China Coal 1898

[winston]

Not vested anymore

China Coal Energy Jan-May coal output 41.41 mln tons, up 15.1 pct

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China Coal Energy, the country's second largest coal producer, said it produced 41.41 mln tons of coal during the January to May period, a rise of 15.1 pct year-on-year.

The company's coke output was up 36.7 pct year-on-year at 1.72 mln tons in the five months to May, it said.

Domestic sales grew 24.3 pct to 31.64 mln tons for the period while exports were up 7 pct at 6.83 mln tons.

[winston]

Not vested.

China Coal Group H1 sales jump 19 pct on year
Wed Jul 2, 2008 10:21pm EDT

Oil hits record above $144 on U.S. inventory drop

SHANGHAI, July 3 (Reuters) - China National Coal Group Corp, or China Coal, posted a 19 percent climb in coal sales in the first half from a year earlier to 52 million tonnes.

Coal output at China's second-largest coal producer, after China Shenhua Energy Co (601088.SS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (1088.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), rose 14 percent from a year earlier to 57 million tonnes, it said on its website www.chinacoal.com.

Domestic sales in the first half jumped 27 percent to 43 million tonnes. The group also exported 9 million tonnes of coal.

China has been struggling to provide enough thermal coal to its power plants, especially since the arrival of the summer's peak electricity consumption season.

Coal prices have been soaring this year in China, with the benchmark spot price for 5,800 kcal/kg grade at Qinhuangdao, the country's top coal shipping port, hitting a record of 990 to 1,000 yuan ($144.50-145.90) per tonne on Thursday.

China Coal also said its revenue in the first half jumped 51 percent on the year, with gross profit up 75 percent at 5.7 billion yuan.

Shares in the group's Hong Kong-listed arm, China Coal Energy Co (1898.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), fell 6.7 percent on Thursday morning to HK$12.50, compared with a 1.5 percent drop in the benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI.

[winston]

Not vested anymore

China Coal Energy H1 net profit 3.55 bln yuan vs 2.28 bln

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China Coal Energy Co Ltd (SHA 601898; HK 1898) first half to June results: Opg revenue - 26.61 bln yuan vs 16.93 bln
Net profit - 3.55 bln yuan vs 2.28 bln
EPS - 0.27 yuan vs 0.19
NAV/share - 4.46 yuan vs 2.64
Return on net assets - 7.88 pct vs 8.2 pct (1 usd = 6.8 yuan)

[winston]

Not vested.

Its parent, state-owned China National Coal Group, bought back 4.05 mln of its A-shares in Shanghai yesterday.

[winston]

Not vested.

China Coal Energy Q3 net profit up 11 pct on higher output, selling prices

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China Coal Energy Co Ltd (SHA 601898; HK 1898) said third quarter net profit rose 11.38 pct year-on-year to 2.19 bln yuan due to higher output and selling prices, which offset stock investment losses.

China Coal Eenergy provided no sales data for the third quarter in its financial results filed with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The company said earlier that it produced 75.36 mln tons of coal and 3.15 mln tons of coking coal in the first nine months, up 9.6 pct and 27.8 pct year-on-year respectively, while coal sales stood at 68.11 mln tons, up 10.2 pct.

Operating revenue in the third quarter rose 49.45 pct year-on-year to 15.57 bln yuan, while operating revenue for the first nine month rose 54.2 pct year-on-year to 42.18 bln yuan.

Earnings per share for the third quarter came in at 0.17 yuan, unchanged from a year earlier. EPS for the first nine months stood at 0.44 yuan, up from 0.36.

China Coal, the country's second largest coal producer, said it had a mark-to-market loss of 1.104 bln yuan in the first nine months on its 40 mln A-shares of China COSCO Holdings Co Ltd (SHA 601919; HK 1919).

The company did not provide an earnings forecast for the rest of the year.

A-shares of China Coal closed at 7.09 yuan on Friday, down 3.67 pct.

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK:China Coal Dn 6.9%;Dec Sales "Shockingly Bad" -UOB

1424 [Dow Jones] China Coal (1898.HK) down 6.9% at HK$5.27 midday, worst-performing among 3 coal stocks, likely weighed partially by company's weak December coal sales, which down 26% on-month, is "shockingly bad" according to UOB KayHian, as weakened power demand weighed.

