Chalco 2600

Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Tue Aug 25, 2009 3:57 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: MS Keeps Chalco At Underweight; Still "Expensive"

1529 [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley shares some analysts' view that Chalco's (2600.HK) earnings set to recover in 2H; thinks Chalco will be profitable in 2H, says there is still chance company will achieve full-year EPS forecast, especially with management's focus on lower costs.

Still, MS doesn't agree with buying Chalco at current levels; says stock trades at 1.9X 2010 P/BV with 4% ROE, 49.8X FY10 P/E makes shares even less attractive vs Alcoa at 25X. Even if applying house's bull-case pricing assumption, Chalco would trade at 29X FY10 P/E, "still looks expensive."

Keeps Underweight call, HK$7.73 target price
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:45 pm

Chalco raises alumina prices by 6.3 pct

HONG KONG, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) (2600.HK)(601600.SS) raised spot alumina prices by 6.3 percent to 2,550 yuan ($373.3) per tonne from Tuesday, the second hike in just about one month, according to its website. (www.chalco.com.cn)

Chalco, the country's top aluminium firm and the world's third-largest alumina producer, increased spot alumina prices by 4.3 percent to 2,400 yuan on Aug. 1.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:36 am

Am surprized ..

China's Chalco raises alumina prices 3.9 pct

HONG KONG, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) raised spot alumina prices by 3.9 percent to 2,650 yuan ($389) per tonne from Wednesday, the second hike this month, according to its Web site (www.chalco.com.cn).

Chalco (2600.HK)(601600.SS), the country's top aluminum firm and the world's third-largest alumina producer, previously increased spot alumina prices by 6.3 percent to 2,550 yuan per tonne on Sept 1.

Source: Joy Leung; Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 30?rpc=611
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby kennynah » Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:38 am

W : why are they doing this?
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Wed Sep 30, 2009 10:08 am

Not sure. My understanding is that there's an over-supply...
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby kennynah » Wed Sep 30, 2009 10:29 am

hmmm....if oversupply, shouldnt chalco be lowering price instead of increasing prices 2 times within one month? i'm not following...
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Tue Oct 27, 2009 6:57 pm

Not vested.

HONG KONG (MarketWatch)-- Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:2600 (HK:2600 9.01, -0.24, -2.60%) /quotes/comstock/11i!almmf (ALMMF 1.14, -0.06, -5.00%) , also known as Chalco, said its third-quarter net income totaled 21.3 million yuan ($3.11 million), or 0.0016 yuan per share, compared to 182.9 million yuan, or 0.014 yuan per share, a year earlier, the company said in a filing to Hong Kong stock regulators Tuesday.

Revenue in the quarter fell to 17.1 billion yuan, from 19.1 billion yuan a year earlier

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chalco ... 2009-10-27
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:45 am

Not vested. From Phillips:-

Risk

Macro-economy may bottom again and suppress the aluminum price.

The thermal coal and other cost items are adjusted upwards dramatically.


The valuation level is reasonable

Based on the hypothesis of increasing sales volume and aluminium price, we expect the revenue will be RMB63.7 and 78.5 billion, with the -17% and 23% increase. And the Company will make a loss of RMB 1.24 billion in 2009 and regain a profit of RMB3.21 billion in 2010, converting into the EPS at RMB -0.09 and 0.23. And its BVPS will stand at RMB 3.99 and 4.17.

Because of the unstable performance, we valuate the Company according to the P/B ratio. The average P/B is 1.88 for the CHALCO, which also equals to the middle level for historical international metals valuation, but still lower than present average 3X. Taking consideration of inflation expectation and long-term growth of Chinese metals industry, we give the Company P/B 2 x 2010 BVPS, with 12-month target price at HK$9.50 and the Hold rating.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:16 am

Waiting to short this counter.

DJ MARKET TALK: MS Ups Chalco To Equalweight; Target HK$9.20

0945 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley upgrades Aluminum Corp. of China (2600.HK) to Equalweight from Underweight, raises target to HK$9.20 from HK$7.73. Expects aluminum prices look well-supported at current levels, while its new target implies 10X FY11 base case EPS and 11X on normalized EPS.

Notes Chinese overcapacity not a major concern, with re-start of idled capacity from late 2008, China's monthly aluminum production rose to 1.36 million tons as of November 2009, highest level in past 3 years. "Whilst we expect China to become a net exporter again, the potentially higher raw-material and energy costs, driven by the country's reliance on imported thermal coal and bauxite/alumina, should keep exports under control."

Raises its FY10 EPS forecast to CNY0.62 from CNY0.28, FY11 EPS to CNY0.81 vs CNY0.64. Stock down 5.4% at HK$9.82 at pre-market.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Tue Jan 19, 2010 10:45 am

Aluminum Corp of China Ltd. Chalco) <2600.HK> could be in focus after the firm warned on Monday that it expected to post a loss in 2009 due to an oversupply of the metal.


Source: Reuters
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