China Mobile 0941

China Mobile 0941

Postby kennynah » Tue May 20, 2008 9:27 am

20 May 2008 01:24 GMT

Hong Kong-listed China Mobile April net new subscribers 7.41 mln
BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China Mobile Ltd net new subscribers in April totaled 7.41 mln, bringing the overall number of subscribers to 399.55 mln as of the end of April.
The company has added 30.21 mln net new subscribers since the end of 2007.

The company did not provide further details.
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby winston » Wed May 21, 2008 12:18 pm

Not vested. Am concerned that margins are coming down due to their expansion into the rural areas.

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BROKER CALL - China Mobile kept 'buy' on subscriber growth - Daiwa

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Daiwa Institute of Research maintained a "buy" call on China Mobile with a six-month target price of 159.80 hkd, noting that the company's subscriber additions so far this year indicates that it could easily beat full-year projection.

China Mobile achieved an average net addition of 7.55 mln subscribers per month for the first four months of this year, against Daiwa's full-year assumption of 7.2 mln per month, it said.

"Even if we use China Mobile's monthly net-add guidance of 6.67 mln, our forecast net profit would be reduced by only 1.3 pct to 111.9 bln yuan, or 28.5 pct year-on-year growth," Daiwa analyst Marvin Lo said.

"We think the chance of China Mobile's monthly net adds dropping to 6.67 mln for the full-year 2008 is not high," Lo said, reasoning that mobile penetration in China at 42 pct is far from the 70 pct saturation point.

Added to this, China Unicom is not competing actively with China Mobile, he said, noting that China Mobile still has a share of 83 pct in net-subscriber additions. Moreover, China Telecom and China Netcom are not promoting personal handyphone systems (PHS), the analyst said.

Lo also added that Daiwa maintain its view that "management reshuffling would be unlikely to change the competitiveness of individual telecom companies."

He was referring to the expected industry restructuring in China.

At 11:50 am, China Mobile shares were down 1.3 hkd or 0.99 pct at 129.4 in Hong Kong.
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby winston » Tue May 27, 2008 12:18 am

Did not manage to buy the put on China Mobile. That put went up 45% today :(

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From reuters:-

China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator by subscribers, plunged 8.2 percent to HK$114.90.

Since news of its parent's restructuring first came out Friday, the stock has fallen 12 percent, reducing its market capitalization to HK$2.3 trillion (US$295 billion; €187 billion) from HK$2.6 trillion (US$333 billion; €212 billion).

Goldman Sachs analyst Helen Zhu downgraded the stock to "sell" from "neutral." She said the restructuring of China's telecom sector threatens the company's dominance in the mobile market.

But UBS and Merrill Lynch advised investors to accumulate the stock, saying China Mobile would still have an advantage given its much bigger operational scale and execution power relative to other operators.
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby kennynah » Tue May 27, 2008 12:39 am

wasted...else would be like kena toto 4 + 1....
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby winston » Tue May 27, 2008 2:18 pm

Bought some calls today as I feel that the knife has hit the ground and the selling is a bit overdone. Short term trade only..

===========================================

From UOB-Kay Hian:-

BUY CMHK on share price weakness.

If we use 10% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth rate, the four cases yield DCF target price of Rmb160.00, Rmb137.10, Rmb138.20 and Rmb113.70 (HK$180.00, HK$154.20, HK$155.50 and HK$127.90) respectively.

As the DCF value of the two intermediate cases as well as the average of the four scenarios still stands at around HK$155.00 level, we maintain our target price of HK$160.00 for CMHK until we have sufficient information to update our forecast.

Given that the share price of CMHK had pulled back 12% over the past two trading days, it is fairly valued at 17.7x FY08F PE. Therefore, we believe long-term investors should begin to consider accumulating the stock.
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby winston » Tue May 27, 2008 2:20 pm

From UOB-Kay Hian:-

Technical Analysis

CMHK (941):HK$114.90

The stock has resumed the downtrend since hitting a high at HK$137.80. In response to the news of the restructuring of China’s telecom sector, the stock fell at a faster pace in the last two trading days. Yesterday, it even gapped down on skyrocketing volume to close at HK$114.90, shy of the 0.618x retracement level of 113.50 and the 250-day moving average at HK$113.60.

Given the long dark candle and the downside gap, the downward momentum is not over. However, it is not necessary for the stock to immediately re-visit the earlier low at HK$98.50 unless the key support at HK$105 is breached.

Note that the volume yesterday was 139m shares or 3.9 times of the 2-year daily average volume of 36m shares. A similar magnitude of selling pressure is unlikely to be seen in the near future. Besides, the Slow Stochastics (Overbought/Oversold Indicator) of the stock is moving towards the support level in the oversold region. Thus, we expect the selling pressure of the stock
to decelerate.

