedgemalaysia.com

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/760727

[winston]

Malaysia Banking 5.3% loan growth in May

A pick-up in business loans growth Industry loans expanded 5.3% YoY in May from 5.1% YoY in April.

There was a slight pick-up in business loans growth, which is encouraging, though household (HH) loans growth continued to moderate.

We maintain our 2025 industry loan growth forecast of 5.0%.

We remain NEUTRAL on the banking sector, with BUYs on PBK, AMMB, HLBK and HLFG, in that order of preference.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/467666.pdf