Still, says channel checks, recent industry data point to demand recovery, thanks to cold weather, improved demand from steel, cement industries. While keeping Buy call with target price of HK$8.00, says "extreme volatility" of commodities will give investors chance to wait for better entry level. China Shenhua (1088.HK) down 5.7% at HK$15.28, Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK) down 6.4% at HK$5.23

[winston]

20090116 Macquarie China Coal Energy
Still the top pick in the sector

Event
We review our earnings estimates to reflect new commodities price forecasts.

Impact
Cutting our international coal price forecasts. We cut our 2009 international thermal coal price forecasts by 29% to US$75/tonne and our 2010 forecast to US$70. China Coal exports less than 10% of its sales and therefore the impact on earnings is limited.

Spot prices rebounded and inventories declining. Spot coal prices at Qinhuangdao port have rebounded 10–15% since mid-December. Inventories at Qinhuangdao have also fallen from >9mt at the peak to less than 5mt now. This is driven by seasonally stronger demand as well as reduced coal shipments from major producing provinces like Shanxi. Power producers have also reported falling inventories by 7–8 days in the past few weeks – though inventories remain well above the historical norm of two weeks.

Domestic contract negotiations remain in stalemate. The annual contract price negotiations that took place in December ended with the five major IPPs walking out of the negotiations without signing any contracts. Major producers, led by Shenhua, have reportedly asked for a ~15% price rise while IPPs are demanding a ~10% price discount. At some stage, the government may have to step in to facilitate an agreement. We currently forecast flat contract prices in 2009 with which we remain comfortable.

Huge cash balance and valuation discount to Shenhua. We like China Coal Energy for its large net cash balance (~HK$2.5/sh) and valuation discount to Shenhua (1088 HK, Outperform, HK$15.64, TP: HK$18.5). China Coal is now trading at a 45% discount to Shenhua on EV/EBITDA terms and at a 30% discount on P/BV terms.

Earnings revision
We cut our 2009-10 EPS forecasts by 5–7% to reflect lower export prices.

Price catalyst
12-month price target: HK$8.00 based on a EV/EBITDA methodology.

Catalyst: Further clarity in domestic contract price negotiations.

Action and recommendation

We maintain our Outperform rating and target price of HK$8. We recognise that the macro-economic outlook remains weak and this may weigh on sentiment in the short term. That said, companies like China Coal have strong competitive positions relatively stable earnings, and look attractive at current valuations.

China Coal Energy is our top pick in the sector for its domestic contract-driven sales mix, large net cash position and valuation discount to Shenhua.

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: HSBC Cuts China Coal To Underweight From Neutral

1508 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: HSBC downgrades China Coal (1898.HK) to Underweight from Neutral, keeps target price at HK$4.00 based on average global coal peers' P/E of 6X vs previous 5X. Says weakening industrial growth outlook in China implies rising risk of coal oversupply, sees challenge for company to achieve growth, maintain 2008 earnings in 2009.

Forecasts China Coal to achieve 10 million tons of production growth each 2009, 2010, lower than company's output expansion plan of 15 million tons each year. Stock down 2.3% at HK$5.62 vs HSI's fall of 3.2%.

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: Macq Cuts China Coal To Neutral From Outperform

1112 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Macquarie downgrades China Coal Energy (1898.HK) to Neutral from Outperform, noting stock doubled over past three months, now trading at 15.7X 2009 PER, 12X 2010 PER.

"We believe the fundamentals for coal producers will remain robust; however, valuations are no longer cheap at current levels and we struggle to identify positive share price catalysts."

Expects thermal coal outlook stable, prices to remain within 10% range; says "comfortable" major producers will realize 12%-13% demanded price rise despite no official contracts signed with top five IPPs.

Raises target to HK$10.30 from HK$6.80 after increasing 2009-11 EPS forecasts by 13%-17% to reflect higher pricing assumptions, switching to DCF valuation from EV/EBITDA. Shares down 0.9% at HK$8.96; HSI down 1.3%

[winston]

China Coal Energy Co Ltd (601898.SS) said its net profit for the third quarter dropped 36 percent from a year ago to 1.4 billion yuan.

Source: SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS