Cosco Ship Energy 1138 (former China Shipping Development)

Cosco Ship Energy 1138 (former China Shipping Development)

Postby winston » Wed Mar 18, 2009 1:55 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: China Shipping +3.6%, But Goldman Stays Cautious

1211 [Dow Jones] China Shipping Development (1138.HK) +3.6% at HK$6.83 post-results, but cautious outlook set to cap near-term upside, stock unlikely to regain all of yesterday's 7.1% losses.

Goldman Sachs says FY08 revenue in line with estimate, but higher-than-expected operating expenses led to weaker operating margins, with surprise coming from labor costs, port charges materially above expectations.

House remains cautious on outlook for dry bulk, tanker markets, believes macro headwinds could continue to hamper CSD's share performance over next 6-12 months; keeps Sell call, HK$3.60 target price.
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Wed Mar 18, 2009 2:08 pm

DJ MARKET TALK:China Shipping Devt Kept Neutral By Shenyin Wanguo

0231 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Shenyin & Wanguo analyst Fan Lei keeps China Shipping Development (600026.SH) at Neutral after 2008 earnings. Says 17% on-year rise in net profit "largely in line with expectations," company's forecast of 44% drop in 2009 revenue also not unexpected, given almost 40% fall in coal transport contract rate company has signed with clients for the year.

Notes company only secured rates for 70% coal transport volume, remaining 30% likely to track spot rate, which is down 50% on-year. Adds only bright spot in earnings report is move to sell 11 old vessels which may fetch tens of millions. Stock +3.8% at CNY10.90, Fan says likely due to general buoyant market sentiment.
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Wed Sep 23, 2009 2:06 pm

Not vested. From Phillips:-


Major concern: Gearing ratio is expected to rise

Capital expenditure for CSD is huge and clearly operating cash flow of the group is not sufficient to fulfill its commitment. We expect CSD will issue notes and increase its bank borrowing in the future. As a result, gearing ratio of the group may surge. Indeed the gearing ratio already rose from 23.7% at the end of 2008 to 30.7% as at the end of 1H09.


Valuation

We believe the trough is over but performance for different segments will vary, while domestic coal and international oil will recover modestly and domestic oil segment nearly remains unchanged. EPS for 2010 and 2011 are RMB0.73 and RMB0.95 respectively according to our estimation. We value CSD at 1.53x 10PB, which is 1 s.d. higher than the last 12 months average so as to reflect its gradual improved outlook, which translate to 12.77x 10PE. TP is HK$10.7. Maintain “Hold”.


Risks


We consider the following are downside risks to our relatively sanguine view:-
1) Price gap between domestic and international coal widen again, which encourage the use of imported coal to replace domestic coal and
2) The pace of crude oil import may slow down in China as crude price is no longer cheap.
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Fri Oct 09, 2009 4:06 pm

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DJ MARKET TALK: Citi Upgrades China Shipping Development To Buy

1515 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citigroup upgrades China Shipping Development (1138.HK) to Buy from Hold, raises target to HK$13.60 from HK$11.85, supported by better outlook ahead, after China coastal domestic bulk freight index +16% since end-June, with coal and grain freight rates having soared by 23% and 43% respectively.

House also raises FY10-FY11 earnings forecasts by 15%-16%, assuming 10% COA price rise and 27% volume growth for domestic coal in 2010. CSD +3.1% at HK$11.30

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Tue Dec 08, 2009 12:09 pm

Not vested. From UOBKH:-


Earnings Revision

Based on our revised assumption of 15% and 10% yoy improvement on blended coastal coal rate and average international oil shipping rates for 2010 and 2011, we raise our 2010 and 2011 EPS forecasts from Rmb0.62 and Rmb0.86 to Rmb0.74 and Rmb1.04 respectively. We maintain our 2009 EPS estimate of Rmb0.39.


Valuation/Recommendation

Base on the revised earnings forecasts, the current share price implies 16.8x and 11.9x 2010F and 2011F PE multiples. As the only shipping name with high visibility of earnings growth in the Asia-Pacific, CSD’s 1.6x 2010F P/B is quite attractive as compared with other regional spot-market players, which are trading at an average forward P/B of 1.3x, and also highly below its historical average P/B of 2.2x.

