Semiconductor shortage, oversupply and excess inventory all at once
Source: The Edge
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/656132
SIA said that regionally, month-to-month sales increased slightly in January in Europe (0.6%), but decreased in Japan (2.1%), Asia Pacific/All Other (2.7%), the Americas (7.9%), and China (8.0%).
Year-to-year sales ticked up in Europe (0.9%) and Japan (0.7%), but fell in the Americas (12.4%), Asia Pacific/All Other (19.5%), and China (31.6%).
“Both the US and China are putting enormous amounts of money in semiconductor research and production”.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen 20% this year compared to a 4% gain in the S&P 500 Index.
Global semiconductor sales reached an all-time high of US$574 billion (RM2.54 trillion) for the year, an increase of 3.3% over 2021 sales.
Historically, the PC/computer and communication end markets have accounted for approximately two-thirds of overall sales, with sectors such as automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics accounting for the remainder.
The automotive and industrial applications experienced the largest growth for the year.
The growing demand for chips in these industries, the automotive and industrial sectors will represent 14% and 12% of the average growth in chip sales by 2030, respectively, driving demand growth through the decade.
My downside target for this wedge is right around the $200 level, which is the base of the pattern.
Bearish divergence occurs when the price of a market goes steadily higher, but a momentum indicator (like the RSI) starts trending lower.
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