The easing of the selling momentum could at least enable the stock to consolidate near HK$105 where the prior upside gap bottom is situated. We call it a key support area because this area coincides with the intersection of the downtrend resistance line and the long-term uptrend support line, extended from the low at HK$73.50 in Aug 07.
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby winston » Wed Jun 04, 2008 12:13 pm

Not vested. China Mobile rating not immediately impacted by industry restructuring - Moody's

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Moody's Investors Services said its "A1" local currency issuer rating on China Mobile Ltd will not be immediately impacted by China's telecoms industry restructuring.

"Given the extent of China Mobile's current dominance with 70 pct market share and nationwide coverage, Moody's believes, despite the restructuring, that China Mobile can maintain its leading position over the medium term," Moody's vice president Laura Acres said in a statement.

China Mobile's parent, China Mobile Communications Corp (CMCC), is participating in the industry restructuring exercise, which will ultimately see the creation of a more level playing field as three carriers will compete across fixed-line and cellular platforms.

CMCC is acquiring fixed-line operator China TieTong Telecommunications Corp (CTT). Given the low level of fixed line penetration in China and CTT's relatively small size this is not expected to have a material impact on the financial profile of CMCC, Moody's said.

The rating agency added that China Mobile will probably be awarded a TD-SCDMA 3G license by the government after the industry restructuring is completed.

"It is possible that any 3G license awarded to China Mobile will be for the TD-SCDMA standard rather than the more commonplace WCDMA or CDMA 2000," the statement said.
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby winston » Tue Aug 12, 2008 11:32 am

Not vested. This could be the reason why HK is weak today. China Mobile is one of the heaviest weighted stock on the Hang Seng index.

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STOCK ALERT - China Mobile sharply lower after Citigroup cuts target price

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - China Mobile Ltd shares were sharply lower after Citigroup cut its target price to 120 hkd from 150 on concerns about regulatory risks and increased competition in the mainland's wireless telephony market.

At 10:49 am, the stock was down 2.55 hkd or 2.58 pct at 96.45, off a low of 96.30, while the Hang Seng index was up 2.55 points or 0.0 pct at 21,860.09.

However, Citigroup maintained its "buy" rating on the world's largest mobile phone operating company by customer count, saying that concerns in the market about China Mobile's first-half earnings are likely "overdone".

It said while the company is facing weak macroeconomic conditions and "regulatory headwinds", the slowdown should be limited, and net profit probably grew by 42 pct in the first half.
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby winston » Wed Aug 13, 2008 7:43 am

Not vested.

String of bad calls piles pressure on China Mobile

Benjamin Scent

China Mobile (0941) shares continued to fall yesterday after Citi and Nomura cut their target prices for the stock, joining UBS in saying the possibility of slower growth in the sector could dent earnings of the country's largest wireless operator.

Citi also lowered its profit forecasts for the red chip, saying it has a bright future but faces a rocky road in the short term.

In a note out yesterday, Merrill Lynch said China Mobile shares are a "trading sell."

Technical analysis points to additional downside for the stock after it broke through the HK$100 support level, the investment bank said.

"Could we see [China Mobile] at HK$80?" Merrill asked.

It said a damning report in the Financial Times on China Mobile's 3G offering added fuel to its concerns about the company.

The rollout of the next-generation network, based on China's homegrown TD-SCDMA technology, is being led by China Mobile's parent company.

But there is an increasing likelihood that the listed company will have to bear some of the capital expenditure, Merrill said. The mobile giant could also have trouble selling its new 3G services such as video calling, mobile data, and mobile television.

After testing the new service, local staff at the FT Beijing bureau were quoted as saying "it sucks," "it's too terrible," and it's "too awful."

Trial users described TD-SCDMA phones - made by mainland-based vendors - as "too ugly" and complained that they went off for no reason.

Although 3G commercial trials were launched just before the Olympics in an attempt to showcase streaming broadcasts, the FT said video quality on older 2G phones is better.

If China Mobile's parent company asks the listed company to provide support for TD-SCDMA, there would be a "significant downside" to EBITDA margins and earnings over the next two years, due to the inevitable handset subsidies, Merrill warned.
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Re: China Mobile 0941

Postby winston » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:37 pm

BROKER CALL - China Mobile 'sell'; risks remain after price correction -Goldman

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Goldman Sachs has maintained its "sell" rating on Hong Kong-listed China Mobile, saying that despite a 7-pct price correction over the last week, the company is still facing uncertainties relating to China's homegrown 3G telecom standard, TD-SCDMA.

It said in a note to investors that worries about second-quarter revenues have already been priced into China Mobile's shares, but with the fate of TD-SCDMA still unclear, it is "too early" to start buying.

"We think China Mobile still faces downside risk on TD-SCDMA clarity, 3G licensing and possible regulatory newsflow and rising competition, with no positive catalysts," the note said.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the listed company's responsibility for rolling out TD-SCDMA networks across China will be more onerous than expected, and will possibly include capital as well as operating expenditure.

It said that it still prefers China Mobile's rivals, China Unicom and China Netcom, both rated "buy". China Telecom is rated "neutral".
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