Chalco 2600

Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Thu Mar 05, 2009 2:32 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: Chalco Power Tariff Talks May Hit Metal Price -CS

1210 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse says Chalco's (2600.HK) management confirms starting negotiations with power firms to cut power tariffs; tips cost savings could boost Chalco's EPS by CNY0.19-CNY0.29/share. House also cites industry magazine Metal Bulletin as saying Beijing may allow up to 15 smelting firms to do the same, expects cost savings for whole sector could reach US$0.10-US$0.15/lb, vs sector's current loss at US$0.15-US$0.20/lb.

Says, "implication for global aluminum prices nevertheless would be negative, as the lower cost for Chinese smelters supports a lower floor price for global aluminum prices." House doesn't give ratings for Chalco, as it is advising Chalco's parent Chinalco on Rio Tinto deal. Chalco +2.1% at HK$3.98.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Tue Mar 10, 2009 9:56 am

DJ MARKET TALK: Citigroup Starts Chalco At Sell, Target HK$3.03

1509 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citigroup starts Chalco (2600.HK) at Sell, target at HK$3.03, based on 0.7X 2009 P/B in line with global peers. Notes Chalco still trades at premium to global peers, appears unjustified.

"We struggle to come up with any reasonable valuation methodology to justify a higher target price. Hence, we are ever more convinced that the shares should fall further before moving up." Says market oversupplied, faces more aluminum price downside.

Says as production costs fall, prices could fall further given gloomy demand outlook. Says at best, upside appears limited as supply could resurge despite aggressive production cuts. "Chalco, as China's biggest aluminum play, will benefit from long-run development of China's aluminum industry and government support for nonferrous metals industry consolidation. However the company and industry face more challenges than opportunities in the near term." Shares down 0.3% at HK$3.77; HSI down 2.6%.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Sun Mar 29, 2009 7:58 pm

China's Chalco posts 1.66 billion yuan loss in Q4

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (2600.HK) (601600.SS), the world's No.3 alumina producer, swung to a worse-than-expected quarterly loss and warned of a difficult 2009 as global aluminum prices plunged and costs rose.

Chalco, China's top producer of alumina and primary aluminum, reported an October-December net loss of 1.66 billion yuan ($243 million), compared with an adjusted 1.49 billion yuan profit a year earlier, based on Reuters calculation from previously released data.

The net loss, calculated from previously reported quarterly earnings, compared to an average forecast for a net loss of 260 million yuan from 13 analysts polled by Reuters Estimates.

Full-year net profit plunged 99.9 percent to 9.2 million yuan from a restated 10.75 billion yuan the previous year, Chalco said in a statement on Sunday.

The company had warned its 2008 net profit may more than halve on high costs and weak demand in the second half.

Chalco shares have rebounded 140 percent from their October lows on a series of positive government policies, including state purchasing of aluminum and lower power tariffs to protect the domestic industry.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Mon Mar 30, 2009 10:47 am

This one jumped from 3.70 to 5.40 within a short period. At the end of the day, it's still about earnings..

=========================================================

Chalco shares slide 10 pct after Q1 loss warning

HONG KONG, March 30 (Reuters) - Shares in Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (2600.HK) (601600.SS) (Chalco) tumbled in early trade on Monday after the country's largest primary aluminium producer warned of a loss in the first quarter of this year.

The stock was down 10 percent at HK$4.66 as of 0225 GMT.

The company said it may post a first-quarter 2009 loss as it works off stockpiles built up last year when costs were relatively high.

Chalco President Luo Jianchuan also told reporters, however, that the company may restart some of its halted capacity in the second half of the year as consumption recovers.

Chalco reported an October-December net loss of 2.57 billion yuan ($376.2 million), compared with an adjusted 1.49 billion yuan profit a year earlier, based on Reuters calculation from previously released data.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Tue Apr 07, 2009 2:32 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: GS Turns More Positive On Chalco On Demand Pickup

1132 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs says it's turning more positive on Chalco (2600.HK) as one of key beneficiaries of demand pick up, which is still at early stage, as management says downstream seeing pickup with fabrication business operating rate up to 70% vs 40% in early 2009; notes management also says government stimulus started to flow through with power grid purchases.

House adds supply response is time consuming and costly as management indicates restart costs for idle capacity higher. House says management focus on cost cutting effectively lowers breakeven price to CNY12,000/ton from CNY13,500/ton vs industry average of CNY12,500/ton.