Moving forward, we expect the market to re-rate CSD if the 2010 COA coastal coal freight rate beats expectation, which will be announced in March next year. Maintain BUY on CSD and raise our target price from HK$12.50 to HK$16.50, based on 2.1x 2010F P/B, implying 23% upside to the current share price.
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Wed Jan 13, 2010 12:41 pm

Not vested. From UOBKH:-

Valuation/Recommendation

CSD is still our top pick in the Asia Pacific shipping universe for two reasons:
a) CSD could enjoy benefits for at least one year from the short-term rally in coastal coal freight rates,
b) the tanker market has a more assured recovery in 2010 than the dry bulk and container segments.

Share price surged more than 25% in seven trading days and the shipping sector has also been outperforming. As valuations of other shipping names have risen, CSD’s 1.8x 2010F P/B and 17.4x 2010F PE is still attractive.

We expect the market to rerate CSD if the 2010 COA coastal coal freight rate beats market expectation,
which is likely to be another share price catalyst.

Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$16.50, based on 2.1x 2010F P/B and implying a 15% share price
upside.
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Fri Jan 15, 2010 11:52 am

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: MS Raises China Shipping Devt Target To HK$15.97

1128 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley raises China Shipping Development (1138.HK) target price to HK$15.97 from HK$13.18. Says house's new price target implies 18% upside, supporting Overweight rating.

Adds, with earnings bottoming-out in 2009, house envisions significant 80% earnings recovery in 2010 on improving coal demand, and spot coastal shipping rates; increasing tanker exposure with fleet expansion; and imminent launch of VLOC business with vessel deliveries.

House expects further re-rating to be driven by earnings recovery cycle amid improving macro conditions. Stock last up 0.4% at HK$13.98.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:45 am

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DJ MARKET TALK: CSD Down 2.4%, Murky Outlook But UOB Keeps At Buy

1115 [Dow Jones] China Shipping Development (1138.HK) perhaps clouded by management's cautious comment on 2H outlook, saying 2H shipping market conditions "unlikely to be promising."

Stock last down 2.4% at HK$11.24 on modest volume, despite posting 1H net profit +60% on-year at CNY979 million, which in-line, marking 47% of full-year earnings now pegged by Thomson Reuters.

UOB KayHian keeps CSD at Buy, target price of HK$16.50 based on 2.0X FY11 P/B, says CSD currently valued at 1.3X FY11 P/B, which attractive vs regional shipping average, given CSD's "highly visible earnings growth as compared with peers."


Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Tue Oct 19, 2010 3:49 pm

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DJ MARKET TALK: China Shipping A La Niña Beneficiary - UOB

1509 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: China Shipping Development (1138.HK) "is the prime beneficiary of a cold winter," says UOB KayHian; explains, based on meteorologists' forecasts, 2010/11 winter "very likely to be extremely cold again" due to La Niña, as result coastal coal shipping rates likely to be repeat of 2009/10 winter, due principally to strong coal demand in south China.

Potential port congestion in north. Adds, moderate BDI rebound in 4Q10 might not ease investors' concern on huge orderbook, but strong rally driven by multiple catalysts could fuel share price in near term; in addition, valuations of dry bulk shipping stocks vs other sectors turned more attractive on lagging performance.

CSD +0.4% at HK$11.44; UOB rates stock Buy with HK$16.50 target.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: China Shipping Development 1138

Postby winston » Tue Oct 19, 2010 3:53 pm

DJ MARKET TALK:China Shipping Devt Earnings Defensive Vs Peers-TF
Oct 6, 2010

1227 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: While China Shipping Development (1138.HK) not totally immune from volatility of shipping market, its earnings have been relatively defensive compared with other shippers, Taifook says.

"It has been expanding its business scope to cope with China's rising shipment demand for commodities." Adds, its diversified shipment mix helps reduce earnings volatility, as various types of business tend to have different economic cycles.

Keeps at Buy, target at HK$13.60 (1.9X forward P/B, which inline with its 10-year average valuation).


Source: Dow Jones Mewswire
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