China Cosco 1919

China Cosco 1919

Postby winston » Wed May 21, 2008 11:23 am

Shares in China COSCO (1919.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), the country's largest shipping conglomerate, fell 4.8 percent after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby winston » Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:04 am

China COSCO Holdings sees H1 net profit up over 90 pct yr-on-yr

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China COSCO Holdings Co Ltd (SHA 601919; HK 1919) projected first half net profit growth of over 90 pct year-on-year under Chinese accounting standards, with growth coming from all business lines amid a strong international freight market and cost controls.

In the first half of 2007, the shipping company booked a net profit of 7.05 bln yuan, or 0.84 yuan per share.

It is due to release audited first half financial results on Aug 27.
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby winston » Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:14 pm

Not vested. From UOB-Kay Hian:-

Snippet – China COSCO Holdings

Earnings surprise - 1HFY08 net profit growth exceeds 90% yoy
China COSCO Holdings’ (CCH) 1HFY08 net profit (under PRC GAAP) surged more than 90% yoy to Rmb13.40b. The earnings were better than our expectation and represented more than 57% of our full-year net profit forecast.

Robust dry bulk shipping market recovery in 1H08. We believe that the impressive growth in earnings was mainly attributable to the robust dry bulk shipping market recovery in the first half of this year. The average Baltic Dry Index (BDI) grew 61% yoy to 8,557 in 1HFY08 on the back of robust dry bulk shipping demand. In FY07, dry bulk business accounted for 87% of CCH's
operating profit.

As dry bulk business being the major earnings contributor for CCH, the company is benefitting from the higher dry bulk freight rates in 1HFY08. In 1QFY08, CCH chartered-in 38 Panamax vessels (about 3m dwt capacity) when the BDI reached its trough at 5,600-6,000. Therefore, we
expect the low charter-hire expenses may enhance CCH's profit margin and earnings.

Reasonable valuation. We maintain a positive outlook on BDI this year in light of favourable global dry bulk vessels demand-supply balance until 2009.

CCH is currently trading at 7.5x FY08 PE and 6.4x FY08 EV/EBITDA. With FY06-08 CAGR of 68% for earnings, its valuation is reasonable. Maintain BUY.
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby winston » Tue Jul 08, 2008 2:55 pm

Not vested. From GS:-

BROKER CALL - China Cosco H-shr price to see short-term rebound - Goldman Sachs


BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Goldman Sachs said it expects China Cosco Holdings' Hong Kong-listed shares to stage a short-term rebound after the company announced its first half results would rise more than 90 pct year-on-year.

However, any share price rebound is likely to be short-lived, Goldman Sachs said, adding that investors should sell on share-price strength. Goldman Sachs has a "neutral" rating and 21.0 hkd six-month target price on China Cosco.

"The positive announcement affirms our view that the stock is due for a short-term rebound surrounding results, as we believe that market sentiment has become too pessimistic. However, we expect any rally to be short-lived and maintain our tactical short-term view to sell into strength," it said.

China Cosco's shares were down 1.25 pct at 19.0 hkd this morning in Hong Kong.

The company is due to announce its audited first-half to June results on Aug 27.
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby winston » Mon Jul 28, 2008 11:06 pm

China Cosco slumped 1.10 hkd or 5.64 pct at 18.40 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to 'sell' from 'neutral', citing expected oversupply in freight capacity in the coming years and weaker earnings expectations for 2009 and 2010.

It cut its target price on China Cosco to 16.0 hkd from 21.0.
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby winston » Thu Jul 31, 2008 11:32 am

HONG KONG, July 31 (Reuters) - Shares in China's largest shipping firm, China COSCO , soared 4.7 percent on Thursday on a JP Morgan valuation upgrade, and rumours of inclusion in Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index .
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby winston » Thu Jul 31, 2008 11:56 am

STOCK ALERT - China COSCO surges in Hong Kong on broker upgrade

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - China COSCO Holdings was sharply higher after JP Morgan raised the stock to "overweight" from "neutral".

The stock was up 0.90 hkd or 5.03 pct at 18.8.

JP Morgan said the recent share price correction in China COSCO has overshot beyond fundamentals.

It has a 2008 target price of 22.0 hkd on the container shipping firm.
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby -dol- » Thu Jul 31, 2008 1:47 pm

The bulk carriers are doing better than the container liners recently.

Bad times ahead for the container lines - with Europe-Asia trade badly affected by the slowing European economy. May be Europe is going to be worst off than the US? An hawkish ECB is not making it any easier.
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice! Please do your own research and due diligence.
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby winston » Fri Sep 12, 2008 2:09 pm

Not vested. From UOB-Kay Hian:-

Dominates iron ore shipments in the world. China COSCO’s (CCH) iron ore shipping volume amounted to 113.9m tonnes in 2007, or 14.5% of global market shared. The company dominates iron ore shipments in the world.

Sichuan rebuilding. China’s Sichuan rebuilding is estimated to require 37m tonnes of steel in the coming three years. It translates into additional demand of 20m tonnes iron ore per year in 2008-10. We believe this additional demand has a positive impact on CCH’s dry bulk business as it accounts for about 2.3% of the global iron ore seaborne trade in 2008. According to Clarkson’s data, iron ore seaborne trade is expected to grow 8.9% yoy to 945m tonnes in 2009.

( Winston's comments: GS mentioned that steel demand may decrease due to a slowdon in property development in China )

Dry bulk - locked in 76% and 20% of 2008 and 2009 revenue. CCH has locked in 76% and 20% of 2008 and 2009 revenue respectively. For 2008, the average fixed freight rate has increased 40% (about US$57,000) while revenue days rose about 3%. To manage its risk profile and maintain earnings visibility, CCH aims to lock in 50-60% of revenue days for 2009 by end-08. The average fixed freight rate for 2009 is about US$40,000 (largely same as in 2007) given they are longerterm contracts.

Bearish scenario.. Even if we assume the worst scenario that the average BDI drop to 3,500 in 2009, CCH’s net profit is estimated to exceed Rmb11b in 2009 (equivalent to 7.8x 2009 PE).

Valuation is attractive. The stock is trading at 2.7x 2008 PE and 1.8x 2008 EV/EBITDA, with an attractive 9.1% dividend yield for 2008. We regard the stock’s valuation as attractive and believe the share price has factored in all bad news. In our view, this is a good buying opportunity. Our target price is HK$24.50.
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Re: China Cosco 1919

Postby stilicon » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:47 pm

From the first 6-months report, I can read that China COSCO (1919.HK) gave a 0,18 RMB dividend for the full year of 2007. That would make a yield of about 1,8%. How come that the analyst of UOB-Kay Hian sees a div. yield of 9,1% for 2008 ? Did the company announce something certain that I missed ? Or is it just a wishful guess ? If someone knows something about that, I would be grateful to learn or correct my views.
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