Keeps stock at Buy with target price of HK$6.60. Stock down 6.5% at HK$5.30.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:13 am

Metals giant sinks into red by Mandy Lo, The Standard HK

Aluminum Corporation of China (2600), the mainland's biggest producer of the metal, reported a net loss in the first quarter of 1.89 billion yuan (HK$2.14 billion), down from a net gain of 1.25 billion yuan a year earlier, on declining turnover. Loss per share was 13.97 fen.

Revenue fell 24.5 percent year-on- year to 13.9 billion yuan, partly due to a loss on assets impairment of 665.5 million yuan and investment loss from associated firms and foreign currency exchange losses totaling 55 million yuan.

It reported exceptional gains of 210 million yuan during the period, including a fair value gain of 236.8 million yuan from held-for-trading financial assets and financial investments.

Cash received from product sales and rendering of services shrank 34.7 percent to 19.2 billion yuan. Net cash flow from operating activities rose 92 percent to minus 45.9 million yuan from minus 601 million yuan.

Chalco said net accounts receivable surged by 114 percent to 2.8 billion yuan over the first three months of the year.

The company had cash of 13 billion yuan as at March 31, down 17.8 percent from 16.3 billion yuan at the start of the year.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:20 am

Do you know what you are buying ? The analyst experts are now asking you to buy commodities and cyclicals, saying that the economy is recovering. They forget to mention to you that prices have already gone up significantly ...

============================

Chalco sees H1 loss on low demand, prices

Rally may cool on earnings reality check

HONG KONG, July 27 (Reuters) - Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) (2600.HK) (601600.SS) said late on Sunday it expected to see a loss in the first half of 2009 due to low aluminum demand and prices on the back of the financial crisis.

The company said its utilisation rate was low while international and domestic demand for aluminum from the property and automobile industries had decreased significantly.

It posted a 2.41 billion yuan ($35,280) profit in the first half of 2008, based on Chinese accounting standards.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Tue Aug 04, 2009 12:07 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: Chalco +3.4%; Price Hike A Positive Surprise - GS

1128 [Dow Jones] Chalco (2600.HK) +3.4% at HK$10.00, adding to 7.2% jump yesterday on news of alumina price hike; volume remains strong at HK$608.6 million, immediate cap eyed at intraday peak of HK$10.36. Goldman Sachs notes this 3rd alumina price hike since Chalco's January 2009 price cut, reflects higher downstream aluminum production.

Adds, price hike "a positive surprise," estimates earnings impact for Chalco would be 2.4% enhancement for this year. "More importantly, the read across is the positive implication for the key earnings driver, aluminum fundamentals," GS says
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Wed Aug 05, 2009 2:51 pm

After the price has gone up from HK$2 to HK$10, the "experts" are now asking you to buy..

=======================================================

DJ MARKET TALK: Citigroup Upgrades Chalco To Buy; HK$12.90 Target

1235 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citigroup upgrades Chalco (2600.HK) to Buy from Sell on higher metal prices, better demand outlook, return to profitability. Says Chalco raised alumina price by 4.3% Monday. House reads this positively as Chinese aluminum smelters accepting higher costs implies their better profitability, positive outlook on demand.

Still, house maintains estimates, pending 1H09 results due later this month. Adds, with higher prices and impressive cost control, expects Chalco to be profitable in 2H09. House also raises target price to HK$12.90 from HK$6.20. Stock last down 1.1% at HK$9.88.
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Re: Chalco 2600

Postby winston » Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:36 am

While the "expert" Analysts are asking you to buy ..

Chalco falls to first-half loss on lower prices

Kathy Wang, The Standard HK

Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (2600), known as Chalco, said it recorded a net loss in the first half due to lower aluminum prices and weaker metal demand.

Net loss for the first six months ended June amounted to 3.52 billion yuan (HK$3.99 billion), compared with a net profit of 2.39 billion yuan in the same period last year. Interim revenue fell 29 percent to 27.98 billion yuan, based on the Chinese accounting standard.

The loss was 1.6 billion yuan for the April-June quarter, versus a 1.1 billion yuan profit last year, according to figures derived from the earnings statement.

Aluminum prices have surged 32 percent in Shanghai this year after the government bought the metal to limit losses for smelters, and its 4 trillion yuan stimulus package improved demand.

Macquarie estimated a net loss of 700 million yuan in the second quarter, compared with a 1.8 billion net loss in the first quarter. "Mathematics suggest aluminum demand is more cyclical to economic structural changes than copper, with supply far more abundant. With China's declining exports and struggling manufacturing industry, copper demand is more stable and less risky than that of aluminum," Macquarie said in a report on July 31.
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